Big Board 2.0 – For your mid-day poop!

I’ve had so many iterations since I last posted my Big Board, that it’s about time I show you the changes. This 2.0 edition has more “Gow”-ness influencing rankings. But again I’m trying to also stay true to NFL evaluator perceptions. There is a ton of smoke-screen rumors as we are now a few weeks into the season of lies. That said, below you will see which rumors I have bought into... and which ones I call bull shit.

In most draft classes I would say that there are about 10-12 guys that are 1^st round values. Conversely, this means that teams are forced to accept prospects that are not as good as their draft position. This year crop is extremely deep. Not including fringe 1^st rounders, I’d give 19 guys true 1^st round value. It’s a hard concept to understand, but just view the talent in the top half of this draft as a 2X improvement over a typical draft class.

1.       DE | Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina – #1 Overall Talent

2.       OT | Greg Robinson | Auburn – #1 Overall Talent

3.       DT | Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh – Top 5 Talent

4.       OT | Jake Matthews | Texas A&M – Top 5

5.       WR | Sammy Watkins | Clemson – Top 5

6.       WR | Mike Evans | Texas A&M – Top 5

7.       CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State – Top 10 Talent

8.       OLB | Kahlil Mack | Buffalo – Top 10

9.       WR | Brandin Cooks | Oregon State – 1^st Round Talent

10.   OT | Morgan Moses | Virginia – 1^st Round

11.   TE | Eric Ebron | North Carolina – 1^st Round

12.   WR | Odell Beckham | LSU – 1^st Round

13.   S | HaHa Clinton-Dix | Alabama – 1^st Round

14.   QB | Derek Carr | Fresno State – 1^st Round

15.   WR | Marquise Lee | USC – 1^st Round

16.   DT | Ra’Shede Hageman | Minnesota – 1^st Round

17.   OLB | Ryan Shazier | Ohio State – 1^st Round

18.   OT | Taylor Lewan | Michigan – 1^st Round

19.   OG | Zach Martin | Notre Dame – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round Talent

20.   OLB | Dee Ford | Auburn – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round Talent

21.   CB | Kyle Fuller | Virginia Tech – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

22.   QB | Blake Bortles | UCF – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

23.   DE | Kareem Martin | North Carolina – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

24.   ILB | C.J. Mosley | Alabama – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

25.   TE | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Washington – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

26.   QB | Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

27.   CB | Phillip Gaines | Rice – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

28.   DT | Dominique Easley | Florida – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

29.   OG | Xavier Su’a-Filo | UCLA – Fringe 1^st/2^nd Round

30.   WR | Donte Moncrief | Ole Miss – 2^nd Round Talent

31.   WR | Jordan Matthews | Vanderbilt – 2^nd Round

32.   QB | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M – 2^nd Round

33.   OG | Dakota Dozier | Furman – 2^nd Round

34.   WR | Kelvin Benjamin | Florida State – 2^nd Round

35.   OLB | Anthony Barr | UCLA – 2^nd Round

36.   S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville – 2^nd Round

37.   DE | Scott Crichton | Oregon State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round Talent

38.   DE | Kony Ealy | Missouri – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

39.   S | Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

40.   OLB | Jeremiah Attaochu | Georgia Tech – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

41.   OLB | Carl Bradford | Arizona State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

42.   QB | Zach Mettenberger | LSU – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

43.   DT | Louis Nix | Notre Dame – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

44.   OG | David Yankey | Stanford – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

45.   CB | Bradley Roby | Ohio State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

46.   CB | Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State – Fringe 2^nd/3^rd Round

47.   WR | Cody Latimer | Indiana – 3^rd Round Talent

48.   DT | Timmy Jernigan | Florida State – 3^rd Round

49.   C | Marcus Martin | USC – 3^rd Round

50.   WR | Davante Adams | Fresno State – 3^rd Round

Notable Stock Up:

·         Morgan Moses has a very good chance at being this year’s DJ Fluker. He is an extremely athletic giant specimen, who is often getting pegged as a limited RT. His nimble feet, great size, and long arms will make him an enticing option for teams looking for a LT.

