Saturday, March 22, 2014

Cleveland Browns – An eye towards the draft

The Front Office
When Ray Farmer was added to the front office, to join then President Joe Banner and General Manager Michael Lombardi, I thought it was a smart but unusual hire. I tend to keep my eye open for the next up-and-coming elite personnel decision makers in the league, and on that very short list was Ray Farmer. Why he came to Cleveland to be 3rd fiddle, I will never know. So when owner Jimmy Haslam fired Banner & Lombardi, advancing Farmer to GM, I was pretty confident that he would succeed.
In only a few months, Ray Farmer has made truly elite GM decisions. Even though most GMs hire their own head coach (Mike Pettine), Farmer has done a masterful job aligning to Pettine’s philosophy. The specifics of this alignment will be identified later. Farmer then selected Kyle Shannahan to pull the strings on the offensive side of the ball. The former part of “Shannahan & Son” is eager to step out of his father’s shadow, much like Pettine to Rex Ryan. This hunger to prove themselves, is a common theme amongst the entire organization.

Offseason Moves… To Date
Out with (OC) Norv Turner and in with (OC) Kyle Shannahan - Both gentlemen have distinctively identifiable offensive schemes that they are associated to. But luckily there are similarities between the schemes and there are good personnel fits for this transition.
Out with (DC) Ray Horton and in with (HC) Mike Pettine - Horton was an extremely over-hyped hire, which honestly I bought into. Horton had an uber aggressive 3-4 scheme that lacked sophistication and flexibility. Mike Pettine record is a bit of a hybrid scheme, which has a proven track record.
Cutting (Slot WR) Davone Bess and signing (Slot WR) Andrew Hawkins – The previous regime gave up a draft choice and signed Bess to a hefty contract. They expected him to provide consistent hands and leadership to a young receiving corp. Unfortunately, he was legally defined as mentally ill and dropped everything in sight. Hawkins, though undersized, is an extremely explosive catch-and-run slot WR. The fact that the Browns signed the restricted free agent away from the rival Bengals (without swapping compensation) is a plus.
Signing (ILB) Karlos Dansby Letting and letting (ILB) D’Qwell Jackson walk – Jackson was a locker-room leader from the re-birth of the franchise. He was an exceptional Mike Backer in the 4-3, but struggled when he was unprotected in an odd man front. Because Pettine expects to feature more of the 3-4 hybrid, Jackson and his over-paid ass had to go. In comes Dansby, off a MVP-like year at Arizona. His knack for making splash plays should remain a constant, as the Browns down-linemen are better than the Cardinals.
Signing (SS) Donte Whitner and letting (SS) T.J. Ward walk – I was a big fan of Ward and his aggressive imposing style, so seeing him go was a hard pill to swallow. But on the flip side, Ward was okay (not great) at coverage and his style of play was taking its toll on his body. What Ward lacked in coverage, Whitner excels. Whitner is also a savvy vet that picks and chooses when to lay the lumber. He also had a few years playing in Buffalo under Pettine’s defense. Also, Pettine’s necessity to have interchangeable safeties makes Whitner a far superior fit.
Cutting (QBs) Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell – Keeping this one short. They sucked.
Signing (TE) Jim Dray – An under the radar add, he was a stud “in-line” (Y) Tight End last year in Arizona.
Signing (RB) Ben Tate – Everyone under the sun associated the Tate-to-Browns marriage since Trent Richardson was traded last year. It was only re-emphasized when Kyle Shannahan was hired to install his zone-blocking scheme. Sure Tate has been an elite backup RB to Arian Foster, but he offers an injury history that is just as infamous. Farmer and the Browns made out like bandits, signing Tate to the ultimate prove-it contract. An insanely low-risk/high-reward agreement, with little guaranteed money and a per game bonus structure.

Draft Outlook
I keep on referring to the new NFL calendar and how it shakes things up for decision makers. This new format puts an increased premium on exceptional salary cap management to sign scheme-fit quality free agents. With the elongated draft process (and free agency period) is a time-frame that exceptional GMs should be positioning themselves to draft the best player available (BPA). It goes without saying that when a team drafts the BPA, it helps when that selection also fits a position need.
Proper evaluation of draft prospects, far enough up stream has to occur to make smart free agent additions. Over-evaluating  and over-paying free agents, leads to over-drafting positions of need. This ripple effect of poor decisions, are commonplace for many organizations. I am going to sound like a homer, but Farmer’s offseason moves have positioned the Browns rather well. The reason is that value and need align well at each draft pick. Take a look at the logical options who should be around when it is time to turn in their card.
Browns Team Needs:
1.       Cornerback
2.       Offensive Guard
3.       Quarterback
4.       Inside Linebacker
5.       Safety
6.       Offensive Tackle
7.       Wide Receiver
8.       Running Back

·         Round 1 - #4 Overall – Three exceptional options.
o    CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State
§  Buster Skrine and Leon McFadden lack the size and ability to play on the outside opposite Joe Haden. The Browns need an upgrade and Gilbert fills the most pressing team need. He would also add leverage to Haden extension talks.
o   OT | Greg Robinson | Auburn
§  Even though the Browns have Joe Thomas at LT, Robinson offers the best physical tools and attributes to come along at OT in a while. His addition would allow Mitchell Schwartz to shift to OG, answering the 2nd biggest need.
o    WR | Sammy Watkins | Clemson
§  Watkins is a more physical Percy Harvin-like skill set. (Near) elite yes, but another catch-and-run WR doesn’t add diversity to the offense.  If he is the pick, Shannahan will have to work on improved route-trees for Gordon and Hawkins.
·         Round 1 - #26 Overall – Five positions of need with a ton of options.
o   CB | Phillip Gaines | Rice
o   QB | Derek Carr | Fresno State
o   QB | Blake Bortles | Central Florida
o   ILB | C.J. Mosley | Alabama
o   ILB | Ryan Shazier | Ohio State
o   S | Haha Clinton-Dix | Alabama
o   WR | Marquise Lee | USC
o   WR | Jordan Matthews | Vanderbilt
·         Round 2 - #35 Overall – Three positions make the most value/need sense.
o   OG | Brandon Thomas | Clemson
o   OG | Xavier Su’a-Filo | UCLA
o   S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville
o   S | Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois
o   WR | Odell Beckham | LSU
o   WR | Donte Moncrief | Mississippi
Wishful Thinking: Who does Gow want?
·         #4 – OT | Greg Robinson | Auburn
·         #26 – QB | Derek Carr | Fresno State
·         #35 – S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville

3 comments:

  1. Are you convinced the Browns are not taking a QB first round? This pick has serious implications for the Vikes.

    Also, can you be considered a "homer" if you've never actually lived in Cleveland or in Ohio for that matter?

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  2. Good point, I'm not FROM Ohio. I'm less homer and more so confused.

    I doubt that a QB will be selected at #4 overall. Ray Farmer is a Scott Pioli protege and Pioli is typically conservative and likes to build from the inside first. If he is anything like his former boss, he'll seldom takes risks on QBs and play-makers unless he feels that they are high ceiling and high floor guys. The QB prospects this year are not high ceiling guys, with the exception of [wink wink] Derek Carr.

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  3. Rename this post: Cleveland Browns - A Brown Eye for your Shaft.


    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete