Power Rankings: Week 6

Gents,

Whitebread's post about the Gophers mentioned/linked to a bunch of advanced stats, which is so Cracker. "Hey look I read all these advanced stats stuff because I'm smart. I probably can explain only a fraction of these numbers to you, but... HEY LOOK they say the Gophers are good!"

I keed, Whitey. I'm sure you're a regular reader of this stuff and jerk off to IsoPPP in your spare time.

But his post was a good reminder for me to post our own league stats. A brief review, even though everyone should know the drill:

I began doing these about 7-8 years ago - a rough season when I felt like every team I played had their best week against me - to determine when the luck of scheduling was removed, who was the best team.

I started tracking the scores each week to determine how we all fared in comparison with each other. Points Scored and Points Against can give you some idea of this info, but can be skewed by outlier weeks.

TOTAL POINTS SCORED

TOTAL POINTS AGAINST

There should be nothing surprising about those two tables - they are simply the data. Points Scored and Points Against for each team by week, summed and sorted. That's it.

The only thing above that might be interesting is where the Points/Loser Bonus $ has been allocated thus far. Bill and I collectively have earned 2/3 of the Bonus $ thus far. Surprisingly, Gow hasn't earned any while having one of the stronger teams.

Let's talk Power Rankings...

These are RANKINGS - they RANK us in comparison with each other for each week. It doesn't matter if the top point scorer got 200 points one week, and the following week's top points scorer only got 100 - for the purposes of ranking against the other teams, they both earn a 1 for their respective weeks.

POWER RANKINGS

Don't act like you're not impressed! I narrowly own the top spot, just barely ahead of both Dallus and Gow. The three of us are all very close, and the two of them have probably been more consistent than my team.

Those last 3 teams all look pretty bad by these numbers. Whitebread has only had one week where he was higher than 7th (and he lost that week thanks to Russell Wilson's MNF heroics). Crabs started off about as bad as you can, and has played ok enough to win 3 in a row while not looking overly impressive. Juan's team is just plain bad, but as we all are aware, it's 100% injury-driven.

The biggest loser when looking at this is Mr. Fredricks. A pretty darn good team but is currently 1-5. Poor Bill.

As you look at these there is a distinct gap between the Top 5 and Bottom 5. And that becomes even more apparent when you look at the All-Play Records:

ALL PLAY RECORD

There isn't even anyone that close to being .500 -- there are 5 good teams and 5 not-so good teams. But Kenni (surprise surprise) and Crabs have lucked their way into a better records, and Bill has just had some of the worst luck.

Let's look at schedules...

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Most probably assumed to see Bill at the top, and he's very close (he also has a 2.6pt edge in Total Points Against). But the owner of the hardest schedule-to-date is yours truly. Aside from the first game, I've played a top half team each week including four Top-3 finishers.

Bill has had a tough schedule, but some of his misfortune is just bad timing and dumb luck. When his team has done well, he's played someone slightly better. When he's had easier competition, he's had down weeks.

Whitebread, you may remember, had one of the most difficult schedules ever last year - thus far, the fantasy gods have not shown him the proper regression.

Gow/Dallus both have very good teams this year, but their records are certainly buttressed by playing mediocre-at-best competion thus far.

If you've read everything to this point, it should be no surprise that Kenni and Crabs have had the easiest schedules.

Who have I not mentioned at all yet? Crapswell and Titwarmer. There isn't that much to say about each... This article focuses more on outliers and regression candidates - both of them are more just middle players.  Ned's got an above-average team and should probably have a better record, but his schedule has been a little tougher. Andy probably deserves his 2-4 record.

So there you go. First batch of Power Rankings for 2014. What else did you find interesting? Care to refute anything I've said? Let me hear it in the comments.

Gopher Update: Division Leaders

Basic statistics:

Advanced statistics and analysis of the game: Study Hall

But all you need to know is this: Trailing 10-17 in the 4th quarter, Northwestern drove the ball 97 yards to tie the game.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they had to kick off after scoring.

Sophomore CB, and former GA HS state champion in the hurdles, Jalen Myrick returns it 103 yards for the game winner.

What does it all mean?
The Gophers move to 5-1 (2-0) and along with Iowa lead the Big Ten West standings.