·         Looks like personnel decision makers are now reviewing Derek Carr’s tape from the prior season, when he played in a pro-style offense. Taking the two year’s of game tape and comparing him to “Big 3 QBs” lack of arm talent, I see his stock rising.

·         Austin Seferian-Jenkins (aka – A.S.J.) is a better overall talent than Eric Ebron. His end-of-year injury has kept him from impressing NFL guys at the Combine. But in the next few weeks, I expect negative rumors to arise falsely pointing to laziness, lack of strength, and injury concern.

Minnesota Vikings – A maverick at the helm

The Front Office

In 2011, Spielman took over as General Manager but is often incorrectly associated with the over-drafted bust we call Christian Ponder, with the 12^th overall pick that year. The Wilfs (Zygi and Mark) were the ones that made the call to draft Ponder… not Spielman. From that point on, the uber aggressive Rick Spielman took over and reshaped the team.

In 2012, we all remember that Spielman held the Browns at gun-point, looting them of draft picks, all for the price to swap the 3^rd and 4^th overall picks. With which the Vikings nabbed LT Matt Kalil, and the Browns grabbed Trent Richardson. With the extra bounty of picks accumulated in that trade, Spielman dealt into the back half of the 1^st, to grab FS Harrison Smith. What doesn’t get mentioned is that in total Spielman made 6 trades, including the exchange of a 6^th round pick to Washington for Donovan McNabb. The ugly side of this GM is his poor FA contracts he dishes out. His first mistake was overpaying John Carlson top 10 TE money, when he already had Kyle Rudolph as a surefire starter.

In 2013, Spielman’s aggressive ways continued. He didn’t want to commit to overpay Percy Harvin’s injury riddled body, and thus traded him to Seattle for a 1^st and 7^th round picks in the 2013 draft… while netting a 3^rd round pick in this year’s (2014) draft. In that draft the Vikings walked away with three 1^st round picks, the third coming by an insanely aggressive trade back into the 1^st again netting WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Who joined draft-slider DT Sharrif Floyd and CB Xavier Rhodes, to which virtual high-fives were exchanged by those reading this blog. During the FA period that year, he signed Matt Cassel to a reasonable 2-year deal, but WR Greg Jennings’ contract is God-awful. I’ve always been a Jennings fan, but the guy was 29 and the contract was going to pay him an insane base and guarantee money package through the age of 34. Between 2015-17, each year the cap hit would have been $11M (with $2M guaranteed) per year.

So needless to say, Spielman’s maverick ways are on full display.

Offseason Moves… To Date

Out with (OC) Bill Musgrave and in with (OC) Norv Turner – This is a monumental improvement, as Musgrave fell into the predictable play-caller realm, while Turner is (and has always been) a superior offensive mind in the league. He will open up physical space and opportunity for players to flourish.

Out with (HC) Leslie Frazier and in with (HC) Mike Zimmer – Both HCs were defensive-minded leaders, but unlike Frazier, Zimmer is actually seen as defensive guru. Even though both guys prefer the 4-3, schematically Frazier was a 4-3 “bend but don’t break” Tampa-2 zone technician. Zimmer is a more a collapse the pocket, man-on-man defensive mind that likes to force the offense out of their comfort zone.

Letting (TE) John Carlson walk – This was an addition by subtraction. Not a bad player, but he was grossly overpaid, and the team needs to rid themselves of unproductive contracts like his.

Re-signing (QB) Matt Cassel – Sure, in early spring, Cassel opted out of the 2^nd year of his contract. But after testing the market a little, he re-signed with the Vikings with a team-friendly deal. The deal is very similar to the one he signed a year ago, where the Vikings have the option to part ways after a single season.

Re-signing (DE) Everson Griffen – Spielman fucked up with Griffen’s monstrous 5-year $42.5M ($19.8M guaranteed) deal. Clearly, Spielman overpaid to keep Griffen from reaching free agency. For a guy that has ONE career start to his name, this contract is not merit based… just projected worth. To give further perspective, three guys that were much much much better options signed for 5/$43M (Michael Johnson), 4/$32M (Michael Bennett), and 5/$35M (Lamarr Houston). Oops.

