The Front Office
In 2011, Spielman took over as General Manager but is often incorrectly associated with the over-drafted bust we call Christian Ponder, with the 12th overall pick that year. The Wilfs (Zygi and Mark) were the ones that made the call to draft Ponder… not Spielman. From that point on, the uber aggressive Rick Spielman took over and reshaped the team.
In 2012, we all remember that Spielman held the Browns at gun-point, looting them of draft picks, all for the price to swap the 3rd and 4th overall picks. With which the Vikings nabbed LT Matt Kalil, and the Browns grabbed Trent Richardson. With the extra bounty of picks accumulated in that trade, Spielman dealt into the back half of the 1st, to grab FS Harrison Smith. What doesn’t get mentioned is that in total Spielman made 6 trades, including the exchange of a 6th round pick to Washington for Donovan McNabb. The ugly side of this GM is his poor FA contracts he dishes out. His first mistake was overpaying John Carlson top 10 TE money, when he already had Kyle Rudolph as a surefire starter.
In 2013, Spielman’s aggressive ways continued. He didn’t want to commit to overpay Percy Harvin’s injury riddled body, and thus traded him to Seattle for a 1st and 7th round picks in the 2013 draft… while netting a 3rd round pick in this year’s (2014) draft. In that draft the Vikings walked away with three 1st round picks, the third coming by an insanely aggressive trade back into the 1st again netting WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Who joined draft-slider DT Sharrif Floyd and CB Xavier Rhodes, to which virtual high-fives were exchanged by those reading this blog. During the FA period that year, he signed Matt Cassel to a reasonable 2-year deal, but WR Greg Jennings’ contract is God-awful. I’ve always been a Jennings fan, but the guy was 29 and the contract was going to pay him an insane base and guarantee money package through the age of 34. Between 2015-17, each year the cap hit would have been $11M (with $2M guaranteed) per year.
So needless to say, Spielman’s maverick ways are on full display.
Offseason Moves… To Date
Out with (OC) Bill Musgrave and in with (OC) Norv Turner – This is a monumental improvement, as Musgrave fell into the predictable play-caller realm, while Turner is (and has always been) a superior offensive mind in the league. He will open up physical space and opportunity for players to flourish.
Out with (HC) Leslie Frazier and in with (HC) Mike Zimmer – Both HCs were defensive-minded leaders, but unlike Frazier, Zimmer is actually seen as defensive guru. Even though both guys prefer the 4-3, schematically Frazier was a 4-3 “bend but don’t break” Tampa-2 zone technician. Zimmer is a more a collapse the pocket, man-on-man defensive mind that likes to force the offense out of their comfort zone.
Letting (TE) John Carlson walk – This was an addition by subtraction. Not a bad player, but he was grossly overpaid, and the team needs to rid themselves of unproductive contracts like his.
Re-signing (QB) Matt Cassel – Sure, in early spring, Cassel opted out of the 2nd year of his contract. But after testing the market a little, he re-signed with the Vikings with a team-friendly deal. The deal is very similar to the one he signed a year ago, where the Vikings have the option to part ways after a single season.
Re-signing (DE) Everson Griffen – Spielman fucked up with Griffen’s monstrous 5-year $42.5M ($19.8M guaranteed) deal. Clearly, Spielman overpaid to keep Griffen from reaching free agency. For a guy that has ONE career start to his name, this contract is not merit based… just projected worth. To give further perspective, three guys that were much much much better options signed for 5/$43M (Michael Johnson), 4/$32M (Michael Bennett), and 5/$35M (Lamarr Houston). Oops.
Letting (CB) Chris Cook walk and signing (CB) Captain Munnerlyn – I’ve stated this before, this was a mistake. Cook under-performed his draft position, I get it. But he was ill-suited for Frazier’s Tampa-2 Zone. In Zimmer’s press-man defensive backfield, the lengthy 6’2” CB could have been special. While Munnerlyn, at 5’8”, is nothing more than a nickel CB. I highly doubt that Zimmer wants to head into the NFC North, where 6’4 WRs grow on trees, and he has to line up a guy that has an 8 inch disadvantage.
Signing (DT) Linval Joseph – Out of all the offseason moves, this will likely be the best. Joseph is easily one of the best 1-Technique DTs in the NFL. At only age 25, his contract is beautifully structured to minimize risk to the Vikings (if he somehow flops, which I doubt). He has amazing strength and hand-work to get defenders away from his body, which allows him to hold the point and gobble up tackles. I can’t stress how valuable he is to a Zimmer defense.
Signing (MLB) Jasper Brinkley, (CB) Derek Cox, (DE) Corey Wootton, and (OG) Vladimir Ducasse – All of these guys were signed to 1-year “prove-it” deals. All necessary cheap adds that any rebuilding team needs, especially ones that are undergoing scheme changes. Derek Cox was a huge disappointment after signing a big contract, but with Zimmer he could step up again. Also, Wootton is a perfect Zimmer 4-Technique DE, the Vikings stole this injury-prone but talented defender from the rival Bears. Brinkley and Ducasse are very unspectacular but sufficient to gain playing time.
