Sunday, May 11, 2014

Post Draft Thoughts



Like filling out a perfect NCAA bracket or hunting a chupacabra, correctly predicting the NFL Draft is an exercise in futility. I stole the aforementioned line from an article I recently read, but it's painfully accurate. All the research, analysis, educated guesswork that is put into a mock draft is thrown out the window, when the clock starts.

Now that the draft has come and gone, all that matters is how much production each team can squeeze out of a draft pick. In typical years, if a team can get 2 starters... or 3 years after a draft they have 4 players still on the roster, it was a very good draft class. Below I reflect into my (Vikings & Browns centric) post-draft thoughts. [I will add the Vikings breakdown later]

Cleveland Browns

With the pending Josh Gordon suspension, nay sayers will point to the lack of WR picks as the biggest downfall of the Browns draft. But in Ray I trust. I have zero doubt that GM Ray Farmer knows what he is doing. Even though the draft process is fast and chaotic, he appears to be intelligent, strategic, and prepared. When Farmer says that a draft strategy has to be based on team building not "perceived" gap filling, I agree.

"Trader Ray" as his NFL counterparts have come to call him, traded 3 times in the first round, to nab two boom-or-bust PLAYMAKERS. First, (CB) Justin Gilbert is a press-man CB that can play on the outside on an island. Opposite Joe Haden, these two will form an elite CB duo that will allow HC Mike Pettine's attacking 34 defense to produce a boat load of QB sacks and turnovers galore. Gilbert needs to clean up his footwork, which can be coached up, but has the ball skills, eye discipline, and raw athletic ability will be a scary risk-reward proposition for QBs that are looking to challenge him.

The second first rounder was (QB) Johnny Manziel, which is far from the play-it-safe strategy I prefer in the first round. But the gamble on greatness between Gilbert and Manziel is well worth the draft assets if either (or both) become reality. Manziel has the requisite hand size and arm strength to play 8 games on the shores of cold and windy Lake Erie. Defenses will try to keep him in the pocket, but OC Kyle Shannahan's offense will have plenty of bootlegs that will keep LBs and Ss honest as they have to honor Manziel's running ability. We'll see how this turns out.

At the top of the 2nd, most folks thought it would be high-way robbery if the the Browns took WR Marquise Lee... which was the popular choice. Myself, I preferred WR Allen Robinson out of Penn State, as I bought into the concerns with Gordon's suspension and lack of outside WRs. Either way, Farmer and the Browns went in another direction with (OT) Joel Bitonio out of Nevada. I was very very high on Bitonio so I think the value was there. He also makes the offensive line insanely good, and more importantly very nasty.

(ILB) Christian Kirksley was the last impact inside backer on the board, and WR Donte Moncrief was still there. I had Moncrief higher on my board, but that seemed to be counter to the entire league. Other than Moncrief I didn't think there was a smart WR option in the 3rd, so I'm not complaining... even though I want to. In Kirksley, I hear he is physically gifted and has "it" characteristics that could lead to something special.

In the late 3rd, Farmer was fearful that the Broncos, Vikings, Ravens, and Falcons would take (RB) Terrance West before thieir pick at the top of the 4th. Trader Ray then traded up with the Niners to get a solid RB to back up frequently injured Ben Tate. Sure the trade was a bit lop-sided in San Francisco's favor, but Farmer was proven correct when three RBs came off the board before their original 4th round pick.

In the entire 3rd day of the draft, they walked out with only one pick... but oh what a pick. My boy (CB) Pierre Desir, out of small school Lindenwood, was the selection. Obviously, in no way was this a "need" pick. Ray Farmer was sticking to his board, and saw amazing value at a marquee position. Desir is a height/weight/speed guy with amazing length. His fluidity is evident, as he can flip his hips and run with most WRs. Then you add his elite ball-skills to high-point and pluck the ball... he will be the steal of the draft.

Of note, for the second year in a row, the Browns have traded for a future draft pick with an in-division rival. Obviously this is not a common practice, and comes with immediate risks, but it worked last year with the Steelers. This year they traded with the Ravens, giving up a back end 7th rounder for a 2015 6th rounder. The Ravens then selected the slipping diminutive slot WR out of Wake Forest Michael Campanaro. So we'll see if this comes back to haunt them. But walking into next year's draft, the Browns have an extra 1st, 4th and 6th rounder.

So what about the WR position? I think the answer will come from [1] Trading a low 2015 draft pick for someone; or [2] Picking up a a soon-to-be cut player after the draft. Any WR that is cut will see Cleveland as a very attractive destination, as the allure of playing time, supporting cast, and Johnny Manziel will be very attractive.

Teams I am looking at are:
  • Indianapolis: With TY Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and newly added Donte Moncrief... I see the Colts cutting/trading DaRick Rodgers or Lavon Brazill.
  • Packers: Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis, and Jeff Janis are 3 WRs now joining Jordy, Cobb, and Jarrett Botkin. Chances are that one of these guys is expendable.
  • Patriots: They have a ton of mediocre WRs, and can't possibly roster as many as they have. So I think Kenbrell Thompkins or Josh Boyce are obvious possibilities.

Minnesota Vikings : NEXT

2 comments:

  1. Wow Gow. Could you drool over the Browns draft anymore. Good God. Get a room with Ray Farmer already.
    I'm putting these comments in the bank for the next year or two; some of them are going to be fun to revisit:

    Ray Farmer - appears to be intelligent, strategic, and prepared

    Justin Gibert - Opposite Joe Haden, these two will form an elite CB duo; defense will produce a boat load of QB sacks and turnovers galore

    Joel Bitonio - makes the offensive line insanely good

    Pierre Desir - amazing value; amazing length; fluidity is evident; can flip his hips and run with most WRs; elite ball-skills; he will be the steal of the draft

    Any WR that is cut will see Cleveland as a very attractive destination

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