Letting (CB) Chris Cook walk and signing (CB) Captain Munnerlyn – I’ve stated this before, this was a mistake. Cook under-performed his draft position, I get it. But he was ill-suited for Frazier’s Tampa-2 Zone. In Zimmer’s press-man defensive backfield, the lengthy 6’2” CB could have been special. While Munnerlyn, at 5’8”, is nothing more than a nickel CB. I highly doubt that Zimmer wants to head into the NFC North, where 6’4 WRs grow on trees, and he has to line up a guy that has an 8 inch disadvantage.

Signing (DT) Linval Joseph – Out of all the offseason moves, this will likely be the best. Joseph is easily one of the best 1-Technique DTs in the NFL. At only age 25, his contract is beautifully structured to minimize risk to the Vikings (if he somehow flops, which I doubt). He has amazing strength and hand-work to get defenders away from his body, which allows him to hold the point and gobble up tackles. I can’t stress how valuable he is to a Zimmer defense.

Signing (MLB) Jasper Brinkley, (CB) Derek Cox, (DE) Corey Wootton, and (OG) Vladimir Ducasse – All of these guys were signed to 1-year “prove-it” deals. All necessary cheap adds that any rebuilding team needs, especially ones that are undergoing scheme changes. Derek Cox was a huge disappointment after signing a big contract, but with Zimmer he could step up again. Also, Wootton is a perfect Zimmer 4-Technique DE, the Vikings stole this injury-prone but talented defender from the rival Bears. Brinkley and Ducasse are very unspectacular but sufficient to gain playing time.

Draft Outlook

If I was a betting man, I would guess that GM Rick Spielman will be making a handful of trades (Duh, right). That said I find it absolutely impossible to guess what he will do. But to start somewhere, I will evaluate the current roster (See “Vikings Team Needs” below). I feel that Spielman has done a decent job sewing up the defensive line, which is far-and-away the biggest requirement for Zimmer. One thing that I would encourage Zimmer to do, is press Spielman to re-evaluate Sharrif Floyd. Floyd is way too reliant on his quickness. His short arms, lack of strength, and poor hand-work makes him an extremely unreliable option at the important 3-Technique spot for Zimmer.

Quarterback, Cornerback, and all Linebacker positions are areas that need to be emphasized during the draft process. If the Vikings do draft a QB, I would not advise against drafting one where they currently sit in the first round. This year’s QBs might be satisfactory picks at #8 in most drafts, but not this year. The cost-benefit of passing on one of the guys I list below, and selecting a (QB) Teddy Bridgewater or (QB) Blake Bortles is extremely unwise. The best player available at that spot might not be a position of need, such as offensive tackle or wide receiver, but would be light-years better than a QB.

Vikings Team Needs:

1.       Offensive Guard

2.       Quarterback

3.       Cornerback

4.       Outside Linebacker

5.       Middle Linebacker

6.       Defensive Tackle

7.       Safety

8.       Running Back

·         Round 1 - #8 Overall – Trading down is option #1. Options are not awesome need/fit/values.

o    CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State

§  Having back-to-back CBs 1^st round CBs is extremely unlikely, and frankly unheard of. But unless the Vikings think that Rhodes (maybe Cox or Josh Robinson) on the outside and Munnerlyn inside, can keep NFC North WRs at bay, this isn’t a bad option.

o   CB | Kyle Fuller| Virginia Tech

§  Same as above. But let's re-emphasize how terrible the receiving corps of the Packers, Bears, and Lions are. Errr, by terrible I mean stupid awesome.

o    DT | Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh

§  Jerks asked me if a Floyd/Donald pairing would work, my answer was no. But a Joseph/Donald duo is immensely better than Joseph/Floyd.

·         Round 2 - #40 Overall – A ton of options, in a very deep field. (More than what’s listed here)

o   OG | Xavier Su’a-Filo | UCLA

o   OG | Dakota Dozier | Furman

o   OG | David Yankey | Stanford

o   QB | Zach Mettenberger | LSU

o   CB | Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State

o   CB |Bradley Roby |Ohio State

o   DT |Dominique Easley | Florida

o   S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville

o   S | Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois

·         Round 3 - #72 Overall – It’s odd but, I don’t like the options here… hopefully someone slides.

o   OG | Gabe Jackson | Mississippi State

o   RB | Carlos Hyde | Ohio State

o   RB | Bishop Sankey | Washington State

o   RB | Devonta Freeman | Florida State

Wishful Thinking: Who does Gow want?

