Rumor Mill - Chances of ______ happening

Rumor: Falcons trading up with the Texans to nab Jadeveon Clowney

Cost to trade up: Just to meet the trade value, Atlanta would have to give up the following. But merely meeting trade value is a travesty for a once-a-generation sack artist. Overall, this is a lot to give up... but again, I think they should ask for more.

• 1st RD pick #6
• 2nd RD pick #37
• 4th RD pick #103
• 2015 1st RD pick

Why this DOES makes sense: GM Thomas Dimitroff is renown for his aggressive draft day trades. Houston has made it well known that they want to trade out of the 1st pick. With new Assistant GM Scott Pioli joining the front office brass, the Falcons should be able to do more with lower round picks, making Dimitroff feel even safer with this decision.

Why this DOES NOT makes sense: New DC Romeo Crennel is inheriting a defense that produced the 3rd worst sack totals last year. Within the Texan front 7, Clowney would be utilized as a predator OLB, who attacks the QB on almost every down. Paired with JJ Watt, Clowney would be a near lock for double-digit sacks every year. Atlanta also has a lot of leverage, as they are a near lock for major needs in Khalil Mack, Greg Robinson, or Jake Matthews. So there is not a major need to trade up.

Chances of happening: 70% - It's taken me some time to come to this conclusion, but I think the Texans really want to trade down. So bad, that they probably will trade down for less than what one should net for someone of Clowney's talent level.

What would Houston hope for at #6?: A potential trade down to the Falcons 6th pick will telegraph a QB selection for new offensive minded HC Bill O'Brien to build his offense around. That said, I would guess it is a toss up between Blake Bortles and Derek Carr. In turn, this will make Oakland's #5 pick an easy target for a team looking to trade up to grab likely targets Mack, Bortles, or Carr.


Rumor: The Cowboys drafting Johnny Manziel

Why this DOES NOT make sense: Last year, the Cowboys signed Romo to a 6 yr / $108M with $40M in guarantees. Financially tied to Romo makes it very hard for the annually cap strapped Cowboys from moving on from Romo before 2018. Cutting Romo earlier than that would cause additional financial burden for a team that can't seem to manage it's checkbook.

Why this DOES make sense: Tony Romo is 34 years old, and over the years he has taken a beating behind a poor offensive line. Because of this, Romo gets nicked up... and of late has had to have a few back surgeries. Troy Aikman, who had his own back injuries, knows the rigors of the position and is concerned about Romo's future outlook. Tack on the fact that Jerry Jones likes to take chances on greatness, and Manziel being a Texas product, this might just happen.

Chances of happening: 20% - Considering all the financials this is a very high percentage. Jerry Jones has never been one to take to a conservative cap management outlook, and I don't think that starts this year. So if Manziel is available at 16, I think he is a possibility. The question is, will he be there? Will someone more logical fall to 16?


Rumor: Teddy Bridgewater falling out of the 1st round

Why this DOES NOT make sense: There is a clear corollary between teams with steady QB play and winning organizations. When it comes to drafting QBs, they should never be held to a typical Big Board, as the need will always outweigh comparative value. Schematic fits will also cause teams to over-draft QBs... as does the urgency for a GM or head coach to keep their job.

Specific to this draft, there are about 7 teams that Bridgewater could be selected in the 1st round.

Why this DOES make sense: Bridgewater's Pro Day, a.k.a. "Glove-Gate", has given doubters fertile ground to stand on. Concerns over Teddy's slight frame, non-vocal leadership ways, his own admitted discomfort with cold weather, and lack of an "it" factor... are enough to cast plenty more doubt. Also, evaluators are vocal about the lack of elite high-end quality in this crop. The possibility of the most likely teams, at the very top of the draft, passing on QBs for round 1 only increases the likelihood of top QBs falling to the 2nd.

Chances of happening: 20% - No need to explain

Big Board 3.0 - Mettenberger is only QB to avoid Big Board slippage

In an effort to get closer to the pin, here we go.

Previous rank in [##]. Significant Risers in RED. Significant Falls in BLUE.