At least one national statistician (blogger) has Minnesota as a slight favorite to win the West: Updated B1G Projections

What lies ahead:

Minnesota is a 12.5 point favorite and -470 on the moneyline (83%) in Vegas.  The statistician I quoted earlier projects Minnesota as a winner 89% of the time so by either measure this is a very winnable game.  As a lifelong Gopher fan these are the games that scare me the most.  Purdue has actually been playing much better since switching to a more mobile QB a couple games ago.

The other Big Ten games we care about are Iowa @ Maryland -5 and Nebraska @ Northwestern +7.  Nebraska @ Northwestern is probably worth watching on Saturday night.  Their three previous meetings have all been one score games that were decided late including this Hail Mary last year.  Our rooting interests are Maryland (as always, anti-Iowa) and Northwestern although both are competitors for the division.

From Gophersports:

A win on Saturday would give Minnesota a 6-1 record to start the season and it would also make it bowl eligible. The last time the Gophers started the season 6-1 was 2008 (also last time they were bowl eligible after seven games), when they began the year 7-1. More importantly a win would give the Gophers a 3-0 record in Big Ten play. The last time the Gophers started 3-0 in the Big Ten was 1990. That year, Minnesota beat Purdue, Northwestern and Indiana to start league play. Prior to 1990, Minnesota’s best Big Ten start came in 1967, when the Gophers topped Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa en route to a 4-0 record in the league. Purdue handed the Gophers their first and only Big Ten loss (finished year 6-1 in B1G) in 1967 (41-12 home win).

Monday Update: The Nonsense You Came For

Gentlemen,

That last post gave me flashbacks to chapter meeting. I felt Deno-ish just typing it.

Let's make with the fun stuff, that's why you're here.

Team Names

A great showing from everyone last week, bravo all around. Most everyone was even able to change their name by the Thursday game, which is great.

I'm curious... did Juan get some details about Sowers' fraud? If so, I'd love to hear.

This week we're going to try to be all young and cool again, with a favorite topic of the past - Favorite Guilty Pleasure Song (from the past year). Let's talk ground rules here:

1. Can't be a good song. If you're not sure if it's a good song or a bad song, it's probably not bad enough. You know when a song is bad.
2. Must have had regular radio play on KDWB. We're not picking some shit that is limited release and you can only hear on The Current. In fact, that already breaks Rule #1. No, this has to be a popular song (over)distributed to the masses.
• Country is crossing over into the pop realm these days, so I would consider a "country" song, as long as it's still terrible.
3. Must have been released in the last year... or so. Not a hard and fast rule, but don't go back too far. There's been plenty of bad music in the last year.
4. You have to at least kind of like the song. 

Next week, I'll post a link to the video of each and we'll actually have a vote. The reaction you're looking for from your fellow leaguemates is "Oh yeah I actually like that song..."

My choice may surprise some of you, considering my well-documented hatred: TIMBER.

Pitbull, Ke$ha, and donkeys. Good luck topping that.

The Games

Rod Jerks (156.18) vs. Ned Titwarmer (133.60)

• Ned had two guys going in that CIN-CAR game (Gio, Sanu). Both performed well and got probably another 10 points in OT. I absolutely hate when guys I'm playing against go into OT. It feels like they're stealing points. TACKLE SOMEBODY KUECHLY.
• Andre Williams was the most expensive FAAB bid thus far ($45) and did not live up to the billing last night (6.3pts). 
• Still to play: Nobody.

This one is over. Ned was 3-2 at one point last week, yet will fall to 2-4 tomorrow.

NooShoo Gow (152.34) vs. Bill Fredricks (142.88)

• TY Hilton was on Bill's bench (32.3). Bill probably wishes he could have started him.
• Going into last night, Gow was up about 15 with McCoy (19.4) going. Meanwhile Bill started Foles (14.92), Maclin (2.1), Donnell (0.6), and Parkey (10). Bill was the heavy favorite, but ultimately his pass catchers laid a huge egg.
• Still to play: Nobody.

Gow climbs to 5-1 while Bill will fall alone into last place at 1-5 (which is crazy) because...

Marcus Whitebread (117.52) vs. Andy Crapswell (102.98)

• Andy had 3 players score less than 4 points, including a QB (Teddy...ugh).
• Cracker meanwhile had his own crappy QB (Eli - 6.34) but was solid enough everywhere else
• Still to play:
• Whitebread: Gore

Whitebread climbs out of the basement to 2-4, which will tie him Andy.