·         #8 – CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State

·         #40 – DT | Dominique Easley | Florida

·         #72 – OG | Gabe Jackson | Mississippi State

Cleveland Browns – An eye towards the draft

The Front Office

When Ray Farmer was added to the front office, to join then President Joe Banner and General Manager Michael Lombardi, I thought it was a smart but unusual hire. I tend to keep my eye open for the next up-and-coming elite personnel decision makers in the league, and on that very short list was Ray Farmer. Why he came to Cleveland to be 3^rd fiddle, I will never know. So when owner Jimmy Haslam fired Banner & Lombardi, advancing Farmer to GM, I was pretty confident that he would succeed.

In only a few months, Ray Farmer has made truly elite GM decisions. Even though most GMs hire their own head coach (Mike Pettine), Farmer has done a masterful job aligning to Pettine’s philosophy. The specifics of this alignment will be identified later. Farmer then selected Kyle Shannahan to pull the strings on the offensive side of the ball. The former part of “Shannahan & Son” is eager to step out of his father’s shadow, much like Pettine to Rex Ryan. This hunger to prove themselves, is a common theme amongst the entire organization.

Offseason Moves… To Date

Out with (OC) Norv Turner and in with (OC) Kyle Shannahan - Both gentlemen have distinctively identifiable offensive schemes that they are associated to. But luckily there are similarities between the schemes and there are good personnel fits for this transition.

Out with (DC) Ray Horton and in with (HC) Mike Pettine - Horton was an extremely over-hyped hire, which honestly I bought into. Horton had an uber aggressive 3-4 scheme that lacked sophistication and flexibility. Mike Pettine record is a bit of a hybrid scheme, which has a proven track record.

Cutting (Slot WR) Davone Bess and signing (Slot WR) Andrew Hawkins – The previous regime gave up a draft choice and signed Bess to a hefty contract. They expected him to provide consistent hands and leadership to a young receiving corp. Unfortunately, he was legally defined as mentally ill and dropped everything in sight. Hawkins, though undersized, is an extremely explosive catch-and-run slot WR. The fact that the Browns signed the restricted free agent away from the rival Bengals (without swapping compensation) is a plus.

Signing (ILB) Karlos Dansby Letting and letting (ILB) D’Qwell Jackson walk – Jackson was a locker-room leader from the re-birth of the franchise. He was an exceptional Mike Backer in the 4-3, but struggled when he was unprotected in an odd man front. Because Pettine expects to feature more of the 3-4 hybrid, Jackson and his over-paid ass had to go. In comes Dansby, off a MVP-like year at Arizona. His knack for making splash plays should remain a constant, as the Browns down-linemen are better than the Cardinals.

Signing (SS) Donte Whitner and letting (SS) T.J. Ward walk – I was a big fan of Ward and his aggressive imposing style, so seeing him go was a hard pill to swallow. But on the flip side, Ward was okay (not great) at coverage and his style of play was taking its toll on his body. What Ward lacked in coverage, Whitner excels. Whitner is also a savvy vet that picks and chooses when to lay the lumber. He also had a few years playing in Buffalo under Pettine’s defense. Also, Pettine’s necessity to have interchangeable safeties makes Whitner a far superior fit.

Cutting (QBs) Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell – Keeping this one short. They sucked.

Signing (TE) Jim Dray – An under the radar add, he was a stud “in-line” (Y) Tight End last year in Arizona.

Signing (RB) Ben Tate – Everyone under the sun associated the Tate-to-Browns marriage since Trent Richardson was traded last year. It was only re-emphasized when Kyle Shannahan was hired to install his zone-blocking scheme. Sure Tate has been an elite backup RB to Arian Foster, but he offers an injury history that is just as infamous. Farmer and the Browns made out like bandits, signing Tate to the ultimate prove-it contract. An insanely low-risk/high-reward agreement, with little guaranteed money and a per game bonus structure.

