Sunday, March 16, 2014

Sobering up from (some of my) drunk opinions

For the upcoming draft, here is my Big Board. This analysis is a high-level perspective based on the following: [1] Each players physical ability; [2] How transferable their skills; and [3] Most importantly... how NFL personnel decision makers (usually) would view prospects that have similar attributes and characteristics.

Also as best I can (I repeat, as best I can), I have pulled out areas where my opinions vary greatly from other Big Boards you have seen. This does not mean I am caving in on all of my opinions. The purpose of this post was to put a "close to a real-life" Big Board out there. Obviously, each team will have a very different board, as scheme and need-fit will always play a factor. The comments below on position or scheme are for "best fits". This can be due to their individual strengths or limitations, but either way for value to be maximized, this is the type of role I think they would have to play in. In future posts, I'll dive into what I believe the Vikings and Browns Big Board will be in a later post.

Of note: The top 25 on here are my 1st Round values, #26 to #34 are my fringe 1st Rounders, rest are 2nd Round values.

Opinions and questions are more than welcome. Enjoy.
  1. Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina | 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB
  2. Greg Robinson | Auburn | LT or RT, Man or Zone Blocking Scheme (ZBS)
  3. Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh | 4-3 3-Technique DT
  4. Sammy Watkins | Clemson | Flanker (FL) or Slot WR
  5. Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State | Man or Press CB
  6. Jake Matthews | Texas A&M | LT, Man or ZBS
  7. Kahlil Mack | Buffalo | 3-4 OLB, 3-4 ILB
  8. Mike Evans | Texas A&M | Split End (SE) WR, Vertical Offense
  9. Taylor Lewan | Michigan | LT or RT, Man or ZBS
  10. Brandin Cooks | Oregion State | FL or Slot WR, West Coast Offense (WCO)
  11. Dee Ford | Auburn | 3-4 OLB, 4-3 7or9-Technique, Attacking D
  12. Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville | Spread Offense
  13. Zach Martin | Notre Dame | OG or OT, Man or ZBS
  14. Marquis Lee | USC | Possession FL WR
  15. Jordan Matthews | Vanderbilt | SE or FL WR
  16. Calvin Pryor | Louisville | SS or FS, Physical D
  17. Eric Ebron | North Carolina | Move TE, Pass-first Offense
  18. Blake Bortles | Central Florida | Conservative Play-Action Offense
  19. HaHa Clinton-Dix | Alabama | FS, Cover 2 Defense
  20. Ra'Shede Hageman | Minnesota | 3-4 DE, 4-3 Under 5-Technique DE
  21. Ryan Shazier | Ohio State | 4-3 OLB, 3-4 ILB
  22. Odell Beckham | LSU | FL WR, Vertical Offense
  23. Kyle Fuller | Virginia Tech | Man or Press CB
  24. CJ Mosley | Alabama | 3-4 ILB, 4-3 Mike LB
  25. Xavier Su'a-Filo | UCLA | OG Man or ZBS
  26. Derek Carr | Fresno State | WCO
  27. Brandon Thomas | Clemson | OG or OT, Man Blocking
  28. Scott Crichton | Oregon State | 4-3 DE
  29. Kevin Norwood | Alabama | FL WR
  30. Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | QB, Spread Read-Option Offense
  31. Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State | Press CB
  32. Anthony Barr | UCLA | 3-4 OLB, 4-3 OLB, Attacking D
  33. Phillip Gaines | Rice | Man or Press CB
  34. Morgan Moses | Virginia | LT or RT, Man Blocking
  35. Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois | FS or SS
  36. Kelvin Benjamin | Florida State | SE WR, Run-first Offense
  37. Kony Ealy | Missouri | 4-3 DE 
  38. Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Washington | In-line TE, Run-first or WCO
  39. Dominique Easley | Florida | 4-3 3-Technique DT
  40. Allen Robinson | Penn State | Possession WR, WCO
  41. Dakota Dozier | Furman | OG, Man or ZBS
  42. Troy Niklas | Notre Dame | In-line TE, Run-first or WCO
  43. David Yankey | Stanford | OG, Man Blocking, Run-first Offense
  44. Carl Bradford | Arizona State | 3-4 OLB or 3-4 ILB
  45. Louis Nix | Notre Dame | 3-4 NT or 4-3 1-Technique DT
  46. Marcus Roberson | Florida | Man or Press CB
  47. Jordan Tripp | Montana | 3-4 OLB, 3-4 ILB, 4-3 OLB
  48. Bradley Roby | Ohio State | Man or Zone CB
  49. Marcus Martin | USC | C, Man or ZBS
  50. Jared Abbrederis | Wisconsin | FL WR
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4 comments:

  1. Rod JerksMarch 17, 2014 at 10:15 AM

    SHOOOOO! Look at you! All growns up! Is this the first time you've ever built your own big board?

    I'll need to spend some time digging into this and where you're taking big stands on guys. The first thing that pops for me is your Manziel rank, since I thought you were a fan of his...

    Also, look at all those WR's in the top-25... I'm hoping the abundance of talent at that position causes some to fall to later rounds, as I'd love another high-potential WR for the Vikings, but they certainly have bigger needs to address earlier in the draft.

    Gow, who are you hoping the Browns take at #4?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownMarch 17, 2014 at 8:10 PM

      Yup, you guessed it Rod. This is my first Big Board, I've never went beyond maybe 12 picks. More so because the Browns are ALWAYS drafting at the top of a draft class, [insert throat clearing sound] like this year. But honestly I think Big Boards (like this), that try to aggregate and blend all teams and schemes into one list... is a little impractical. That doesn't mean that these aren't fun to look at, and offer a little bit of value if you want an unbiased point-of-view. When you factor in an offensive/defensive scheme, or (as Dallas pointed out) return ability... the lens that you view these guys dramatically alters.

      Yes, a few months ago Manziel was a Top QB for me. Since then, positive and negative reports have come out. And I feel I have filtered through the smokescreen and believe I see a clearer picture of Manziel.

      His improvisation style seems to be a product of exceptional elusiveness and a lot of luck. In projecting him into an NFL offense, I am not sure pro defenders will make collegiate mistakes. His inability to make the right read, when guys were definitely open, was masked by pulling the ball down and running. It’s my opinion he needs a simple offense, with simple reads. He cannot be limited by a scheme that wants him to play within a rigid pro-structure. But let me be very clear, every college QB has their flaws. Manziel's flaws are no different or more severe than most QBs. He still offers a plus arm, which can both drive the ball down-field and drill an 18 yd out-route. Tack on that his running ability is probably better than every QB in the NFL, yes every QB, … so he’s going to draw deserved attention. But because only a few teams in the league can actually use his skill set, he also does not deserve to be high on this Big Board.

      As for your other comments, you will have to wait on those comments.

      Delete
  2. NedMarch 17, 2014 at 2:18 PM

    Wow. I only know the popular names, so a lot of these guys are news to me. I don't really have an opinion on most of them or on the big board/draft rankings unless we do a head to head comparison of players. However, I just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to do this.

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    Replies
    1. UnknownMarch 17, 2014 at 8:21 PM

      No problem Ned. Obviously, I enjoy this stuff.

      Maybe you can give me some insight on which Gopher's I should be taking a look at for next year.

      Delete

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