Juan Coconuts (114.44) vs. Dick Dallus (110.00)

• Juan lost another player to injury (Ridley). Philosophical question: does one ever truly "lose" Stevan Ridley or are you simply freed of him?
• The two defenses in this one combined for -1. 
• Still to play:
• Dallus: Kaepernick

Dallus is a 94% favorite to win. Barring some injury to Kaep, Dallus will move to 5-1 although he'll drop to 2nd because Gow should likely take him over in points.

Kenni Hana (119.62) vs. Ike Crabs (97.74)

• Kenni's RBs (Spiller, Doug Martin) net him less than 7 points combined. This is a team currently tied for 1st. 
• Crabs could have put this completely in doubt last night with both Cruz and Randle going against Philly, who was the worst pass defense in the league. Instead, the two players got him less than 10 combined and Cruz is out for the year. Oof.
• Still to play:
• Crabs: Vernon Davis, Phil Dawson, SF Def

Crabs is a 53% favorite to win, so this is really a coin flip. If Crabs can pull it out, he'll have climbed to 3-3 after starting out 0-3. If Kenni wins, he'll stay tied for 1st at 5-1. 

Tonight

Let's stick with Sensors another week. There's a lot less kids and guys studying in cardigans.

Gladly.

See you tonight, boys.

Monday Update: What'sApp

Gentlemen,

Andy has a post about this already, but I'm going to offer my rebuttal and then hopefully we can decide if we're doing this once and for all.

Since this season has begun, we've been doing an awful lot of group texting, mostly during the Sunday games. Personally, I love this. It makes me wish we had long ago (before wives and kids started messing everything up) decided to get together on Sundays to watch all the games together. I love MNF, but the reality is most fantasy match ups are determined during the Sunday games.

Our text group has become what I wanted the Gameday Threads on the blog to be. Lots of updates from each other, plenty of smack talk, discussion about the Vikings game, and laughing at others' misfortune when their players get hurt.

The Gameday Threads were kind of a thing for about 1.5 seasons, but never really took off. And it was usually only a select few of us who would actually sign on and participate. And I get it... People have other things going on, especially with young kids. Most can't sit with a laptop in front of them for 6 hours, only to chime in once-in-a-while with "Fuck you, Woodhead!" or "EAT A DICK, CRACKER".

But it's awfully easy to text that to someone. And you know they're going to see it.

And that is my own qualm with WhatsApp. I'm worried that by moving the conversation, it's going to become the Gameday Threads: less people, and less frequent...and then it just dies. I want to call Kenni "A Fucking J" and I want to make sure he sees it and laughs maniacally (cause you know he does).

Now... I realize that sometimes we can get carried away texting each other. And if it's late at night or during work, that can be an issue for some people*. And maybe we just need to be mindful of that, in combination with other using the Do Not Disturb function of their phones.

*I personally loathe my job so I welcome any and all distractions during the workday.

This is my opinion. However, my take may not be representative of the masses, so I'm open to change if everyone else is. I just want to make sure we don't move the conversation to a place where nobody will go.

So what does the group want to do?

Monday Update: Game-Time Waivers

Gentlemen,

Different format today. There's a couple outstanding topics to discuss from the past week, so I'm going to recap them all in separate posts here.

Game-Time Waivers

Ned pointed this out in an earlier blog post... Yes, last week I played within the rules dropped a couple players who had already played that were on my bench to pick up players that had not yet played.

Per Yahoo, when you click on Help > Commish Tools > Game-Time Waivers:

I was not the first person to take advantage of this rule, as Gow picked up Geno Smith by dropping Dennis Pitta on Monday, Sept 22. Pitta had already played, and I believe that was the weekend he got injured. Gow needed a QB for the next weekend and picked up Geno.

Similar to Ned, I was not aware that this was the rule. I actually looked up the page linked above to be sure that I had the settings correct, which I do. This isn't something I can specifically adjust - it's how Yahoo has it set up.

This even led me to texting Gow:

I know Ned is saying I did nothing wrong, but he's doing so with sort of a wink-and-nudge inferring the there's somehow some sort of collusion here. I do personally take offense to any sort of collusion inference. I didn't realize this was the way the rules were written until Gow made his move, but I didn't fault Gow for taking advantage. I also don't think I should be at fault because I noticed the move Gow made, when everyone else apparently didn't.