Draft Outlook
If I was a betting man, I would guess that GM Rick Spielman will be making a handful of trades (Duh, right). That said I find it absolutely impossible to guess what he will do. But to start somewhere, I will evaluate the current roster (See “Vikings Team Needs” below). I feel that Spielman has done a decent job sewing up the defensive line, which is far-and-away the biggest requirement for Zimmer. One thing that I would encourage Zimmer to do, is press Spielman to re-evaluate Sharrif Floyd. Floyd is way too reliant on his quickness. His short arms, lack of strength, and poor hand-work makes him an extremely unreliable option at the important 3-Technique spot for Zimmer.
Quarterback, Cornerback, and all Linebacker positions are areas that need to be emphasized during the draft process. If the Vikings do draft a QB, I would not advise against drafting one where they currently sit in the first round. This year’s QBs might be satisfactory picks at #8 in most drafts, but not this year. The cost-benefit of passing on one of the guys I list below, and selecting a (QB) Teddy Bridgewater or (QB) Blake Bortles is extremely unwise. The best player available at that spot might not be a position of need, such as offensive tackle or wide receiver, but would be light-years better than a QB.
Vikings Team Needs:
1. Offensive Guard
2. Quarterback
3. Cornerback
4. Outside Linebacker
5. Middle Linebacker
6. Defensive Tackle
7. Safety
8. Running Back
· Round 1 - #8 Overall – Trading down is option #1. Options are not awesome need/fit/values.
o CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State
§ Having back-to-back CBs 1st round CBs is extremely unlikely, and frankly unheard of. But unless the Vikings think that Rhodes (maybe Cox or Josh Robinson) on the outside and Munnerlyn inside, can keep NFC North WRs at bay, this isn’t a bad option.
o CB | Kyle Fuller| Virginia Tech
§ Same as above. But let's re-emphasize how terrible the receiving corps of the Packers, Bears, and Lions are. Errr, by terrible I mean stupid awesome.
o DT | Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh
§ Jerks asked me if a Floyd/Donald pairing would work, my answer was no. But a Joseph/Donald duo is immensely better than Joseph/Floyd.
· Round 2 - #40 Overall – A ton of options, in a very deep field. (More than what’s listed here)
o OG | Xavier Su’a-Filo | UCLA
o OG | Dakota Dozier | Furman
o OG | David Yankey | Stanford
o QB | Zach Mettenberger | LSU
o CB | Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State
o CB |Bradley Roby |Ohio State
o DT |Dominique Easley | Florida
o S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville
o S | Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois
· Round 3 - #72 Overall – It’s odd but, I don’t like the options here… hopefully someone slides.
o OG | Gabe Jackson | Mississippi State
o RB | Carlos Hyde | Ohio State
o RB | Bishop Sankey | Washington State
o RB | Devonta Freeman | Florida State
Wishful Thinking: Who does Gow want?
· #8 – CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State
· #40 – DT | Dominique Easley | Florida
· #72 – OG | Gabe Jackson | Mississippi State
Spielman gets fried by the Vikings fan base if he doesn't select a QB within the first three rounds. My guess is that he will trade back to later in the first since all of the highest impact need positions are likely gone by #8, and still grab a QB in the first or early second. I would be satisfied with Justin Gilbert to fill another need. But the thought of Manziel or Bridgewater playing for the Vikes would actually get me excited for next year.
ReplyDeleteI think this is a Charchian stat -- I found this pretty interesting.
Playoff Appearances from QBs in the last decade
7th round: 0
6th round: 1 (Joe Webb RIP)
5th round: 1 (Matt Cassel)
4th Round: 0
3rd Round: 8 (WIlson, Schaub, Foles, Kaepernick)
2nd Round: 10 (Dalton, T-JACK)
1st Round: 82.
I've got so much to respond to about this, but my first thought is the exact same as Bill's: Winter Park might get burned to the ground at the draft party if the Vikings don't take a QB in the first 2 rounds, let alone 3 like you listed here.
ReplyDeleteBill I don't totally get that stat... is that QB's that have been drafted in the last decade? Because Brady was a 6th round pick.
Yes, I looked twice at that too. That particular stat doesn't include guys like Brady since he was drafted over ten years ago. My question would be why wouldn't you just use the numbers from "active QB's"? Likely because this is more convenient for him to prove his point.
DeleteI'll say that its hard for me to gauge the angst that true Viking fans have. If a QB selection will ease the fanbase, it is a legitimate case. I can't measure that as well as some of you. I'm just trying to look at max value for each draft spot, while estimating who will be there at the pick.
ReplyDeleteI will say that I can see a QB at #8 overall, it's just not the best of values. The same goes for the Browns, as I can see a QB at #4.