Draft Outlook

I keep on referring to the new NFL calendar and how it shakes things up for decision makers. This new format puts an increased premium on exceptional salary cap management to sign scheme-fit quality free agents. With the elongated draft process (and free agency period) is a time-frame that exceptional GMs should be positioning themselves to draft the best player available (BPA). It goes without saying that when a team drafts the BPA, it helps when that selection also fits a position need.

Proper evaluation of draft prospects, far enough up stream has to occur to make smart free agent additions. Over-evaluating  and over-paying free agents, leads to over-drafting positions of need. This ripple effect of poor decisions, are commonplace for many organizations. I am going to sound like a homer, but Farmer’s offseason moves have positioned the Browns rather well. The reason is that value and need align well at each draft pick. Take a look at the logical options who should be around when it is time to turn in their card.

Browns Team Needs:

1.       Cornerback

2.       Offensive Guard

3.       Quarterback

4.       Inside Linebacker

5.       Safety

6.       Offensive Tackle

7.       Wide Receiver

8.       Running Back

·         Round 1 - #4 Overall – Three exceptional options.

o    CB | Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State

§  Buster Skrine and Leon McFadden lack the size and ability to play on the outside opposite Joe Haden. The Browns need an upgrade and Gilbert fills the most pressing team need. He would also add leverage to Haden extension talks.

o   OT | Greg Robinson | Auburn

§  Even though the Browns have Joe Thomas at LT, Robinson offers the best physical tools and attributes to come along at OT in a while. His addition would allow Mitchell Schwartz to shift to OG, answering the 2^nd biggest need.

o    WR | Sammy Watkins | Clemson

§  Watkins is a more physical Percy Harvin-like skill set. (Near) elite yes, but another catch-and-run WR doesn’t add diversity to the offense.  If he is the pick, Shannahan will have to work on improved route-trees for Gordon and Hawkins.

·         Round 1 - #26 Overall – Five positions of need with a ton of options.

o   CB | Phillip Gaines | Rice

o   QB | Derek Carr | Fresno State

o   QB | Blake Bortles | Central Florida

o   ILB | C.J. Mosley | Alabama

o   ILB | Ryan Shazier | Ohio State

o   S | Haha Clinton-Dix | Alabama

o   WR | Marquise Lee | USC

o   WR | Jordan Matthews | Vanderbilt

·         Round 2 - #35 Overall – Three positions make the most value/need sense.

o   OG | Brandon Thomas | Clemson

o   OG | Xavier Su’a-Filo | UCLA

o   S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville

o   S | Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois

o   WR | Odell Beckham | LSU

o   WR | Donte Moncrief | Mississippi

Wishful Thinking: Who does Gow want?

·         #4 – OT | Greg Robinson | Auburn

·         #26 – QB | Derek Carr | Fresno State

·         #35 – S | Calvin Pryor | Louisville

NCAA bracket

Renewed the bracket group from last year on Yahoo.  Below is the link. Password is "Pater".

https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/group/198974

Sobering up from (some of my) drunk opinions

For the upcoming draft, here is my Big Board. This analysis is a high-level perspective based on the following: [1] Each players physical ability; [2] How transferable their skills; and [3] Most importantly... how NFL personnel decision makers (usually) would view prospects that have similar attributes and characteristics.

Also as best I can (I repeat, as best I can), I have pulled out areas where my opinions vary greatly from other Big Boards you have seen. This does not mean I am caving in on all of my opinions. The purpose of this post was to put a "close to a real-life" Big Board out there. Obviously, each team will have a very different board, as scheme and need-fit will always play a factor. The comments below on position or scheme are for "best fits". This can be due to their individual strengths or limitations, but either way for value to be maximized, this is the type of role I think they would have to play in. In future posts, I'll dive into what I believe the Vikings and Browns Big Board will be in a later post.

Of note: The top 25 on here are my 1st Round values, #26 to #34 are my fringe 1st Rounders, rest are 2nd Round values.

Opinions and questions are more than welcome. Enjoy.

1. Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina | 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB
2. Greg Robinson | Auburn | LT or RT, Man or Zone Blocking Scheme (ZBS)
3. Aaron Donald | Pittsburgh | 4-3 3-Technique DT
4. Sammy Watkins | Clemson | Flanker (FL) or Slot WR
5. Justin Gilbert | Oklahoma State | Man or Press CB
6. Jake Matthews | Texas A&M | LT, Man or ZBS
7. Kahlil Mack | Buffalo | 3-4 OLB, 3-4 ILB
8. Mike Evans | Texas A&M | Split End (SE) WR, Vertical Offense
9. Taylor Lewan | Michigan | LT or RT, Man or ZBS
10. Brandin Cooks | Oregion State | FL or Slot WR, West Coast Offense (WCO)
11. Dee Ford | Auburn | 3-4 OLB, 4-3 7or9-Technique, Attacking D
12. Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville | Spread Offense
13. Zach Martin | Notre Dame | OG or OT, Man or ZBS
14. Marquis Lee | USC | Possession FL WR
15. Jordan Matthews | Vanderbilt | SE or FL WR
16. Calvin Pryor | Louisville | SS or FS, Physical D
17. Eric Ebron | North Carolina | Move TE, Pass-first Offense
18. Blake Bortles | Central Florida | Conservative Play-Action Offense
19. HaHa Clinton-Dix | Alabama | FS, Cover 2 Defense
20. Ra'Shede Hageman | Minnesota | 3-4 DE, 4-3 Under 5-Technique DE
21. Ryan Shazier | Ohio State | 4-3 OLB, 3-4 ILB
22. Odell Beckham | LSU | FL WR, Vertical Offense
23. Kyle Fuller | Virginia Tech | Man or Press CB
24. CJ Mosley | Alabama | 3-4 ILB, 4-3 Mike LB
25. Xavier Su'a-Filo | UCLA | OG Man or ZBS
26. Derek Carr | Fresno State | WCO
27. Brandon Thomas | Clemson | OG or OT, Man Blocking
28. Scott Crichton | Oregon State | 4-3 DE
29. Kevin Norwood | Alabama | FL WR
30. Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | QB, Spread Read-Option Offense
31. Darqueze Dennard | Michigan State | Press CB
32. Anthony Barr | UCLA | 3-4 OLB, 4-3 OLB, Attacking D
33. Phillip Gaines | Rice | Man or Press CB
34. Morgan Moses | Virginia | LT or RT, Man Blocking
35. Jimmy Ward | Northern Illinois | FS or SS
36. Kelvin Benjamin | Florida State | SE WR, Run-first Offense
37. Kony Ealy | Missouri | 4-3 DE 
38. Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Washington | In-line TE, Run-first or WCO
39. Dominique Easley | Florida | 4-3 3-Technique DT
40. Allen Robinson | Penn State | Possession WR, WCO
41. Dakota Dozier | Furman | OG, Man or ZBS
42. Troy Niklas | Notre Dame | In-line TE, Run-first or WCO
43. David Yankey | Stanford | OG, Man Blocking, Run-first Offense
44. Carl Bradford | Arizona State | 3-4 OLB or 3-4 ILB
45. Louis Nix | Notre Dame | 3-4 NT or 4-3 1-Technique DT
46. Marcus Roberson | Florida | Man or Press CB
47. Jordan Tripp | Montana | 3-4 OLB, 3-4 ILB, 4-3 OLB
48. Bradley Roby | Ohio State | Man or Zone CB
49. Marcus Martin | USC | C, Man or ZBS
50. Jared Abbrederis | Wisconsin | FL WR

Start of Free Agency

The post combine, pre-free agency, period has been pretty interesting. This is the second year that the NFL has instituted a three-day “legal tampering” period, which allows perspective teams to openly negotiate with soon-to-be free agents. This timeframe started Saturday, with the start of Free Agency beginning Tuesday.

This relatively new rule change and new offseason schedule has put an emphasis on quickly getting salary cap finances in order. Thus, teams are frantically cutting and restructuring unproductive contracts. Teams like the Cowboys (-$16M) and the Steelers (-$6M) are the only ones with a negative salary cap space and obviously have more work to do. While the Raiders, Browns, and Jaguars all have over $55M in cap space. Of note, the Vikings are in the upper third of teams with +$35M.