1. [1] DE/OLB | Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina
2. [2] OT | Greg Robinson | Auburn
3. [4] OT | Jake Matthews | Texas A&M
4. [5] WR | Sammy Watkins | Clemson
5. [3] 3T | Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh
6. [6] WR | Mike Evans | Texas A&M
7. [8] OLB | Khalil Mack | Buffalo
8. [7] CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State
9. [12] WR | Odell Beckham | LSU
10. [10] OT | Morgan Moses | Virginia
11. [9] WR | Brandin Cooks | Oregon State
12. [19] OG/OT | Zach Martin | Notre Dame
13. [21] CB | Kyle Fuller | Virginia Tech
14. [13] FS | HaHa Clinton-Dix | Alabama
15. [16] 5T/DT | Ra'Shede Hageman | Minnesota
16. [11] TE | Eric Ebron | North Carolina
17. [24] ILB | C.J. Mosely | Alabama
18. [25] TE | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Washington
19. [17] OLB | Ryan Shazier | Ohio State
20. [29] OG | Xavier Su'a-Filo | UCLA
21. [30] WR | Donte Moncrief | Ole Miss
22. [14] QB | Derek Carr | Fresno State
23. [40] OLB/9T | Jeremiah Attaochu | Georgia Tech
24. [23] DE | Kareem Martin | North Carolina
25. [18] OT | Taylor Lewan | Michigan
26. [22] QB | Blake Bortles | UCF
27. [36] SS/FS | Calvin Pryor | Louisville
28. [28] 3T | Dominique Easley | Florida
29. [35] OLB/9T | Anthony Barr | UCLA
30. [20] OLB/9T | Dee Ford | Auburn
31. [15] WR | Marquise Lee | USC
32. [45] CB | Bradley Roby | Ohio State
33. [32] QB | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M
34. [27] CB | Phillip Gaines | Rice
35. [NR] OT/OG | Joel Bitonio | Nevada
36. [37] DE | Scott Crichton | Oregon State
37. [33] OG | Dakota Dozier | Furman
38. [31] WR | Jordan Mathews | Vanderbilt
39. [42] QB | Zach Mettenberger | LSU
40. [26] QB | Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville
41. [NR] C | Weston Richburg | Colorado State
42. [34] WR | Kelvin Benjamin | Florida State
43. [46] CB | Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State
44. [50] WR | Davante Adams | Fresno State
45. [48] 1T | Timmy Jernigan | Florida State
46. [43] NT | Louis Nix | Notre Dame
47. [38] DE | Kony Ealy | Missouri
48. [NR] RB | Carlos Hyde | Ohio State
49. [44] OG | David Yankey | Stanford
50. [NR] CB | Pierre Desir | Lindenwood

Top 5 "Significant" Risers:

• Jeremiah Attaochu is the latest Georgia Tech product to flash amazing athletic ability. His best position is definitely as a 34 rush LB. Though he could be an option as a 9T ("Wide 9 DE") in a 4 man front. Either way, his year one contribution will be on obvious passing downs.
• Through this draft evaulation process, it seems as if Joel Bitonio is more of what people thought Taylor Lewan was. The former Wolfpack LT had dominated lesser competition all of last year, as well as at the Senior Bowl. Specifically, his footwork and mean streak is being praised by many.
• Even though he had a recent citation for operating a vehicle while under the influence, I don't think that it will hinder his rise up the draft board. Over the last few weeks, Bradley Roby's differientiated atheticism and 2012 game tape has outweighed a poor 2013 campaign. Stock up.
• This opinion might be influenced by the Browns signing of Alex Mack, but I believe there is an increased importance on smart pivot men that have a nasty streak. With so many teams having a giant hole at the position, Weston Richburg could easily justify a 1st round selection.
• I know I have a problem, when I start to drool thinking about what I see and hear about Pierre Desir. You can put a sign on me saying bandwagon fan, but this very small school prospect has all the measurables, movement skills, and athletic ability to make any scout giddy.

Top 3 "Significant" Fallers:

• Sadly I think that Marquise Lee's left knee injury has zapped some of his mojo. Pair that up with a high 2013 drop rate, he could slip down a little bit in the draft. That said, Lee is still s great route runner, who can get himself open. And maybe, just maybe his knee recovers fully... we'll see.
• During the National Championship game, Dee Ford flashed amazing explosion and ability to run the arch to the QB. Immediately, I knew he was an 34 rush OLB... but a pretty damn good one at it. But his lean frame, inability to shed blocks, and lack of counter moves screams PROJECT.
• My "I hate Teddy" parade rolls on. Now days, I think the only thing holding up Teddy Bridgewater is the media. Most NFL GMs and scouts have bailed from any comments that they might have made praising Bridgewater. Teddy needs a conservative offense (badly) to succeed.

What Are We Doing For The Draft?

This post is only about answering one single question, which is it's title.

This is not about the Vikings or Browns. It's not about Gow's Big Board (although I appreciate all your work, Gowser). It's not about stupid Blake Bortles perceived strong arm (it's not). It's not about proposed rule changes to the FF league, or even if we should be discussing them at said get-together.

