Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Statistic Porn (not to be confused with sadistic porn, Crabs)

There are many different genres of porn and that's what makes it so special -- there's something for everyone. People get aroused by all sorts of different things. Some genres make them travel 700 miles on a Tuesday night to meet a 12 year old boy home alone, Chris Hanson and a Dateline NBC news crew...others only make you have to visit a website.  Well this site is one of those sites. Here is some hot and dirty stuff you can look at work without getting written up which will show in your performance review. Target Corp. calls it, "areas for opportunity". In most jobs it's called, "FIND A BOX AND PUT YOUR SHIT IN IT BEFORE SECURITY GETS HERE TO ESCORT YOU OUT".

FACT: In October 2012, PornHub raised over $75,000 for the Susan G. Kohman foundation in which they refused to accept.

Ok. So it's the holidays, work is slow, no one is around and most of you are at home anyway. I decided to make the most of my time and spit out some hastily collected stats. I figured we have reached our 10 year mark as a league which is pretty impressive. This league has stood the test of marriages, babies, job changes, manager meltdowns and "tradegate". As such, I thought it would be interesting to look back with some statistics. Excuse my lack of excel expertise...


We can look at this and say a championship is worth 'X" as much as a 3rd place showing, but without the scrutiny, those are the standings as they area at the moment. Keep in mind I have a 7th grade education on how to work Excel. I literally am in awe of those of you that can make excel do the things I've seen. You have a transferable skills the will stand the length of your career until an Indian guy named "Jeff" in Calcutta takes your job. Enjoy the ride.

Fun facts observed:

  • All time "points" are at a moment of contention. two way tie for first and a three way tie for 2nd.
  • Bill Fredrickson way the unquestioned leader in the first 5 years.
  • Ned is having what some would call a "dry spell". Sorry Ned. Get married, poop out a kid and your chances improve greatly.
  • The less I consume at drafts, the better I do (See: 2010 draft -- bid $20 on Philip Rivers thanks to the liquor store downstairs from Jerks's place and a German black licorice liquor).



Since Yahoo doesn't keep complete records of leagues past 2007, here are "playoff" records of the league so far. Again, the stats could be skewed depending on how you rank your final "place".

Fun facts observed:
  • A minuscule point separates 3rd overall and the current holder of the bronze, NooShoo.
  • Ned is no longer in the basement when the playoffs area factored in.
  • Kenni holds a strong lead overall without a finding his way to the basement next year.

To be fair, I added in the full 10 years that only Yahoo had records of 1st through 4th place. If you can add in your consolation place, waste 5 minutes and find out if you would rank higher. Again, 10 points for 1st place down to 7 points for 4th.

Fun facts observed:
  • When Ike gets in the playoffs, he wins championships. Scary.
  • Kenni's J magic finally wore off after 7 years of playoff runs.
  • Whitebread's 7 years of playoff no-shows...continues. Baby Whitebread to change this.
I leave you with memories of drafts past in anticipation of the next...
This projection TV was a great memory...and continues to be one for the family that watches it now in Somalia.

Dallas left out due to Lass't Place Trophy possession. 


Jerks upset about something "super important".

Next to come: Best pick ups and dumps of the year...

All year end rankings were taken from Championship, 3rd Place and Consolation matches.  When it slows again I might invest the time to go through each year...might be interesting to see how they compare. If you can find the point totals for previous years please share. Can't find it.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Tuesday Update: The Semifinals and Sadness

Gentlemen,

I may add to this throughout the day, but I thought I'd get something up here...

I'm not exactly happy today now that another season of BOTT Fantasy is over for me, this time since 2009 that I'm not playing in the semis... That isn't a humblebrag or anything - I'm just saying it's been a while since I've been out of it this early and it sucks.

But I'm objective enough to realize this... The remaining four teams (Gow, Dallus, Fredricks, and Crapswell) are the four best teams. They may not have all been the best throughout the year (specifically Andy), but it's the four most formidable teams today.

Had I advanced, I think I would have ranked myself 4th our of 4 - possibly 3rd because I think Dallus might be in trouble - but you could make a legit argument that Andy has the best team right now. A lot hinges on the health of Julio.

I'm going to add to this later today (specifically some playoff matchup stuff), but let's also use this as a thread to piss, moan, and whine about your fantasy season.

What move(s) do you regret? How could you have been better? What will eat away at you all offseason? I have my own that I'll share a little later...

Friday, December 5, 2014

Dog Shit on a Tropical Beach


60% of you see beauty, 40% of you see a dog with diarrhea 
60% of you are still alive and have an incentive to still care about this season.  You see delicate shades of pink and blue that could be fantasy stardom beginning to shine through. 40% of you only see your season as K-9 feces slowly being washed away by a tide of tears.  Whether you fall into the upper or lower half of this picture, I think we should say goodbye to the season as we always do with a end of year "fuck you" or "thank you" as we have before.  There's no doubt some anxiety about your season and possibly even a little jealousy depicted below.