So what does this mean for the Vikings?

GM Rick Speilman has been pretty active. Cutting (MLB) Erin Henderson, (TE) John Carlson, and (DT) Letroy Guion. While resigning (QB) Matt Cassel and (CB/KR) Marcus Sherels. No doubt all of these moves were to support the new OC Norv Turner and new defensive-minded HC Mike Zimmer. With the healthy cap space and Adrian Peterson gaining some wear and tear on his treads, the WIN NOW mentality is more likely than not. After all, Speilman fired Leslie Frazier and brought in his own guys. So a season at the bottom of the NFC North, though likely, it is not acceptable.

Free Agency Outlook: Everything is focused on the defensive side, as need seems more immediate.

·         The Vikings are extremely fortunate that this year’s UFA crop of DEs have elite young classic 4-3 edge rushers that can also hold up at the POA. I would be shocked if one of these guys did not get signed by the Vikings.

o   Michael Bennett, 6’4”, 274, 28 years old (Elite)

o   Michael Johnson, 6’7”, 270, 27 years old (Great)

o   Lamar Houston, 6’3”, 300, 26 years old (Great)

o   Robert Ayers, 6’3”, 274, 28 years old (Good)

o   Matt Shaughnessy, 6’5” 285, 27 years old (Good)

·         Also, not a banner singing, but please bring Everson Griffen back.

·         Defensive Tackle is another position I would try to address in FA versus the Draft. From what I see, I think that there is a need for a 1-Technique DT. This calls a +300 lbs power defender that can not only hold up at the POA, but also collapse the pocket into the QB. Linval Joseph and Jason Hatcher are the best 1T, but any zero technique NT is an acceptable stop gap.

·         If Speilman is looking for a cheap 3T to rotate with Sharriff Floyd, look no further than Clinton McDonald. Back in August, McDonald was traded from the Bengals to Seattle. During training camp McDonald was revered by Zimmer.

·         I’m a little surprised that Chris Cook wasn’t resigned (yet). Sure he has under-achieved his draft status, but Zimmer’s track record making DBs successful pros is well known. Cook’s youth, size, speed, and athletic ability could equate to Zimmer’s best DB product in recent memory. I do not expect him to last long in FA. If the Vikings fail to sign him, they should make a run at a mid-tier CB like Sam Shields, Walter Thurmond, Tarell Brown, Corey Graham, or Terrell Thomas.

Rankings of the rest

In this edition, I take a stab at the hardest position to project into the NFL (Running Backs). As the casual fan now knows, RBs are devalued in today’s NFL game. Over the years, rules have changed to make it difficult for defenders to impose their physical bravado, like they use to do in years prior. This has led to a natural shift in focus to the vertical passing game. The days of the feature back, toting the ball 20 plus times a game, with the aim of control the clock and wear down the defense is no longer the primary offensive philosophy.

Positive or negative, this change is probably good for draft evaluators and their job security. Quarterbacks aside, highly drafted RBs are about as risky of a draft decision as you can make. Many personnel evaluators, nowadays, say that you can find quality RBs in the later rounds. This statement is absolutely correct. Aside from the de-emphasis of the running game, it is near impossible to project a draftee as an NFL RB.

Watching collegiate game tape of a dominant running back can be misleading in so many ways. Is the guy really good, or did he have a dominant offensive line. Or maybe he played in a misdirection running scheme that tried to fool defenders, or possibly lined up against some god awful defenses. So aside from sifting through questionable game tape, they have to project how decisive the RB would be against larger defenders, smaller holes, and almost no time to hesitate. Then there is the absolute necessity, for RBs to be able to pass protect or find a spot on the bench. So knowing and understanding NFL protection schemes, identifying the proper defender, and having the technique and stoutness to do so… are almost alien concepts to college RBs.

With that, let me unveil my rankings…

Running Backs

1.       Carlos Hyde [Ohio State] – Powerful one-cut downhill runner, who should excel in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Negatives: His style could lead to injuries, and he is an idiot off the field.

