Sobering up from (some of my) drunk opinions

For the upcoming draft, here is my Big Board. This analysis is a high-level perspective based on the following: [1] Each players physical ability; [2] How transferable their skills; and [3] Most importantly... how NFL personnel decision makers (usually) would view prospects that have similar attributes and characteristics.

Also as best I can (I repeat, as best I can), I have pulled out areas where my opinions vary greatly from other Big Boards you have seen. This does not mean I am caving in on all of my opinions. The purpose of this post was to put a "close to a real-life" Big Board out there. Obviously, each team will have a very different board, as scheme and need-fit will always play a factor. The comments below on position or scheme are for "best fits". This can be due to their individual strengths or limitations, but either way for value to be maximized, this is the type of role I think they would have to play in. In future posts, I'll dive into what I believe the Vikings and Browns Big Board will be in a later post.

Of note: The top 25 on here are my 1st Round values, #26 to #34 are my fringe 1st Rounders, rest are 2nd Round values.

Opinions and questions are more than welcome. Enjoy.

1. Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina | 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB
2. Greg Robinson | Auburn | LT or RT, Man or Zone Blocking Scheme (ZBS)
3. Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh | 4-3 3-Technique DT
4. Sammy Watkins | Clemson | Flanker (FL) or Slot WR
5. Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State | Man or Press CB
6. Jake Matthews | Texas A&M | LT, Man or ZBS
7. Kahlil Mack | Buffalo | 3-4 OLB, 3-4 ILB
8. Mike Evans | Texas A&M | Split End (SE) WR, Vertical Offense
9. Taylor Lewan | Michigan | LT or RT, Man or ZBS
10. Brandin Cooks | Oregion State | FL or Slot WR, West Coast Offense (WCO)
11. Dee Ford | Auburn | 3-4 OLB, 4-3 7or9-Technique, Attacking D
12. Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville | Spread Offense
13. Zach Martin | Notre Dame | OG or OT, Man or ZBS
14. Marquis Lee | USC | Possession FL WR
15. Jordan Matthews | Vanderbilt | SE or FL WR
16. Calvin Pryor | Louisville | SS or FS, Physical D
17. Eric Ebron | North Carolina | Move TE, Pass-first Offense
18. Blake Bortles | Central Florida | Conservative Play-Action Offense
19. HaHa Clinton-Dix | Alabama | FS, Cover 2 Defense
20. Ra'Shede Hageman | Minnesota | 3-4 DE, 4-3 Under 5-Technique DE
21. Ryan Shazier | Ohio State | 4-3 OLB, 3-4 ILB
22. Odell Beckham | LSU | FL WR, Vertical Offense
23. Kyle Fuller | Virginia Tech | Man or Press CB
24. CJ Mosley | Alabama | 3-4 ILB, 4-3 Mike LB
25. Xavier Su'a-Filo | UCLA | OG Man or ZBS
26. Derek Carr | Fresno State | WCO
27. Brandon Thomas | Clemson | OG or OT, Man Blocking
28. Scott Crichton | Oregon State | 4-3 DE
29. Kevin Norwood | Alabama | FL WR
30. Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | QB, Spread Read-Option Offense
31. Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State | Press CB
32. Anthony Barr | UCLA | 3-4 OLB, 4-3 OLB, Attacking D
33. Phillip Gaines | Rice | Man or Press CB
34. Morgan Moses | Virginia | LT or RT, Man Blocking
35. Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois | FS or SS
36. Kelvin Benjamin | Florida State | SE WR, Run-first Offense
37. Kony Ealy | Missouri | 4-3 DE 
38. Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Washington | In-line TE, Run-first or WCO
39. Dominique Easley | Florida | 4-3 3-Technique DT
40. Allen Robinson | Penn State | Possession WR, WCO
41. Dakota Dozier | Furman | OG, Man or ZBS
42. Troy Niklas | Notre Dame | In-line TE, Run-first or WCO
43. David Yankey | Stanford | OG, Man Blocking, Run-first Offense
44. Carl Bradford | Arizona State | 3-4 OLB or 3-4 ILB
45. Louis Nix | Notre Dame | 3-4 NT or 4-3 1-Technique DT
46. Marcus Roberson | Florida | Man or Press CB
47. Jordan Tripp | Montana | 3-4 OLB, 3-4 ILB, 4-3 OLB
48. Bradley Roby | Ohio State | Man or Zone CB
49. Marcus Martin | USC | C, Man or ZBS
50. Jared Abbrederis | Wisconsin | FL WR