From left to right: New Shoe, Dallas, Coconuts
Whitebread (newborn and all at home) showed up last Monday and made a U-turn at the douchey high school hangout also known at BWW when he realized he was the only one in attendance.

Artist rendition of last Monday at BWW, Whitebread pictured in the foreground.
I pledge to not allow this to happen again (this season), but also made an individual plea to you all for a gathering on December 22nd back at a place that still knows that 1st quarters mean free beers and are open for commerce. Pourhouse in downtown. Cincinnati vs. Denver 7:30 p.m.  This contest will provide at least 5-6 legitimate fantasy players going that evening that could very well decide a championship victory along with a 3rd place showing.

So far, all but Dallas look to be in attendance with Jerks listed as questionable.

I was on campus last night for BOTT's "Light the Row" which I was surprised to find no less than 80 people with a 3:2 female to male ratio at the house.  On our way back to Village Wok for a nostalgic meal, I walked past Sally's and to my dismay the inside of the place looks like a bombed out building from WWII. Not sure how the fuck a place like that doesn't get their shit together with over 18 months to do so (also there's now ZERO fucking parking in the area now unless you wanna pay $10 event parking in a ramp), but I digress.

December 22nd, 2014.  I'll be farting on all the seats to keep them warm for you...

Pants optional. Dresses encouraged for some. Honk honk.




Thursday, December 4, 2014

FINAL Power Rankings


Gentlemen,

There's a lot to get to here, so let's not waste time...

Total Points Scored

Total Points Against

Above are your full-season Total Points Scored & Against. There may be a few discrepancies with these numbers and Yahoo as I have not included the scoring changes from the past few weeks. As a reminder, these numbers are just the data used to build the analysis.

Also before we get to the Rankings, below are the current Payouts-to-Date for this season.

Payouts-to-Date

There is still $700 to be won via 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Place. The bottom 4 are highlighted because their final place in the standings is locked, regardless of what happens in the consolation.

Alright, let's get to the rankings:

Power Ranking
The best team from the 2014 regular season was Dick Dallus. I know not everyone looks at these numbers every week like me, but Gow was in the #1 spot for quite a while, and only finally relinquished it in the last week.

I can also say that the group at the top tightened up quite a bit in the last month. There was a time when Dallus/Gow were both running away from the pack, but that is no longer the case.

All-Play Record

The All-Play record is the same rankings in a different format, showing what records would be if every team played all opponents every week. You can see that we actually had two ties: 3rd Place (Bill and me) and 6th Place (Kenni and Ned).

What's fairly remarkable about these numbers this year is their general consistency with the final standings. Bill and me are actually a little better than where we ended and Andy/Kenni are a little worse, but we all made the playoffs.

There really isn't anyone that should have been in that isn't, and vice versa. Ned could have an argument, but he was tied for 6th which puts him squarely on the bubble... and that's where he found himself in the last week.

The bottom 3 teams were all much worse than the rest of the league, and each was on their own level. To provide some context, the worse team in our league last year was Ned, who scored a 6.23 on the Power Rankings.

So Crabs had a below average year at 6.46, which would have made him the worst team last year - this year he was 8th.

Whitebread had just a terrible year: 7.15 ties what had previously been the worst team since I started tracking these numbers. Coincidentally, that was Whitey's own record back in 2012.

But Coconuts... my oh my. EIGHT POINT ONE FIVE. That means that on average, he was WORSE than the 3rd worst weekly scorer. Coconuts only had one week when he was in the top half of weekly scorers, which happened to be Week 1. Since then he's always been in the bottom half, and 10 of those weeks he's been in the bottom 3. We really have not given the proper credit to him for how historically bad his team was. We will likely never see a team this bad ever again.

Now... I'm having fun, but context certainly needs to be considered here. Both Whitey and Coconuts mortgaged most of their core players with three weeks left and that plays a role in these numbers. But just a small one...

Strength of Schedule
Lastly, your strength of schedule. Again, a late change at the top as Coconuts overtook me (when I had lead this basically all season) in the final week.

Nothing too notable here, other than (to no one's surprise) Kenni finds good fortune with easy schedule once again. He no doubt is grinning from ear to jewish ear reading this.

One more thing...
I did one more special thing for the year-end: I made dot plots for each team based on their Power Rankings.

They're fairly simple, but here's how to read them: the x-axis is Weekly Rank, and the dots represent the number of times you finished in that spot. For example, if you were Top Point Scorer twice, you should have 2 dots over the 1. So good teams will have dots on the left, and bad teams on the right.

Enjoy.

Monday, December 1, 2014

Monday Update: What You Play For


Gentlemen,

That is such a great speech in the middle of a really dumb movie.

THAT'S GONNA MAKE THE FUCKIN' DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WINNING AND LOSING, BETWEEN LIVING AND DYING!

The time is finally here. The playoffs are about to begin. The entire season is a precursor, a demanding trial for the right to be here right now. Everything that has happened the previous 13 weeks no longer matters. It was simply prerequisite for the right to play this week.