All I want to know is: What are we doing for the Draft?

The implication is already built into the question. There is no "are we doing something..."

We are. I've already squared it away at home, and you should too, if you haven't already. You still have  2 weeks.

We just need to determine the details, specifically where to meet/watch said draft. My only ask is that the place has the audio of the draft going through their speakers.

I look forward to your contributions.

Mock Draft 1.0 - Slow reveal of picks, little by little, and multiple times a day. Check back and Comment Frequently.

My comments will get lengthy, so let's just get into it.

#1 - Houston Texans : Jadeveon Clowney [DE/OLB, South Carolina]

I understand and respect the case for (QB) Blake Bortles here, but passing on a once-a-generation talent will haunt the franchise for years... more so than any of the flawed QBs who might develop into something decent. New HC Bill O'Brien can get his QB at the top of the 2nd Round or trade back into the 1st for a slipping QB prospect. Also, the Texans had a 32 sacks last year, 3rd worst in the NFL. Clowney will have an immediate impact, improving this critical statistical category.

#2 - *** TRADE *** Minnesota Vikings (from St. Louis) : Blake Bortles [QB, UCF]

Take the NFL's most aggressive GM and pair him with the NFL's trade-down king (whose name is not Bill Belichick) and this is what you get. This move is prompted by the lack of faith that Bortles or Carr will fall to them at #8, with QB needy teams like JAC, CLE, OAK, and possibly TB in between. GM Les Sneed doesn't need to, but maximizes value and return by trading down a few spots. Increasing the chances that he addresses 3 out of the 4 biggest needs he has (CB, WR, OT, S) with some marquee players.
  
Minnesota trades:
> 1st Round (#8)
> 2nd Round (#40)
> 6th Round (#184)
> 2015 2nd Round Pick

St. Louis trades:
> 1st Round (#2)
> 7th Round (#241)

#3 - Jacksonville Jaguars : Justin Gilbert [CB, Oklahoma State]

I believe that Clowney and Bortles were 1st and 2nd choice. Realistically and schematically, I think that all QBs are still in play. But I have a gut feeling that they will leverage the 11 draft choices they have to get back into the 1st round for a QB. So in looking at the fact that the Jags gave up the 5th most points, 7th most passing yards, and their starting CBs names are Alan Ball and Dwayne Gratz... I see (HC) Gus Bradley looking to replicate his Seattle defense with the addition of a size/length/speed option like Gilbert. So no, I'm not buying into the negative rumors around Gilbert.

#4 - Cleveland Browns : Derek Carr [QB, Fresno State]

With the extended review period this year, there is little chance Carr is there at #26. The rumors of the Derek Carr infatuation are not unfounded. It's my belief that former heads of state (Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi) were disgruntled and had leaked information to the media. Nonetheless, Carr offers the arm talent to cut through the cold lakeshore winds, the leadership to be a steady entity on a historically losing squad, and the moxie required for a blue collar city. Surrounded by young offensive weapons and a good o-line, there are few organizations where a rookie QB can step in so easily.

#5 - *** TRADE *** St. Louis Rams (from Oakland) : Sammy Watkins [WR, Clemson]

In this scenario, the Rams are the richest bitches on the block. Why not trade up and grab the guy that they wanted at #2? The cost to do so will be cheap (due to draft pick wealth), but would be costly for other teams in lesser situations. In Sammy Watkins, they would have a #1 WR to rid themselves of Sam Bradford excuses. Otherwise, they can trot out Kenny Britt and Brian Quick on the perimeter and Tavon Austin in the slot. #DidNotThinkSo. Argument could be made to take Mike Evans, if Tampa takes Watkins at 7, but Evans is in the same build/mold as Britt and Quick. Watkins is unique and adds an element to the offense that they lack.

St. Louis trades:
> 1st Round (#8) - pick from MIN
> 3rd Round (#75)
> 4th Round (#153)
> 6th Round (#184) - pick from MIN

Oakland trades:
> 1st Round (#5)

#6 - Atlanta Falcons : Jake Matthews [LT, Texas A&M]

Needless to say Atlanta is sitting pretty with options here. OLB Kahlil Mack, OT Greg Robinson, or OT Jake Matthews. Personally, I give the edge to Matthews, as the Falcons have a pass-centric offense, and he is a more natural pass protector than Robinson. Why left tackle? Well when you pay your QB $103M, made a blockbuster trade to grab Julio Jones, talked a hall of famer TE out of retirement, naturally you want to protect your QB's blind side with someone better than Sam Baker. In round 2 the Falcons can address the pass rush, and grab one of the fast rising rush OLBs that are buzzing right now