Start of Free Agency

The post combine, pre-free agency, period has been pretty interesting. This is the second year that the NFL has instituted a three-day “legal tampering” period, which allows perspective teams to openly negotiate with soon-to-be free agents. This timeframe started Saturday, with the start of Free Agency beginning Tuesday.

This relatively new rule change and new offseason schedule has put an emphasis on quickly getting salary cap finances in order. Thus, teams are frantically cutting and restructuring unproductive contracts. Teams like the Cowboys (-$16M) and the Steelers (-$6M) are the only ones with a negative salary cap space and obviously have more work to do. While the Raiders, Browns, and Jaguars all have over $55M in cap space. Of note, the Vikings are in the upper third of teams with +$35M.

So what does this mean for the Vikings?

GM Rick Speilman has been pretty active. Cutting (MLB) Erin Henderson, (TE) John Carlson, and (DT) Letroy Guion. While resigning (QB) Matt Cassel and (CB/KR) Marcus Sherels. No doubt all of these moves were to support the new OC Norv Turner and new defensive-minded HC Mike Zimmer. With the healthy cap space and Adrian Peterson gaining some wear and tear on his treads, the WIN NOW mentality is more likely than not. After all, Speilman fired Leslie Frazier and brought in his own guys. So a season at the bottom of the NFC North, though likely, it is not acceptable.

Free Agency Outlook: Everything is focused on the defensive side, as need seems more immediate.

·         The Vikings are extremely fortunate that this year’s UFA crop of DEs have elite young classic 4-3 edge rushers that can also hold up at the POA. I would be shocked if one of these guys did not get signed by the Vikings.

o   Michael Bennett, 6’4”, 274, 28 years old (Elite)

o   Michael Johnson, 6’7”, 270, 27 years old (Great)

o   Lamar Houston, 6’3”, 300, 26 years old (Great)

o   Robert Ayers, 6’3”, 274, 28 years old (Good)

o   Matt Shaughnessy, 6’5” 285, 27 years old (Good)

·         Also, not a banner singing, but please bring Everson Griffen back.

·         Defensive Tackle is another position I would try to address in FA versus the Draft. From what I see, I think that there is a need for a 1-Technique DT. This calls a +300 lbs power defender that can not only hold up at the POA, but also collapse the pocket into the QB. Linval Joseph and Jason Hatcher are the best 1T, but any zero technique NT is an acceptable stop gap.

·         If Speilman is looking for a cheap 3T to rotate with Sharriff Floyd, look no further than Clinton McDonald. Back in August, McDonald was traded from the Bengals to Seattle. During training camp McDonald was revered by Zimmer.

·         I’m a little surprised that Chris Cook wasn’t resigned (yet). Sure he has under-achieved his draft status, but Zimmer’s track record making DBs successful pros is well known. Cook’s youth, size, speed, and athletic ability could equate to Zimmer’s best DB product in recent memory. I do not expect him to last long in FA. If the Vikings fail to sign him, they should make a run at a mid-tier CB like Sam Shields, Walter Thurmond, Tarell Brown, Corey Graham, or Terrell Thomas.

Rankings of the rest

In this edition, I take a stab at the hardest position to project into the NFL (Running Backs). As the casual fan now knows, RBs are devalued in today’s NFL game. Over the years, rules have changed to make it difficult for defenders to impose their physical bravado, like they use to do in years prior. This has led to a natural shift in focus to the vertical passing game. The days of the feature back, toting the ball 20 plus times a game, with the aim of control the clock and wear down the defense is no longer the primary offensive philosophy.

Positive or negative, this change is probably good for draft evaluators and their job security. Quarterbacks aside, highly drafted RBs are about as risky of a draft decision as you can make. Many personnel evaluators, nowadays, say that you can find quality RBs in the later rounds. This statement is absolutely correct. Aside from the de-emphasis of the running game, it is near impossible to project a draftee as an NFL RB.