I don't think it's my responsibility to ensure everyone understands every single nook-and-cranny of every single rule. For example, did you know bye-week players go on Waivers as of the start of the the MNF game? I didn't either, but only learned of it by reading the note above. Do the research (or don't) but don't complain when others play by the rules to their advantage. I even checked with Yahoo and apparently it's always been this way. Shame on all of us for just now learning.

Regardless of me getting defensive... what do we do now? As far as I can tell, there are only two options:

1. We play out the rest of the season with the rules as they exist and are written, and now everyone is fully aware of them. Drop bench players all you want. 
2. We all agree that players who have played cannot be dropped until waivers process on Tues night. Any players that have been picked up via this rule thus far haven't been impactful, so they don't really matter.

To be honest, I don't even know what we need to achieve option #2 as we've never done a rule change mid-season. During the offseason, I try to stick to a league majority for major changes... but mid-season (to me) needs to be a higher threshold, possibly unanimous. 

Somewhat-related note: I'll work to write a League Constitution in the offseason to ensure we have our league rules all documented. That said, one of the notes will say something like "When the rule isn't specified, we will default to Yahoo rules." So even if we had one today, we'd still be in this situation. 

Without a League Constitution and no precedent for midseason changes, I'm much more in favor of Option #1. We can deal with this in the offseason if people truly would like to change this policy.

That's my 2 cents, but I'd love to hear from all of you. 

What's up Whatapp

For those of you who were not at the last MNF, I briefly proposed the idea of moving our precious chats to a cell phone app called “WhatsApp”. For those of you who don’t know what this is, it’s a web based group chat service (which is free) it has a few more options than regular group texts but most of all you can set up WhatsApp to be less intrusive on your iPhone (or in the case of Crabs, his Motorola Sidekick) than to be getting 27 texts, each other which you’re checking to make sure it’s not important. It’s good enough that Facebook bought it for 16 billion dollars a year ago.  I will be sending you each a link via text inviting you to get WhatsApp. Once you download it, I’ll create a group and invite you…you join it and boom. No more complaining about irrelevant texts. If people don’t join, well I tried…let the BOTT Monday night meeting discussion begin on how this will negatively impact the chapter or some shit like that…

http://www.whatsapp.com/

Controversy is a Brewing....

This past Monday night, Noo Shoo alerted us to some interesting dealings by our dear commish. While fully within the league settings and "legal", I still feel the need to alert the masses. Noo Shoo noticed a loophole that allows you to drop bench players at any time even after their games have been played. Ever looking for a competetive advantage, Rod noticed this and used it to his full benefit (no results, but could have) this past weekend. 

Here's a recap:






Basically, he picked up Darrin Reaves for the Sun AM game. Then after Reaves' game in which he played poorly (and got injured), he was dropped for a Sunday night player - James White. After the Sun night game, with there being no Patriot RB injuries or a breakout game from White, he was then dropped for Turbin who played in the Monday night game.

Personally, I didn't think you could drop a player once they had played in their game. However, as we have learned, you can drop them at anytime - even if their game is over - as long as they were on your bench. This can lead to "Handcuff hoarding" or "Handcuff Roulette". Basically, a scenario where people will drop a dropable player in hopes to land a stud by revolving backups into their bench. The idea being that you are hoping you can grab a backup player in case he blows up or becomes the starter for the next week. In theory, you could rotate 4 players into your one bench spot each week via this method. I repeat, with your 1 bench spot, you could add/drop 4 different guys Thurs-Mon.

First and foremost, I wanted everyone to know that this can happen and it's well within the league rules. So what does this mean? Well, it's up to us to decide. I thought the idea of waivers was to avoid the "wild wild west" of free agent pickups. However, some have stated that they like having a little craziness in their lives.

I propose a league vote:
1. Do nothing. It's within the league settings and I'm ok with it.
or
2. make a gentleman's agreement to not add players by dropping players that have already played.


Personally, I was a little peeved that this happened. Mostly, because I wasn't smart enough to notice it or figure it out.  But also because Noo Shoo and Rod knew about it, but didn't tell anyone else. It felt a little too colusiony for my tastes.

Now that everyone knows about it, I'm Ok going either way. It does add a little roster excitement, but also penalizes those that don't sit by the computer all day looking at the roster alerts.