#7 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Greg Robinson [LT, Auburn]

To most folks this will come as a surprise. Personally, I haven't seen a mock draft that dares to let a guy they compare to Orlando Pace to slide this far. So no doubt this would be a steal. In a conference where the Bucs face Rob Ryan's aggressive pass rush, Atlanta's change-over to an attacking 3-4, and the Panthers insanely stout defense... they better find a way to protect the QB. More importantly, with new OC Jeff Tedford's ball-control offense, running the ball behind this behemoth is an immediate upgrade. Everyone's mocks has the Bucs picking a WR, but they can do so later... especially in this draft.

#8 - Oakland Raiders (from Minnesota through St. Louis) : Mike Evans [WR, Texas A&M]

Holy crap this roster is terrible! No doubt the Raiders should go with the "Best Player Available", and sadly that pick will arguably be the best player on the entire team. If the picks fall wimilar to what I have here, it could come down to Aaron Donald and Mike Evans. Looking at OC Greg Olsen's tendencies and the liklihood of the Raiders playing from behind, 3 WR sets will be the norm. In Evans, is a difference-maker that can be both a field-stretcher and a redzone target. His impressive catch radius and high-point ability will be put to good use, as Matt Schaub's inaccuracy will not be helped by a porous line. All the Raiders can hope to do is suck less.

#9 - Buffalo Bills : Morgan Moses [OT, Virginia]

When Buffalo traded a 6th round pick for the former Bucs WR Mike Williams, they addressed the position. Regardless of Williams laziness, which probably won't change, the Bills will likely go in another direction in the first stanza. HC Doug Marrone wants to run run run, which makes Morgan Moses an intriguing option. Opposite Cordy Glenn, the Bills o-line will be bookended by dual OTs that are both 6'6"/+340. With those two giants on each side, CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and your grandma could find running lanes open up.

#10 - *** TRADE *** Philadelphia Eagles (from Detroit) : Kahlil Mack [OLB, Buffalo]

This trade is more manufactured creativity than anything. When I look at Detroit, I disagree with most that HaHa Clinton-Dix is in play at this pick. New DC Teryl Austin is a big believer in clear FS/SS designations, and seems very happy with newly aquired Glover Quin roaming the deep middle like Ed Reed did for him in Baltimore. CB and DE are areas that make the most sense for me. Instead of picking CB Kyle Fuller here, I think they trade down to an uber aggressive Philadelphia franchise.

On the Philadelphia side of the phone, will be a salivating Chip Kelly, if Mack ships past Atlanta at 6. I imagine they will seek trading partners before Tennessee, as Mack would be a no-brainer for the Titans. Already this offseason, the Eagles have been rumored to trade for former Oregon Duck OLB Dion Jordan from Miami. Trent Cole, Brandon Graham, and Vinny Curry are all pure 43 DEs and struggled mightily to make the transition to 34 OLB.

Phildelphia trades:
> 1st Round (#22)
> 3th Round (#86)
> 2015 2nd Round Pick
> DE Brandon Graham or Vinny Curry

Detroit trades:
> 1st Round (#10)
> 6th Round (#189)
> 7th Round (#227)

#11 - Tennessee Titans : Ra'Shede Hageman [5T, Minnesota]

Tennessee is a difficult team to figure out. The overall roster is actually pretty decent. New HC Ken Whisenhunt has run some pretty diverse offenses in his time. New DC Ray Horton is installing a new attacking 3-4 defense. But because there are pieces in place to make all of the transitions less bumpy, so it's hard to pinpoint immediate need. I slated the Golden Gopher here, due to only having one true 5-technique DE on the roster. Desmond Bryant (in CLE) and Calais Campbell (in ARI) were Ray Horton's attacking 5Ts. In this year's draft, Hageman is the only elite option that can fit this role.

#12 - New York Giants : Aaron Donald [DT, Pittsburgh]

Remember when the Giants had a feared defensive line? Yeah, that isn't the case anymore. After losing Linval Joseph in Free Agency, things will not get better. Of all the needs, an there are many, I think the defensive line needs to be addressed first. In typical years, the Giants would be addressing this by selecting a pass rushing DE. This year, I think their best option is to generate a push from the interior. In turn, this will help Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka get more one-on-one situations on the outside. Aaron Donald will do just that, and potentially reach Geno Adkins level of play.

