First, I did just call myself a Sage but I'm referring to my ability to spice this whole Draft thing up a bit. Second, let me reminisce for a minute on last year’s HITS & MISSES. A list which does not include guys I am TBD on, nor lacking candidates that lack measurable gusto in boldness of calls. This list is based off of on-field performance, not my mocked versus finalized drafted position.
My HITS include [DT] Aaron Donald - #5 on my Final Big Board; and [OT/OG] Joel Bitonio - #17 on my BB. After year one both players played their way into PRO Bowl consideration, with Donald getting the official invite with the Rams. And even though Bitonio did not get selected, he was a Top 3 graded OG for the Browns. I wanted to push Donald higher and higher, and peaked at #3 overall before taking him down a few slots. His game is insane for a 3-technique and the Rams got a stud for 10 years. Bitonio on the other hand slipped to the early 2nd round to the Browns. While at the time I had hoped they would reach for a WR, at #17 on my board he was clearly a pick I liked.
Call it patience or ego (probably the latter) I only have two MISSES to mention. [OT] Morgan Moses - #10 overall; and [LB] Anthony Barr - #35 overall. As an offensive lineman Moses did not do much to part the Red(skins) Seas. Dude barely saw the field as injuries and lack of football smarts kept him from playing. I’m jumping ship on his ability and don’t think he’ll rebound. Barr on the other hand was a freaky athlete who did not test as spectacularly as I thought he would at the combine. His Pro Day testing was better, but I thought he was too inexperienced to be drafted high. I never said he can’t play, just wouldn’t draft him high. But Zimmer being the genius that he is, took him and used him as a double-A gap rusher at LB. There was exceptional progression with Barr and I was very wrong.
So in summary I like my bold predictions and am willing to stand out from the crowd. But in the cases where I missed, I’m more than willing to own up and move on. I want to become better at this draft assessment process, and can only do so by learning from mistakes.
So without further ado, here we go...
Top Edge Defenders
Group Assessment:
As a football fan I cannot help but salivate over the potential in this year’s bumper crop. This edge defender class is stacked. Quite possibly the deepest group I’ve seen in 10 years. From the top of the draft, to the middle rounds, and all the way through the late rounds… value will be found above and beyond typical years. But what is noticeable here is the evolution of the edge defender. The college game has become predicated on spreading the wide-hashed field more than ever, to create individual mismatches on size or speed. Coupled with the up-tempo offensive philosophies, the days of smash-mouth control-the-clock football are ebbing away, towards maximizing the athletic tendencies. Premium size (insert penile joke here) and nastiness of players is more of a nice-to-have nowadays than a likely tendency. As a reactive posture NFL teams have had to adapt or be left behind. In today’s college game you will not find many 43 defensive ends like Bruce Smith and Reggie White, they are very rare. What’s more likely is that you draft a guy that has most of the core attributes, and you try to develop his body into a 43 defensive end. That is if, a big IF, you have not updated your defensive philosophy to accommodate today’s state of football.
Insert 34 defenses, over a more customary 43. Today half of the NFL is now playing a base 34, or hybrid variation of. But not your father’s 34, a la the old Steelers of the 80s and 90s with Dick Lebeau, where zone concepts were used to misdirect where the stress points were. The old school Steelers featured the 34 OLB, who were miscasts in a typical 43 defense. They were usually not quite as big, not quite as strong at the POA. But because they were typically left exposed to linemen, they still were asked to hold the edge against the run. But the league has since passed those days by. Today the 34 has evolved much more.
As a whole edge defenders fall on a spectrum of their ability to play in space, stoutness against the run, and ability to disrupt the QB (but not universally ranked in any order). That of course dictates how they are used, and more importantly which teams will crave their projected ability.
Positional Rankings: Edge Defenders 1.0
1. Shane Ray [Missouri] – Currently #1 overall on my Big Board. Off the snap quickness and bend is elite. He engages at a 45 angle allowing for him to counter inside at will. Had it not been for his foot injury DURING THE DRAFT PROCESS!!!, he would have posted better measureables. He is a rich-man’s Chris Avril, which is saying a lot. He is a natural 43 Leo DE, and can play a 34 rush LB in a pinch. Relentless pass rusher with ability to hold up at the POA. STUD!
2. Randy Gregory [Nebraska] – To me he is a pure 34 OLB whose special ability to drop into coverage is rare for an elite pass rusher. I have Anthony Barr concerns about his ability to play any position in the 43, now or ever… but I’ve been proven wrong before. Also the Combine is an athletic job interview, but testing positive for marijuana only measures his stupidity.
3. Frank Clark [Michigan] – This could very well be my Morgan Moses pick this year. I’m crazy high on this domestic abuser, who has a better chance of going undrafted than reaching Round 1. He is a Chupacabra of sorts, the mythical 43 DE in the flesh. 6’3”, 270 lbs, 34 3/8” arms length, low pad level, fires out of stance, blocked more by wishful thinking and luck than anything… my heart just skipped a beat.
4. Vic Beasley [Clemson] – Combine darling of the year. Nike’s SPARQ scoring was made for guys like him. His frame is absolutely maxed out, so little I’m not sure if he can get better athletically. But he needs to be coached up, and used appropriately. If not he will play like Barkevious Mingo (very raw). Another scary comparison is Vernon Gholston, looks like Tarzan… but plays like Jane.
5. Dante Fowler [Florida] – Everyone has Fowler as their #1 edge guy. I disagree in similar but different ways, kind of like Jarvis Jones a few years back. Similar to Jones, he grabbed a lot of headlines playing for a big program. Different from Jones he only posted 5.5 sacks last year, prior to getting 3 sacks against ECU in the Birmingham Bowl. In college he was allowed to freelance into and out of any position, picking on 2-on-1 situations and picking on poor linemen.
6. Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree [Kentucky] – Considering the buzz and legitimate appeal of Dupree’s game, I’m probably too low here. He’s an exceptional athlete with a ton of explosion. But my concern with him is his lack of agility and short-area quickness. Teams would be wise to have him rush upfield a majority of the time.
7. Preston Smith [Mississippi State] – Sure Scott Crichton 2.0 but sign me up. Can “effectively” play multiple positions up and down the line. I would even argue that he can play NT on passing downs, or be in a 2-point stance in a 34.
8. Owamagbe Odighizuwa [UCLA] – Name is straight out of an announcer’s nightmare, game on the rise. His best football is ahead of him for sure. In 2 years, could be the best pass rusher in this class. Not sure of his position, which is more to do with the fact I think he can do it all. Another athletic freak.
9. Eli Harold [Virginia] – Probably more Jane than Tarzan. Offers a decent ceiling, but the floor is very low on him. Harold doesn’t disengage well from linemen and is very susceptible to getting washed out of a play. Needs time to work on his game and lower half, more of a project.
10. David Tull [Tennessee-Chattanooga] – It was a toss-up between 5 guys here for the 10th spot. I went with a white guy for some diversity. But in all honesty he is a small-school stud, with ability pouring out of his ears. 42.5” vert, 11 ft broad jump, white men can jump (present company excluded).
I'm not sure how much I'll do this, so give me good reason to keep this going. (i.e. - Reply)
I don't see why you won't just give your opinion on all the players. I don't think anyone is going to use your draft board as a cheat sheet for the fantasy draft. Did your draft analysis affect last years fantasy draft? I think not!
ReplyDelete