Watching collegiate game tape of a dominant running back can be misleading in so many ways. Is the guy really good, or did he have a dominant offensive line. Or maybe he played in a misdirection running scheme that tried to fool defenders, or possibly lined up against some god awful defenses. So aside from sifting through questionable game tape, they have to project how decisive the RB would be against larger defenders, smaller holes, and almost no time to hesitate. Then there is the absolute necessity, for RBs to be able to pass protect or find a spot on the bench. So knowing and understanding NFL protection schemes, identifying the proper defender, and having the technique and stoutness to do so… are almost alien concepts to college RBs.

With that, let me unveil my rankings…

Running Backs

1.       Carlos Hyde [Ohio State] – Powerful one-cut downhill runner, who should excel in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Negatives: His style could lead to injuries, and he is an idiot off the field.

2.       Jerick McKinnon [Georgia Southern] – I’m not concerned about the small school tag. Because he is fast, quick, explosive, and he got game. Though his 8 5/8 hands could lead to fumbles.

3.       Bishop Sankey [Washington] – 5’9” with choppy steps and is being compared to Gio Benard. Not sure though, Sankey is stronger and a better runner… but lacks Benard’s hands and acceleration.

4.       Devonta Freeman [Florida State] – 5’8” is a gift and a curse. He might not hold up in the NFL, but defenders lose track of him, and he sure can get into-and-out-of an opening (quickly).

5.       Henry Josey [Missouri] – Josey has durability concerns coming off of one of the worst knee injuries ever seen (No joke). But the kid is a home run hitter and has an amazing work ethic.

Offensive Guards

1.       Zach Martin [Notre Dame] – Height and arm length are short of what a prototypical tackle would need. Regardless, this barrel chested gamer is a Pro Bowl OG in a zone blocking scheme.

2.       Dakota Dozier [Furman] –Admittedly I’m riding the hype train on this one. Aside from the coolest name, he dominated the E/W Shrine Game while being was crazy agile and smooth in Indy.

3.       Xavier Su’a-Filo [UCLA] – Athletic and well-rounded, he dominated with more technique than you would expect from a college lineman. One criticism would be his build could use gym work.

4.       Brandon Thomas [Clemson] - Another potential offenseive tackle, with long arms, but on the short side. Guys like this are much better suited inside, as they can be a liability on the outside.

5.       David Yankey [Stanford] – I think this guy could be a solid pro. He is tall, solid length, and a typical OL technician out of Stanford. But got overwhelmed against Michigan State at the Rose Bowl.

6.       Gabe Jackson [Mississippi State] – A classic road-grader that belongs in a power run game. But without refinement in pass protection he could be a project, which could limit his suitors.

Centers

1.       Weston Richburg [Colorado State] – I have no idea. I hear good things. But seriously, he had a solid combine and showed enough athleticism to play in a zone blocking scheme.

2.       Marcus Martin [USC] – Abnormally long arms for a center, and a NFL-ready frame, evaluators will likely think they can make a future Pro Bowler out of this former highly recruited lineman.

Defensive Tackles

1.       Aaron Donald [Pittsburgh] – Anyone who says there was a more impressive combine performance than this guy is lying. Classic 3-Technique that has all the tools to be a great one.

2.       Dominique Easley [Florida] – Pre 2013 ACL tear, he would have given Aaron Donald a running for top 3T DT in this draft. If he falls to the 2^nd Rd, he will be an extreme value pick.

3.       Louis Nix [Notre Dame] – Because of his lack of agility and ability to collapse the pocket, Nix is likely isolated to a zero technique nose tackle in a 3-4. Classic fat guy that you can’t move.

4.       Timmy Jernigan [Florida State] – Holy Draft Day slide Batman! A la Sharriff Floyd. Short armed 1T DTs that get by in college with strength, and lack explosiveness shouldn’t be 1^st Rounders.

5.       Caraun Reid [Princeton] – Any Ivy Leaguer is definitely a sleeper in any draft process. That said, small school draftees need to capitalize on the Combine and Senior Bowl like this guy.