#13 - St. Louis Rams : Hasean "HaHa" Clinton-Dix [FS, Alabama]

The NFL's shift towards pass friendly rules has brought forth pass-centric offenses. As a byproduct, there is premium on safeties that can read offenses, tackle in the open field, and cover (both man and zone). Hasean is the most proven of this year's crop, and the Rams are desperate for a FS upgrade, so the match is logical. If a team wants Hasean more, they will have to jump the Rams at 13, but I have my doubts. It's not to his detriment, but safeties that lack of elite speed and athleticism are tough to give up draft picks to acquire.

#14 - *** TRADE *** Cleveland Browns (from Chicago) : Odell Beckham [WR, LSU]

This would be a bold gesture by the new GM Ray Farmer, and would only make sense if a QB is had at #4. In a year that has the deepest crop of WRs ever, draft analysts everywhere will have a heyday ripping on the Browns. Why this trade makes sense, has to do with with offensive diversity. Teams that can attack every level with multiple players and formations are scary to defend. In Beckham, I see the ability to do what others in the draft can't do. There are guys that can take the top off the defense with fades, corners and 9 routes. Or guys that can take a slip screen the distance... but not usually both. Pair that up with Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and Andrew Hawkins... good God.

Why this makes sense for the Bears is simple, they missed out on Donald and Clinton-Dix who are easily the biggest targets. It also doesn't hurt that trading down 12 spots will net them 2-3rd round picks. The extra picks will help them sew up the 30th ranked run defense, in a conference where AP and Lacy are coming down the middle.

Cleveland trades:
> 1st Round (#26)
> 3rd Round (#71)
> 3rd Round (#83)
> 7th Round (#218)

Chicago trades:
> 1st Round (#14)
> 7th Round (#191)

#15 - Pittsburgh Steelers : Kyle Fuller [CB, Virginia Tech]

Pittsburgh is getting older and older, and they only have themselves to blame for it. GM Kevin Colbert and ownership is way too loyal to their aging players. The franchise seems too frightened to make a tough decision, which has led to an annual poor cap situation. This last year, when they should have cut the aged and deteriorated CB Ike Taylor, they renegotiated. This year, CB Cortez Allen is in a contract year, and could be gone. Long story short, the Steelers need a CB early and high. In Fuller, you have an atheletic  guy with size and technical cover skills. He won't take chances, but that will come with time.

#16 - *** TRADE *** San Francisco 49ers (from Dallas) : Austin Seferian-Jenkins [TE, Washington State]

ASJ over Eric Ebron? WHAT! Well word on the street is that the Niners want to run more 12 formation sets, for this to happen they will need a "Y" (in-line) TE. In most years, not this year, there is a lack of quality Y-TEs. But the reason why I think they should trade up for ASJ, is to give Kaepernick a passing weapon, which Y-TEs are not always known for. With ASJ, you have an amazing wing-span, agility, high-point ability, and in-line blocking. If they don't trade up, I think other teams like BAL, NYJ, MIA, GB, KC, CAR will target ASJ, as everyone wants to mimic the 2-TE Patriot offense. It's much harder to find a Gronk-like Y-TE than it is to find a F-TE like Aaron Hernandez was.

San Francisco trades:
> 1st Round (#30)
> 2nd Round (#56)
> 3rd Round (#77)
> 7th Round (#242)

Dallas trades:
> 1st Round (#16)
> 5th Round (#158)

#17 - Baltimore Ravens : Zach Martin [OT/OG, Notre Dame]

If GM Ozzie Newsome was a baseball player, he would bat 2nd in the lineup and lead the league in batting average and hitting doubles. What I'm saying is, the best GM in the NFL doesn't try to hit home runs with boom-or-bust prospects. He's perfectly happy filling his meal ticket with solid, safe, unspectacular, best player available logic. Insert Zach Martin, a solid technician who can probably play every position on the line. This also will help a team that had the most sacks and ranked 30th in rushing a year ago. No matter where he plays, OC Gary Kubiak zone-blocking scheme has one building block.

#18 - New York Jets : Brandin Cooks [WR, Oregon State]

No doubt, this is the last make-or-break year for Rex Ryan (me thinks). GM John Idzik has done a good job being aggressive in Free Agency, which will allow Ryan every chance to succeed. So when it comes to the draft, I expect them to try to trade up and find guys that can contribute immediately. For so many years, Ryan and Jets have watched Wes Welker light them up from the slot. In Cooks the undersized WR can cause mismatches and get open on his own, the same as Welker. Someone like this will be critical for the Jets, as they need someone to take the focus off of WR Eric Decker.

