In this edition, I take a stab at the hardest position to project into the NFL (Running Backs). As the casual fan now knows, RBs are devalued in today’s NFL game. Over the years, rules have changed to make it difficult for defenders to impose their physical bravado, like they use to do in years prior. This has led to a natural shift in focus to the vertical passing game. The days of the feature back, toting the ball 20 plus times a game, with the aim of control the clock and wear down the defense is no longer the primary offensive philosophy.
Positive or negative, this change is probably good for draft evaluators and their job security. Quarterbacks aside, highly drafted RBs are about as risky of a draft decision as you can make. Many personnel evaluators, nowadays, say that you can find quality RBs in the later rounds. This statement is absolutely correct. Aside from the de-emphasis of the running game, it is near impossible to project a draftee as an NFL RB.
Watching collegiate game tape of a dominant running back can be misleading in so many ways. Is the guy really good, or did he have a dominant offensive line. Or maybe he played in a misdirection running scheme that tried to fool defenders, or possibly lined up against some god awful defenses. So aside from sifting through questionable game tape, they have to project how decisive the RB would be against larger defenders, smaller holes, and almost no time to hesitate. Then there is the absolute necessity, for RBs to be able to pass protect or find a spot on the bench. So knowing and understanding NFL protection schemes, identifying the proper defender, and having the technique and stoutness to do so… are almost alien concepts to college RBs.
With that, let me unveil my rankings…
Running Backs
1. Carlos Hyde [Ohio State] – Powerful one-cut downhill runner, who should excel in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Negatives: His style could lead to injuries, and he is an idiot off the field.
2. Jerick McKinnon [Georgia Southern] – I’m not concerned about the small school tag. Because he is fast, quick, explosive, and he got game. Though his 8 5/8 hands could lead to fumbles.
3. Bishop Sankey [Washington] – 5’9” with choppy steps and is being compared to Gio Benard. Not sure though, Sankey is stronger and a better runner… but lacks Benard’s hands and acceleration.
4. Devonta Freeman [Florida State] – 5’8” is a gift and a curse. He might not hold up in the NFL, but defenders lose track of him, and he sure can get into-and-out-of an opening (quickly).
5. Henry Josey [Missouri] – Josey has durability concerns coming off of one of the worst knee injuries ever seen (No joke). But the kid is a home run hitter and has an amazing work ethic.
Offensive Guards
1. Zach Martin [Notre Dame] – Height and arm length are short of what a prototypical tackle would need. Regardless, this barrel chested gamer is a Pro Bowl OG in a zone blocking scheme.
2. Dakota Dozier [Furman] –Admittedly I’m riding the hype train on this one. Aside from the coolest name, he dominated the E/W Shrine Game while being was crazy agile and smooth in Indy.
3. Xavier Su’a-Filo [UCLA] – Athletic and well-rounded, he dominated with more technique than you would expect from a college lineman. One criticism would be his build could use gym work.
4. Brandon Thomas [Clemson] - Another potential offenseive tackle, with long arms, but on the short side. Guys like this are much better suited inside, as they can be a liability on the outside.
5. David Yankey [Stanford] – I think this guy could be a solid pro. He is tall, solid length, and a typical OL technician out of Stanford. But got overwhelmed against Michigan State at the Rose Bowl.
6. Gabe Jackson [Mississippi State] – A classic road-grader that belongs in a power run game. But without refinement in pass protection he could be a project, which could limit his suitors.
Centers
1. Weston Richburg [Colorado State] – I have no idea. I hear good things. But seriously, he had a solid combine and showed enough athleticism to play in a zone blocking scheme.
2. Marcus Martin [USC] – Abnormally long arms for a center, and a NFL-ready frame, evaluators will likely think they can make a future Pro Bowler out of this former highly recruited lineman.
Defensive Tackles
1. Aaron Donald [Pittsburgh] – Anyone who says there was a more impressive combine performance than this guy is lying. Classic 3-Technique that has all the tools to be a great one.
2. Dominique Easley [Florida] – Pre 2013 ACL tear, he would have given Aaron Donald a running for top 3T DT in this draft. If he falls to the 2nd Rd, he will be an extreme value pick.
3. Louis Nix [Notre Dame] – Because of his lack of agility and ability to collapse the pocket, Nix is likely isolated to a zero technique nose tackle in a 3-4. Classic fat guy that you can’t move.