Cornerbacks

1.       Justin Gilbert [Oklahoma State] – As far as CBs go, he is the prettiest girl at the dance. Prototypical size, exceptional length, speed, ability to high-point the ball, smooth hip turnover. He good.

2.       Phillip Gaines [Rice] – Sure he played against subpar competition, but was a true shutdown corner. Will it transfer to the NFL? Maybe. His good combine supports his good game tape.

3.       Kyle Fuller [Virginia Tech] – Damn good cover corner, with prototypical size, speed, and length. Measurables are definitely there, tackles well, but knock would be his lack of splash plays.

4.       Darquenze Dennard [Michigan State] – I though the NFL network made too many excuses for Dennard’s poor combine performance. Press corner or not, he lacks speed and fluidity.

5.       Marcus Roberson [Florida] – Big upside natural man cover corner, extremely instinctive, and can take the other teams #1 on. Downside = Slow 40, injury prone and an off the field liability.

Toilet Times - More Rankings

I think you all know me pretty well, and know I carry opinions that are my own. So when you see these rankings, they will likely differ from others out there. Sure, I can totally see how this would come off as me being a contrarian or someone seeking a provocative reaction. So be it.

Wide Receivers

1.       Jordan Matthews [Vanderbilt] – I see Fitzgerald here. He has a 6’3” 212 lb frame, length, and big hands. Doubts about his athleticism were put to rest at the combine, and he is unquestionably refined.

2.       Brandin Cooks [Oregon State] – Confession. I’ve had a love affair with him for 2 yrs. He has acceleration, change of direction, sticky hands, and tough. But his 5’9” height is concerning.

3.       Sammy Watkins [Clemson] – Everyone’s #1 WR, and in other drafts I would too. I just think his body control and catching the ball away from his body fall behind the top two guys.

4.       Mike Evans [Texas A&M] – If he figures it out, he could be very good. He needs refinement with getting off the line and route running skills, but 35 inch arms and a 6’4” 231 lb frame… crazy.

5.       Allen Robinson [Penn State] – Extremely productive collegiate career, good size, strength, which should lead to an effective NFL career. That said, he might fly under the radar in this talented class.

6.       Martavis Bryant [Clemson] – No joke, I think he has Randy Moss freak potential. Height, speed, explosion, and length… scouts will emphatically pound the table for this guy. But raw raw raw.

7.       Kevin Norwood [Alabama] – 2^nd Confession, I hate hate hate Alabama prospects. That said, here is an exception. He has a very high floor and an unknown ceiling, very safe pick, will be a good pro.

8.       Marquise Lee [USC] – Gow must hate him, right? This is a STACKED draft class. Last year he would have been the #1 WR. Games speed is better than his 40, but his injury history is a concern.

9.       Odell Beckham [LSU] – A combine darling that showcased his athleticism, with quite the bandwagon. Could be wrong, but I see more athlete than football player… and Landry was better at LSU.

10.   Jared Abbrederis [Wisconsin] – White people can play WR too. Haters will hate, but he is the real deal. His game tape and measurable line up, so I am sold. And, he grows a mean Amish beard.

Offensive Tackles

1.       Greg Robinson [Auburn] – O-line coaches and scouts are crazy giddy over this guy. He dominates defenders, smacks them in the mouth, and flattens them. Could be the best OT in the last 10 years.

2.       Jake Matthews [Texas A&M] – Bloodlines are clearly impressive. He is a safe pick that can probably play all 5 positions. I just think he is a distant second to Greg Robinson.

3.       Morgan Moses [Virginia] – 6’6” 314 lbs frame, 35 inch go-go gadget arms, and good foot work. He is a 1^st round talent but might not get the pub that other guys will get in this process.

4.       Taylor Lewan [Michigan] – Agreed, the guy struggles with speed rushers and consistent play. That said, he is 6’7” with long arms and has a nasty streak. He can be molded into an All-Pro.

5.       Joel Bitonio [Nevada] – He had a solid Senior Bowl and was very fluid in Indy. The team that picks him will surely have an underwhelmed fan base with his selection, but he could be solid.

3-4 Outside Linebackers

1.       Khalil Mack [Buffalo] – Small school guy that won’t sneak up on casual fans anymore. Could be near-elite in an “attacking” 3-4, afterthought in a 4-3. Also lacks natural bend around the corner.