#19 - Miami Dolphins : Marquise Lee [WR, USC]

If the Dolphins were to draft off of need, it would be OT Taylor Lewan or OG Xavier Su'a-Filo here. But I think that ownership will want a pick to both excite the fan base and provide a weapon for their young QB. On their board, would potentially be WR Marquise Lee or TE Eric Ebron. Personally I think that pairing Charles Clay at H-Back with Ebron at the "F" (Move) TE will cause major protection issues for a team that already struggles to keep their QB upright. Lee makes the most sense, and he'll offer some silky route running that Tannehill will love. Also, 2 Miami WRs are coming off major injuries.

#20 - Arizona Cardinals : Jeremiah Attaochu [OLB, Georgia Tech]

Arizona's pass rush is already very good, and frankly the team identity, but OLB John Abraham is 35 and needs to be replaced soon. Of late, Attaochu has been rising and everything seems legit. So much so, that in five years' time we might look back and be shocked how low Attaochu will be drafted. His ability is on the raw side, but not has a remarkable toolset to work with. His length, strength, and athleticism are evident... and I hear good things about his first step and bend. Time will tell, but he is well worth the risk.

#21 - Green Bay Packers : Eric Ebron [TE, North Carolina]

Ebron this far down might surprise some, but if the NYJ, NYG, and TEN go another direction this could happen. An unlikely but intriguing possibility would also be for the Patriots to trade up for Ebron's services. But in Green Bay Ebron will be the perfect fill-in as a field stretching F-TE to replace JerMichael Finley. This also makes sense, as in GB he won't be asked to block much, so he won't be the liability that he normally would be in a more traditional offense. What's funny is he is just as susceptible to drops as Finley was, which will give Discount Double Check headaches.

#22 - Detroit Lions (from Philadelphia) : Phillip Gaines [CB, Rice]

As said before, Detroit wants to install an aggressive and intimidating defense. For this to happen, the annually poor cornerback situation needs to be addressed. Teams cannot allow linement to pin their ears back and rush the passer without steady CB play. Gaines is an under-the-radar cover corner that I am higher on, than most. His ability to mirror WRs of any size and ability was put on display when he shut down Mike Evans last year. That said, I'll admit that I could be wrong about him. But one thing is for sure, with the litany of teams that have CB need... and the prevmium that is placed on the position... the Lions have to come away from round 1 with a CB.

#23 - *** TRADE *** Jacksonville Jaguars (from Kansas City) : Teddy Bridgewater [QB, Louisville]

In my scenario, both the Texans and the Jags walk away from their Top 3 spots without a QB. Every year, top of the 2nd round targets get pushed into the bottom or the 1st. It happens every year, where those teams trade up to get their guy... regardless if you are sitting at the 1st pick in the 2nd round or not (it doesn't matter). To me Kansas City seems like the most likely dance partner (here). And because the Jags have more depth and value of picks, they should outbid Houston for this pick.

In a (OC) Jedd Fisch offense, I think Bridgewater could do quite well. Fisch likes to run an up-tempo offense that seeks to stretch defenses both vertically and horizontally, while sending a lot of guys in motion. All of these elements are not that dissimilar from what Teddy ran at Louisville. Manziel could also be in play, but I don't think he can live within such a limiting scheme.

Jacksonville trades:
> 2nd Round (#39)
> 3rd Round (#70)
> 5th Round (#144)

Kansas City trades:
> 1st Round (#23)
> 7th Round (#200)

#24 - Cincinnati Bengals : Bradley Roby [CB, Ohio State]

In previous years, the Bengals have had the luxury of (former DC) Mike Zimmer's expertise to get more production out of retreads and lesser talents. Now that Zimmer is gone, it will be interesting to see how the back 7 of the defense responds. My guess is that the concerns over the limitations of the defensive backfield will lead to early picks to fill the talent gap. Drafting Roby will please the fan base, as they are all aware of the home state Buckeye's unparralleled atheticism and ability. This also follows every Bengal draft strategy (and cheap scouting), ove rthe last 10 years, by picking big school prospects ONLY.

#25 - San Diego Chargers : Taylor Lewan [LT, Michigan]

If Lewan slides this far (or farther), I think it will a typical microcosm of the draft process. What I mean is that scouts usually firm up evaluations well before the media and coaching staffs. So when the Combine rolls around, freakish performances at the "Underwear Olympics" become the first impression for most. In most cases, I'm no different. But the hype is too high. That said, he still can be a steady LT in the NFL. This move would allow DJ Fluker to move from LT to RT, and King Dunlap to a more appropriate swing tackle role. This still doesn't address the most glaring need at CB, but this is the right value pick here.

