Cost to trade up: Just to meet the trade value, Atlanta would have to give up the following. But merely meeting trade value is a travesty for a once-a-generation sack artist. Overall, this is a lot to give up... but again, I think they should ask for more.
- 1st RD pick #6
- 2nd RD pick #37
- 4th RD pick #103
- 2015 1st RD pick
Why this DOES NOT makes sense: New DC Romeo Crennel is inheriting a defense that produced the 3rd worst sack totals last year. Within the Texan front 7, Clowney would be utilized as a predator OLB, who attacks the QB on almost every down. Paired with JJ Watt, Clowney would be a near lock for double-digit sacks every year. Atlanta also has a lot of leverage, as they are a near lock for major needs in Khalil Mack, Greg Robinson, or Jake Matthews. So there is not a major need to trade up.
Chances of happening: 70% - It's taken me some time to come to this conclusion, but I think the Texans really want to trade down. So bad, that they probably will trade down for less than what one should net for someone of Clowney's talent level.
What would Houston hope for at #6?: A potential trade down to the Falcons 6th pick will telegraph a QB selection for new offensive minded HC Bill O'Brien to build his offense around. That said, I would guess it is a toss up between Blake Bortles and Derek Carr. In turn, this will make Oakland's #5 pick an easy target for a team looking to trade up to grab likely targets Mack, Bortles, or Carr.
Rumor: The Cowboys drafting Johnny Manziel
Why this DOES NOT make sense: Last year, the Cowboys signed Romo to a 6 yr / $108M with $40M in guarantees. Financially tied to Romo makes it very hard for the annually cap strapped Cowboys from moving on from Romo before 2018. Cutting Romo earlier than that would cause additional financial burden for a team that can't seem to manage it's checkbook.
Why this DOES make sense: Tony Romo is 34 years old, and over the years he has taken a beating behind a poor offensive line. Because of this, Romo gets nicked up... and of late has had to have a few back surgeries. Troy Aikman, who had his own back injuries, knows the rigors of the position and is concerned about Romo's future outlook. Tack on the fact that Jerry Jones likes to take chances on greatness, and Manziel being a Texas product, this might just happen.
Chances of happening: 20% - Considering all the financials this is a very high percentage. Jerry Jones has never been one to take to a conservative cap management outlook, and I don't think that starts this year. So if Manziel is available at 16, I think he is a possibility. The question is, will he be there? Will someone more logical fall to 16?
Rumor: Teddy Bridgewater falling out of the 1st round
Why this DOES NOT make sense: There is a clear corollary between teams with steady QB play and winning organizations. When it comes to drafting QBs, they should never be held to a typical Big Board, as the need will always outweigh comparative value. Schematic fits will also cause teams to over-draft QBs... as does the urgency for a GM or head coach to keep their job.
Specific to this draft, there are about 7 teams that Bridgewater could be selected in the 1st round.
Why this DOES make sense: Bridgewater's Pro Day, a.k.a. "Glove-Gate", has given doubters fertile ground to stand on. Concerns over Teddy's slight frame, non-vocal leadership ways, his own admitted discomfort with cold weather, and lack of an "it" factor... are enough to cast plenty more doubt. Also, evaluators are vocal about the lack of elite high-end quality in this crop. The possibility of the most likely teams, at the very top of the draft, passing on QBs for round 1 only increases the likelihood of top QBs falling to the 2nd.
Chances of happening: 20% - No need to explain
Clowney is unreal, but Atlanta really needs to upgrade their O-Line if they want to do anything next season.
ReplyDeleteManziel to Dallas seems like the perfect fit. I could easily see this happening. Biggest challenge will be if Manziel actually drops that far (I'm skeptical).
Gow and I are going to battle over Teddy for years to come. I think this is all a bunch of nonsense. I have a hard time believing all these rumors, but this is a lot of smoke with no fire. If he actually does fall to the end of the 1st or into the 2nd, he's going to make a lot of teams look foolish. I understand concern over a bad pro day, but it's just a freaking pro day. If NFL GM's are that reactionary, they should be losing their jobs. I think size concerns are legit, but the guy is great in the pocket, elite accuracy and placement, and is great a making multiple reads. I want him. And I will root for whatever team drafts him (unless it's GB).
I think if Teddy slips in the draft, someone will trade up to the end of the first round to draft him. This guy was the #1 pick almost all through the season. Maybe he's not a top 10 talent, but he is a top 32 talent.
ReplyDeleteI absolutely see Jerry drafting Romo's replacement this year. Jerry loves hype and drafting Manziel will just add to it. Heck, I could see them trading up for Manziel, but I could be wrong. I'm positive that if he's there at 16, he's going to the cowboys.
If I'm Houston and I don't get what I want in trade value for my pick, I'm keeping it rather than getting a less than desirable package. I'm not going to comment on who they should take, but whoever it is will help their team so I don't see a lot of motivation to move the pick just to move it.