2.       Alex Barr [UCLA] – At the start of the year, he was thought to give Clowney a run for top defender. His 2013 play was uninspiring, but he has insane potential to be a dominant pass rusher.

3.       Dee Ford [Auburn] – He is an unreal edge rusher, who is best suited to rush the passer in a two-point stance. He needs to work on counter moves to his speed rush, and defend the run better.

4.       Jordan Tripp [Montana] – I don’t say this lightly, but this guy flat out lit the combine on fire. But because he is a white LB from Montana, he is seen more as a hidden gem than front-page news.

4-3 Outside Linebackers

1.       Ryan Shazier [Ohio State] – He could be the best WILL backer to come out in a while. He is extremely instinctive, explosive, and fast fast fast.

2.       Kevin Pierre-Louis [Boston College] – His combine woke up evaluators. Right there next to the aforementioned Jordan Tripp, his combine was elite. He made money in Indy.

Inside Linebackers

1.       C.J. Mosley [Alabama] – The self-proclaimed Bama hater is warming to crimson red. Mosley is fast, physical, instinctive and well-rounded in all facets. A notch below Kuechley, but All-Pro for sure.

2.       Christian Jones [Florida State] – FSU had an embarrassment of riches on defense, which gives me pause in ranking Jones highly. That said, he has elite speed and athletic ability.

3.       Chris Borland [Wisconsin] – Begrudgingly I put him on here. Borland is a thumping instinctive run-defender, but lacks speed and size. Technically a poor fit for both the 3-4 and 4-3.

Stay regular folks, Metamucil anybody?

So very pleased that we all pay appropriate attention to our poop schedules. So as a supportive friend, I’ll give you more reading fodder as you squeeze out your daily turds.

As usual, Crapswell had a pretty stupid request asking for position rankings. Does he know that he can get this on just about any website? That said, I’m probably more of an idiot to oblige such a request. So shown below are MY rankings of a few positions. I'll hit up the other positions later.

Quarterbacks:

1.       Derek Carr [Fresno State] – Great arm, touch, and leadership. But did not shine in bowl game versus USC, as offensive line struggled to give him clear throwing lanes and time.

2.       Johnny Manziel [Texas A&M] – Amazing elusiveness and playmaking ability. But might need a simplified offense scheme, as he struggles to make appropriate reads.

3.       Teddy Bridgewater [Louisville] – Technically sound and in-pocket movement. But more of a system QB, who played poor competition, and took the safe and short passes way too often.

4.       Blake Bortles [Central Florida] – Great poise in the pocket and is probably the safest QB in the draft. But lacks any wow factor, and I’m not sure if he has ever took over a game at UCF.

5.       Zach Mettenberger [LSU] – Best arm of the draft, and improved his QB IQ under Cam Cameron at LSU. But due to his ACL tear and one-year wonder tag, he could take a tumble in the draft.

6.       Brett Smith [Wyoming] – Think Johnny Football, but with a better arm and size. But without a combine invite, poor supporting cast, and coming out of Wyoming… scouts will have to sell him.

Tight Ends:

1.       Eric Ebron [North Carolina] – With great athleticism and ability to stretch the field, Mayock compares him to Vernon Davis. But his ability to catch in traffic and in-line blocking need work.

2.       Austin Seferian-Jenkins [Washington] – Great size, length, blocking, and catching in traffic… he is the perfect in-line TE, which is a rarity in today’s NFL. He lacks Amaro’s stats or Ebron’s 40 time.

3.       Colt Lyerla [Oregon] – It could have been Lyerla at the top of this crazy stacked list of TEs, that’s how good he is. But a cocaine possession arrest and a messy off-the-field history, UDFA?

4.       Troy Niklas [Notre Dame] – Lightning strikes twice, as here is another in-line TE that could light up the league. Though with only two years of work at TE he is raw, but is Kyle Rudolph-esque.

5.       Jace Amaro [Texas A&M] – I won’t say anything good about this guy. Coming out of a pass-happy offense, and a defense optional conference, he is overhyped. He is a very poor move TE.