#26 - Chicago Bears (from Cleveland) : C.J. Mosley [MLB, Alabama]

I like Mosley at 26, not at 14 where the Bears were at. There are just too many difference makers in the draft, and no matter how you slice it MLBs (not named Luke Kuechly or Ray Lewis) are no better than fringe first round picks. Tack on the fact that Mosley lacks elite atheticism and has a notable injury history, the risk is lessened at 26. If he can stay healthy, Mosley will help fix the league's worst run defense. The experiment to have John Bostic or D.J. Williams at Mike Backer can be put to rest. And both can compete for playing time at weakside OLB, where they are better suited.

#27 - New Orleans Saints : Jordan Matthews [WR, Vanderbilt]

If the Saints were to draft biggest need, it would be OT. As Nevada's Joel Bitonio is more OG than OT, I dont' think they go that direction. So now that Sean Peyton is without Lance Moore, GM Mickey Loomis needs to find a steady target for Drew Brees. Matthews was extremely refined for a collegiate receiver, and has the ability to play the slot or on the perimeter which is key for Peyton's offense. Any concerns over his speed or separation skills are absurd. The only adjustment Matthews will experience will be moving away from scatter-shot QBs to Drew Brees. Hopefully, he can adjust to accurate throws.

# 28 - Carolina Panthers : Joel Bitonio [OT/OG, Nevada]

In a two minute analysis of the roster, I see a ton of holes. For example, the Panthers' fierce D was owed to having four superstar impact players, the rest road their coattails. On offense, Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, and Ryan Kalil were the only players that the Panthers don't have to worry about. And after letting Steve Smith go, could there be team with a greater need at WR? I doubt it. But because the Panthers offense devalues WRs, more so this year as they fold in more two-TE sets, I think they go OT. Where Travis Bond and Nate Chandler represent the saddest duo of starting tackles in the NFL.

#29 - *** TRADE *** Houston Texans (from New England) : Zach Mettenberger [QB, LSU]

In the NFL, GMs average about a 3-4 year lifespan. If they don't have a starting caliber QB, they will need to prove that they are doing everything in their power to get one, or they'll be gone. GM Rick Smith has enjoyed 7 years as GM, but after last year's disastrous performance Smith will be on notice. Sure he can wait and see if Mettenberger falls to them, but if a team trades up to nab him, I'm not sure Smith is comfortable placing his job in the hands of Johnny Manziel. At least within Mettenberger, is a prototypical QB that HC Bill O'Brien is used to working with. If you disagree, picture O'Brien's old Patriot offense run by a QB that doesn't work within the constructs of the system. How would that go over?

Houston trades:
> 2nd Round (#33)
> 2015 4th Round Pick

New England trades:
> 1st Round (#29)

#30 - Dallas Cowboys (from San Francisco) : Kareem Martin [DE, North Carolina]

Last year, Grandpa Kiffin was brought in to transition the Cowboys to a 4-3 alignment. The change failed miserably as the Cowboys gave up the 3rd most yards per carry and was 25th in sacks. That said, I'm sure this schematic change was somehow aligned with phasing out DeMarcus Ware's deteriorated skills and inflated contract. But now that Ron Marinelli is the DC, a D-line guru, I imagine things will change up front. Kareem Martin has great size/speed/atheticism and was very productive in college. Why he hasn't gotten more pub is a mystery for me, but he could be a good strong-side DE.

#31 - Denver Broncos : Donte Moncrief [WR, Mississippi]

It's highway robbery that the Broncos roster is as good as it is. They have so few holes, that they could easily go with the BPA appraoch and not regret it the least bit. If they did have a need, it would be at OT, MLB, or CB. But with what's available, I think they go with the best player available. If I had to guess what their board would look like, I would think that Donte Moncrief would be just that guy. He offers the same silly freakish athetic ability that could grow into something special, like Demaryius Thomas. While having a guy like Moncrief on the roster, it would remove leverage that Thomas would have in this contract year.

#32 - Seattle Seahawks : Marcus Roberson [CB, Florida]

The Seahawks have a knack for plugging in CBs whenever one goes down, but this year they lost two good CBs. Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond will be hard to replace, so this pick makes a lot of sense. Roberson was always the other CB in Florida, as Loucheiz Purifoy was more highly touted. But Roberson checks all the boxes that Seattle wants in their CBs. Good size, long arms, good tackles, and can play press man. If not CB, there is a need to replace Breno Giacomini and Paul McQuistan who shared RT duties.