If you can muster up 3 more wins (or in Gow/Dallus case, just 2), you will earn the right to be called "champion". Your name will be engraved on the trophy (which will one day be purchased...) and it can never be removed.

Can you feel the excitement???
Now... four of you are no longer with us, some mercifully thankful to be done. That is the cost of the regular season - 4 teams do not earn this chance. And that makes this a sad day for us all. Not only have we lost 4 brethren, but it means the end is very near for us all as well.

Coconuts*, Whitebread**, Crabs, and Titwarmer*** - your season ends today. Godspeed.

* Coconuts is your winner of the L'Ass'T Place Trophy. After being in the Championship game for the past 2 seasons, Coconuts is back in familiar territory. I believe this is his third or fourth L'Ass'T Place. How do you feel about that Juan?


** There was a time when I thought one of the stronger fantasy players in our league was Whitebread. He claims a championship from before this league was formed. He had probably the best team I ever saw lose to Mark Brunell. He was a mainstay in the postseason. When he spoke, he seemed to know what he was talking about... But right now, that is all ancient history. The last time Cracker made the playoffs was 2009 - the year Obama was inaugurated and that dude landed a plan on the Hudson. Make sure you remind him of that when he's cocking off at next year's draft.


*** There still exists a very small chance that Ned slips in. This would involve Gow picking up a WR in tonight's game and said player scoring 26 points. Gow has already told me he's not going to do so, but want to be transparent about this.


For the rest of you... this is what we play for. As Mike Tice once said, "Enjoy the season." Only one of us is going to win this thing. But we made it this far. If you can't have fun playing this game with the elevated stakes, then why play?

Good luck to you all, except whoever plays me. I hope your team dies in a fiery plane crash.

Yes, all of them. Separate plane crashes. Not a terrorist attack, just coincidental terrible piloting decisions.

And any players that I have on said planes are still ok. Really flukey.


Please note: the GIF above is actually a test plane, intended to crash. I actually googled "Fiery plane" to see what was out there. It turns out there's a lot. But when you watch them, they are definitely not what I would deem to be "funny" considering ... you know ... people are dying.

Ok I only hope all your players get seriously injured in said plane crashes.

The Games
NOTE: I'm going to do a playoff preview tomorrow or Wednesday, touching on each team. It will also include full-season Power Rankings. Because of this, I don't want to get too much into projected playoff stuff here. Just a review of the regular season finale.

Jerks (147.44) defeats Gow (121.56), or does he? Gow benched Roddy yesterday when news broke that he was OUT. That allows him the opportunity to swap anyone on his bench for a WR playing tonight, if we wants. The only available WR projected to score more than 0.0pts is Brian Hartline. Assuming this result holds, it will have saved my season and put me in the final playoff spot. Gow has the #1 seed locked up.

Crabs (112.46) currently leads Titwarmer (105.34), a result likely to change after tonight. Ned still has Tannehill and Wallace playing tonight, while Crabs has something called Caleb Sturgis. Ned is an 84% favorite, which if all results hold would make him the first above-.500 team to NOT make the postseason since we went to 6 teams.

Crapswell (150.82) edges Dallus (140.20) in matchup the featured two destined playoff teams. This could very likely be a preview of a semifinal next week. Andy has quietly built himself into a serious contender.

Also, rumor has it Andy was texting Gow trying to convince him to pick someone up to knock me out of the playoffs. Hey Andy...


Fredricks (177.90) destroys Coconuts (94.54), mercifully putting him out of his 2014 FF misery. Juan got 40 points from DeAnde Hopkins and still managed to be nowhere near close to winning. Bill has an outside chance to hit 200pts, which would be the highest single-week total of the season.

Kenni (123.06) leads Whitebread (102.88). Whitebread still has Chris Ivory playing tonight, but Yahoo calls this one 99% for Kenni. I do not agree with those odds, although I still think Kenni is the favorite. Should Whitey actually pull this out, Kenni would fall down to the 6th seed.

Tomorrow's Standings

Should Yahoo's projections hold, here would be the final regular season standings:

Place Team Record
1st Gow 9-4
2nd Dallus 8-5
3rd Crapswell 8-5
4th Kenni 8-5
5th Fredricks 7-6
6th Jerks 7-6
7th Titwarmer 7-6
8th Crabs 5-8
9th Whitebread 3-10
10th Coconuts 3-10

I just want to point out a couple teams here... At separate points throughout the season:
  • Bill was 1-5
  • Andy was 2-4
  • Ned was 2-6
Every season I stress the importance of not giving up, continuing to fight, and playing to the last game - this is why. Teams and seasons do get turned around. What looks bleak midway through the season does become an afterthought come playoffs. Remember this next season when your team sucks in Week 6 and you're considering a fire sale...

Tonight

I look forward to the texts about where people are meeting.

Spoiler alert: you're meeting at BWW.

Enjoy the game, boys.