6.       Xavier Grimble [USC] – A classic 5-star recruit that underachieved at USC, due to getting lost in the talent-filled offense that did not feature TEs. He’s my dark-horse long-shot in this class.

Defensive Ends (Classic 4-3 DE):

1.       Jadeveon Clowney [South Carolina] – His last 12 months have mirrored that of Quinton Coples, two years prior. Supremely talented stud that took a shit on the field for his last collegiate year.

2.       Scott Crichton [Oregon State] – I am a huge fan of this guy. He was constantly double-teamed and has an insane motor. I am eager to see how his arm length and broad jump will measure up.

3.       Kony Ealy [Missouri] – Prototypical height/weight combination, and is accompanied by pretty decent statistics. But reading between the lines, I think he is being elevated in a week DE class.

Defensive Ends (5-Technique, 3-4 DE):

1.       Ra’Shede Hageman [Minnesota] – Unique combination of size, length, strength, and athleticism. If he is put into an attacking odd front, he could be JJ Watt… otherwise he’ll be mediocre.

2.       Taylor Hart [Oregon] – For a 5T DE, he put up amazing tackle numbers. Which only speaks to his ability read, react, and shed blocks. Keeping things in perspective, he should be a 3^rd round pick.

3.       Stephon Tuitt [Notre Dame] – Tuitt failed to add positive bulk to his frame. In 2013, he was fat, lazy, and a non-factor. That said, he’ll likely get a pass on 2013 and teams will draft off of 2012 game tape.

Safeties:

1.       Calvin Pryor [Louisville] – Huge fan of this guy. I choose to trust that his domination is more so due to his ability, than the lack of talent offenses Louisville played. He is a stat sheet filler.

2.       Haha Clinton-Dix [Alabama] – If he has a good combine, I think he could be a 1^st rounder. That said, he seldom made splash plays. Which could be due to a conservative scheme, but no sure.

3.       Hakeem Smith [Louisville] – I have seen enough of Louisville games to know that Smith is solid against the pass and the run. I don’t know if any other eligible safeties cover as well.

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February false truths

February. The time to shovel your drive way, kick the frozen blocks of sand and salt off your car, and time for this guy to get into full NFL Draft prep mode. This year’s tweak to the NFL Draft process was pretty big. Some of the more notable changes were:

·         Senior Bowl was moved to the week before the Superbowl.

·         Free Agency was moved up sooner to March 11th.

·         NFL Draft was moved back to from the middle of April to early May.

All the aforementioned, was a shrewd move by the league to make the total NFL experience a continuous year-long ride. Now of course, this elongation has brought newfound opportunity for the NFL to capitalize on its product. Simply by shifting existing events around to bring each into its own spot-light... equating to TV revenues to pad the coffers.  So… what does this mean for the draft process?

Drawing out the draft process brings more time for decision-makers to scrutinize and mull over the minutia. GMs will over-analyze Jadeveon Clowney’s pad-level and Derek Carr throwing from an uneven base. As a Draft follower, it has created a ton of media group think… and has opened the door to a smoke-screen bonanza of false truths.

So here I will offer up what I believe to be reality. The “What I know, I know”.

·         There is no quarterback worth a top 3 pick in this draft, but there are at least 4 QBs better than any in last year’s class.

·         LT Greg Robinson (Auburn) is the best NFL prospect in this draft class. The buzz on this guy has not reached the level that it deserves. BTW, Jadeveon Clowney is easily the 2^nd best prospect.

·         This crop of Wide Receivers is the best that I have ever seen (by a mile). There will be WRs picked in 2^nd Round that will be better than 1^st rounders in a ton of other draft classes.

·         No one cares, but the Offensive Guard class has the same quality at the top and depth throughout the rounds. There will be draft parties across the country that will dial in a collective WTF, when their team drafts an OG in the first 2 rounds.

·         QB Brett Smith (Wyoming) getting snubbed by the NFL Combine is shocking. Who ever made that decision should be fired when this guy gets drafted in the 3^rd round (or better).

View this as a way to keep the blog alive in our FFB offseason. I’ll put some NFL Draft posts out here for your reading pleasure. Throw around some responses, and we’ll see where this takes us.