Big Board 2.0 – For your mid-day poop!

I’ve had so many iterations since I last posted my Big Board, that it’s about time I show you the changes. This 2.0 edition has more “Gow”-ness influencing rankings. But again I’m trying to also stay true to NFL evaluator perceptions. There is a ton of smoke-screen rumors as we are now a few weeks into the season of lies. That said, below you will see which rumors I have bought into... and which ones I call bull shit.

In most draft classes I would say that there are about 10-12 guys that are 1^st round values. Conversely, this means that teams are forced to accept prospects that are not as good as their draft position. This year crop is extremely deep. Not including fringe 1^st rounders, I’d give 19 guys true 1^st round value. It’s a hard concept to understand, but just view the talent in the top half of this draft as a 2X improvement over a typical draft class.

1.       DE | Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina – #1 Overall Talent

2.       OT | Greg Robinson | Auburn – #1 Overall Talent

3.       DT | Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh – Top 5 Talent

4.       OT | Jake Matthews | Texas A&M – Top 5

5.       WR | Sammy Watkins | Clemson – Top 5

6.       WR | Mike Evans | Texas A&M – Top 5

7.       CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State – Top 10 Talent

8.       OLB | Kahlil Mack | Buffalo – Top 10

9.       WR | Brandin Cooks | Oregon State – 1^st Round Talent

10.   OT | Morgan Moses | Virginia – 1^st Round

11.   TE | Eric Ebron | North Carolina – 1^st Round

12.   WR | Odell Beckham | LSU – 1^st Round

13.   S | HaHa Clinton-Dix | Alabama – 1^st Round

14.   QB | Derek Carr | Fresno State – 1^st Round

15.   WR | Marquise Lee | USC – 1^st Round

16.   DT | Ra’Shede Hageman | Minnesota – 1^st Round

17.   OLB | Ryan Shazier | Ohio State – 1^st Round

18.   OT | Taylor Lewan | Michigan – 1^st Round

19.   OG | Zach Martin | Notre Dame – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round Talent

20.   OLB | Dee Ford | Auburn – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round Talent

21.   CB | Kyle Fuller | Virginia Tech – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

22.   QB | Blake Bortles | UCF – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

23.   DE | Kareem Martin | North Carolina – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

24.   ILB | C.J. Mosley | Alabama – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

25.   TE | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Washington – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

26.   QB | Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

27.   CB | Phillip Gaines | Rice – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

28.   DT | Dominique Easley | Florida – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

29.   OG | Xavier Su’a-Filo | UCLA – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

30.   WR | Donte Moncrief | Ole Miss – 2^nd Round Talent

31.   WR | Jordan Matthews | Vanderbilt – 2^nd Round

32.   QB | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M – 2^nd Round

33.   OG | Dakota Dozier | Furman – 2^nd Round

34.   WR | Kelvin Benjamin | Florida State – 2^nd Round

35.   OLB | Anthony Barr | UCLA – 2^nd Round

36.   S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville – 2^nd Round

37.   DE | Scott Crichton | Oregon State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round Talent

38.   DE | Kony Ealy | Missouri – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

39.   S | Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

40.   OLB | Jeremiah Attaochu | Georgia Tech – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

41.   OLB | Carl Bradford | Arizona State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

42.   QB | Zach Mettenberger | LSU – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

43.   DT | Louis Nix | Notre Dame – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

44.   OG | David Yankey | Stanford – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

45.   CB | Bradley Roby | Ohio State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

46.   CB | Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

47.   WR | Cody Latimer | Indiana – 3^rd Round Talent

48.   DT | Timmy Jernigan | Florida State – 3^rd Round

49.   C | Marcus Martin | USC – 3^rd Round

50.   WR | Davante Adams | Fresno State – 3^rd Round

Notable Stock Up:

·         Morgan Moses has a very good chance at being this year’s DJ Fluker. He is an extremely athletic giant specimen, who is often getting pegged as a limited RT. His nimble feet, great size, and long arms will make him an enticing option for teams looking for a LT.

·         Looks like personnel decision makers are now reviewing Derek Carr’s tape from the prior season, when he played in a pro-style offense. Taking the two year’s of game tape and comparing him to “Big 3 QBs” lack of arm talent, I see his stock rising.

·         Austin Seferian-Jenkins (aka – A.S.J.) is a better overall talent than Eric Ebron. His end-of-year injury has kept him from impressing NFL guys at the Combine. But in the next few weeks, I expect negative rumors to arise falsely pointing to laziness, lack of strength, and injury concern.