4. Timmy Jernigan [Florida State] – Holy Draft Day slide Batman! A la Sharriff Floyd. Short armed 1T DTs that get by in college with strength, and lack explosiveness shouldn’t be 1st Rounders.
5. Caraun Reid [Princeton] – Any Ivy Leaguer is definitely a sleeper in any draft process. That said, small school draftees need to capitalize on the Combine and Senior Bowl like this guy.
Cornerbacks
1. Justin Gilbert [Oklahoma State] – As far as CBs go, he is the prettiest girl at the dance. Prototypical size, exceptional length, speed, ability to high-point the ball, smooth hip turnover. He good.
2. Phillip Gaines [Rice] – Sure he played against subpar competition, but was a true shutdown corner. Will it transfer to the NFL? Maybe. His good combine supports his good game tape.
3. Kyle Fuller [Virginia Tech] – Damn good cover corner, with prototypical size, speed, and length. Measurables are definitely there, tackles well, but knock would be his lack of splash plays.
4. Darquenze Dennard [Michigan State] – I though the NFL network made too many excuses for Dennard’s poor combine performance. Press corner or not, he lacks speed and fluidity.
5. Marcus Roberson [Florida] – Big upside natural man cover corner, extremely instinctive, and can take the other teams #1 on. Downside = Slow 40, injury prone and an off the field liability.
Good call on Justin Gilbert. Being an Oklahoma State season ticket holder, I can attest to his awesomeness. You forgot to mention he also returns kicks...many times for touchdowns.
ReplyDeleteI have been trying to keep my characters down when trying to describe each guy, otherwise I would have mentioned his elite KR ability. I heard someone compare him to (ARI, CB) Patrick Peterson, which I buy in all the good and bad ways.
DeleteAaron Donald as a 3-tech plays the same position as Floyd, right? So they wouldn't really be able to play them side-by-side...? If MN misses out on Teddy, Clowney, and Mack (and can't trade back), Donald is someone I've been looking at. Just not sure if they would pull that trigger after nabbing Floyd last year. Unless they decided to switch to a 3-4, which i don't see happening.
ReplyDeleteThe other guy I'm looking at, under the scenario above, is Gilbert, so I'm a fan of this post. Donald and Gilbert are my next level down picks, at the moment.
Yes, Donald is a 3T like Floyd. But playing two 3T side-by-side is a recipe for disaster.
DeleteIn a 4 man front, The 1T is the guy that is meant to purposely eat up a double team, between the C and the OG. His job is less to rush the QB, and more to hold the POA, or (better yet) collapse the pocket. The 3T is the complement to the 1T. He needs to be strong and stout enough to hold up at the POA, while more importantly being able to beat an OG 1-on1. These guys are typically labeled as "gap-shooters", exemplifying agility and quickness in tight spaces, and usually posess voilent hands to keep a lineman's hands off his own body. If you line two 3T next to each other, you would be susptible to gaping running holes up the middle. Not only will lanes open up a the defensive line, but there is a good chance an interior offensive lineman will make their way to the 2nd level obliterating the Mike LB.
With Floyd, there is a reason why he had a terrible draft day slide. I, like many, over-looked his arm length, and projected that his size and quickness could result in consistent plus encounters, on each snap. Unless his strength improves, and his hands and footwork are consistently on-point, I see him as more of a situational pass rusher. Now if you were to compare Donald to Floyd: Donald is stronger by a mile, way more explosive, has had far more superior collegiate success, and importanty his arm length is not a liability. Sadly all Floyd has is 2 more inches of height and a few pounds heavier, he is not in Donald's realm.
As for draft prospects, it would be shocking to see Speilman admit he made a mistake with Floyd (only one year in)... Because that would be the only reason why he would draft a 3T two years in a row.
On the topic of a 3-4, Zimmer is and always has been a staunch proponent of the 4-3. I won't say never, on a scheme change, but I think it is highly doubtful. Besides, neither Floyd or Donald would make a good 5T DE in a 3-4. They both would lack the requisite height and length.
also, surprised you didn't list Tre Mason in your top-5 RB's... not a fan, Gow?
ReplyDeleteMason was not asked to pass protect in college, and did not display good hands catching the ball. Two reasons why he isn't a Top 5 guy for me. Now that doesn't mean he can't work on his craft and become become better at both aspects. Cause some team will likely take a chance on him between the 2nd and 3rd round, because he is extremely explosive and has youth on his side.
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