2.       Jerick McKinnon [Georgia Southern] – I’m not concerned about the small school tag. Because he is fast, quick, explosive, and he got game. Though his 8 5/8 hands could lead to fumbles.

3.       Bishop Sankey [Washington] – 5’9” with choppy steps and is being compared to Gio Benard. Not sure though, Sankey is stronger and a better runner… but lacks Benard’s hands and acceleration.

4.       Devonta Freeman [Florida State] – 5’8” is a gift and a curse. He might not hold up in the NFL, but defenders lose track of him, and he sure can get into-and-out-of an opening (quickly).

5.       Henry Josey [Missouri] – Josey has durability concerns coming off of one of the worst knee injuries ever seen (No joke). But the kid is a home run hitter and has an amazing work ethic.

Offensive Guards

1.       Zach Martin [Notre Dame] – Height and arm length are short of what a prototypical tackle would need. Regardless, this barrel chested gamer is a Pro Bowl OG in a zone blocking scheme.

2.       Dakota Dozier [Furman] –Admittedly I’m riding the hype train on this one. Aside from the coolest name, he dominated the E/W Shrine Game while being was crazy agile and smooth in Indy.

3.       Xavier Su’a-Filo [UCLA] – Athletic and well-rounded, he dominated with more technique than you would expect from a college lineman. One criticism would be his build could use gym work.

4.       Brandon Thomas [Clemson] - Another potential offenseive tackle, with long arms, but on the short side. Guys like this are much better suited inside, as they can be a liability on the outside.

5.       David Yankey [Stanford] – I think this guy could be a solid pro. He is tall, solid length, and a typical OL technician out of Stanford. But got overwhelmed against Michigan State at the Rose Bowl.

6.       Gabe Jackson [Mississippi State] – A classic road-grader that belongs in a power run game. But without refinement in pass protection he could be a project, which could limit his suitors.

Centers

1.       Weston Richburg [Colorado State] – I have no idea. I hear good things. But seriously, he had a solid combine and showed enough athleticism to play in a zone blocking scheme.

2.       Marcus Martin [USC] – Abnormally long arms for a center, and a NFL-ready frame, evaluators will likely think they can make a future Pro Bowler out of this former highly recruited lineman.

Defensive Tackles

1.       Aaron Donald [Pittsburgh] – Anyone who says there was a more impressive combine performance than this guy is lying. Classic 3-Technique that has all the tools to be a great one.

2.       Dominique Easley [Florida] – Pre 2013 ACL tear, he would have given Aaron Donald a running for top 3T DT in this draft. If he falls to the 2^nd Rd, he will be an extreme value pick.

3.       Louis Nix [Notre Dame] – Because of his lack of agility and ability to collapse the pocket, Nix is likely isolated to a zero technique nose tackle in a 3-4. Classic fat guy that you can’t move.

4.       Timmy Jernigan [Florida State] – Holy Draft Day slide Batman! A la Sharriff Floyd. Short armed 1T DTs that get by in college with strength, and lack explosiveness shouldn’t be 1^st Rounders.

5.       Caraun Reid [Princeton] – Any Ivy Leaguer is definitely a sleeper in any draft process. That said, small school draftees need to capitalize on the Combine and Senior Bowl like this guy.

Cornerbacks

1.       Justin Gilbert [Oklahoma State] – As far as CBs go, he is the prettiest girl at the dance. Prototypical size, exceptional length, speed, ability to high-point the ball, smooth hip turnover. He good.

2.       Phillip Gaines [Rice] – Sure he played against subpar competition, but was a true shutdown corner. Will it transfer to the NFL? Maybe. His good combine supports his good game tape.

3.       Kyle Fuller [Virginia Tech] – Damn good cover corner, with prototypical size, speed, and length. Measurables are definitely there, tackles well, but knock would be his lack of splash plays.

4.       Darquenze Dennard [Michigan State] – I though the NFL network made too many excuses for Dennard’s poor combine performance. Press corner or not, he lacks speed and fluidity.

5.       Marcus Roberson [Florida] – Big upside natural man cover corner, extremely instinctive, and can take the other teams #1 on. Downside = Slow 40, injury prone and an off the field liability.