Wednesday SUPER MEGA UPDATE: Back to Reality

Editors Note: First off, sorry the Monday Update is coming out on Wednesday. As I mentioned, it's getting much harder to keep these up each week, but I'm trying to stay committed to you guys.

Second, this is really long. There are lots of different sections and topics to get to here - this is a whole lot more than the standard weekly update. I want lots and lots of comments on this one because, as you will find, I spent a whole lot of time on it. I began work on Sunday night, and literally am finishing here on Wednesday afternoon, while working continuously both Monday and Tuesday nights. 

May I suggest this approach: comment as you read. Don't read everything all at once, and comment on one thing at the end. Read, form an opinion or response, comment, continue on. Repeat. 

I would love to shatter any previous commenting record we had because this is sort of a culmination for the entire season. I likely won't do another one like this for the rest of the year, possibly ever again. This took a lot of time. 

So please... sit back, read, comment, and above all else, enjoy.

Gentlemen,

The end of the FF regular season is a sad day for me, as it should be for everyone in the league. Six of us still are competing in games that don't have the word "Consolation" in front of it, but it's not the same.

The playoffs games rachet up the intensity, the stress-level, and ultimately everyone will be disappointed except for a single person. And usually that person is just the luckiest of the bunch over the course of 3 weeks. As the winner of our league last year, I absolutely believe this to be true.

Gow, and probably Ned, both had better teams than me both throughout the season and even in the playoffs. They unfortunately had to play each other in the first round, with Gow narrowly losing. Both teams would have beaten me had I not been on bye. Then in the semis, Ned had one of his worst weeks of the season, and I advanced to the championship (meanwhile Gow put up almost 150 and would have crushed me).

Then in the Championship, I was playing a team that most agreed had no business being there: Kenny. If I was lucky last year, Kenny was divine. In fact, for the last 6 weeks or so, he was starting the holy one himself, Tim Tebow. And in that championship game, I had to have Rodgers and Jordy score about 60 for me on Sunday night to come back and win, which they did.

My point here isn't to reminisce about how awesome last season was (it was pretty awesome), my point is just to show how ANYONE CAN WIN from this point forward. Luck (not Andrew) will always be a factor in Fantasy Football, but in the playoffs, the game becomes a slightly more informed version of pulltabs. You need to be L-U-C-K-Y these next 3 weeks to even have a chance.

It's a sad day. There is no longer a "next week". We don't have 10 guys invested anymore. Team names will likely stay stagnant, and so will possibly, some rosters. It's the beginning of the end... and for many of you, it's already just The End.

Yes, I realize that when I say ANYONE CAN WIN, I'm referring to the 6 people in the top bracket. There are four of you that are now competing in a make-believe tournament that means absolutely nothing. It's competition for the sake of competition. We play a make-believe game, but the Consolation tournament is truly imaginary. There is nothing to be won or lost, except for the pride in knowing that you were slightly luckier than another shitty team over the last few weeks.

It's a sad day for them, and again, for all of us. We lose four of our brethren today, and we won't see them again until August. So, before we get into everything else, let's take a moment to pay our respects to the four assholes who either crashed and burned this year, or just really didn't try that hard.

Consolation Team Obituaries

Kenny Hana

• Kenny took an interesting approach into the draft, whether or not it was intended. He spent $51 on Brady, but then didn't spend more than $20 on any player other than Mike Wallace ($25).
• His biggest steal was easily the Bears Defense ($2). In fact, for the first half of the season, they were almost single-handedly winning him games. When you are consistently getting 20-30 pts from your defense, that's a huge advantage over any team.
• But as we all know, his biggest mistake was how he handled the RB position. He invested heavily into low-end/backup RB's hoping 1-2 of them would pop: Michael Bush ($13), Ben Tate ($10), Gerhart ($4), Roy Helu ($6), Reggie Bush ($9). Michael Bush had an opportunity early on, but couldn't really take advantage and Forte came back earlier than most expected from his (first) injury. His biggest spend at RB was Sproles for ($15)
• He burned $73 in FAAB on Rashad Jennings... He took a shot and he missed. Badly

• A midseason trade with Gow (Jordy/Tate for Torrey Smith/Rudolph) really didn't do anything for either team.
• We'll get to the Power Rankings shortly, but Kenny was actually very strong early on this season. He was a Top-3 point scorer in 6 of the first 9 games. But he trailed off considerably and was a Bottom-2 scorer in 3 of the last 4 weeks, scoring 67, 54, and 47 in those 3 losses.
• After the draft, Yahoo's initial projections had Kenny going 1-12, so if there's anything to take away, it's that he blew away those numbers. 
• Next season, he might want to roster a starting RB coming out of the draft.

Dick Dallus

• Dallus has a very interesting season, but let's review his draft first, which was extremely un-Dallus-like. As a Finance guy, he's typically been more conservative with his bidding (in the years he actually shows up to the draft), but this year he invested heavily in his starting lineup - he spent almost 88% of his budget on his starting QB (Newton), RB's (Lynch, Chris Johnson, Richardson), and WR's (Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith). 
• That strategy proved difficult early on as Newton, Smith and Johnson all sucked to start the year. That led to him being a Bottom-2 point scorer 5 of the first 7 weeks. 
• The biggest steal Dallus took home from the draft was probably Jason Hanson... he didn't do so well his sleeper list.
• In a bizarre trade, Dallus shed himself of Newton (Gow strikes again), but was only able to take home Flacco, Gates, and GB Defense. Newton has, by the way, been a beast the past 2 weeks.
• While the Power Rankings will show Dallus has no one to blame but himself, he didn't have the best fortune either. Since Week 7 he's lost matchups by 5.7pts, 3.5pts, 1.7, and 1.6. 
• He ends the regular season with $42 in his FAAB budget. Have fun spending that in the Consolation playoffs.
• On the bright side, at least he seemed to play attention this year.

Marcus Whitebread

• After Week 3, Whitey was all alone in 1st place at 3-0. Think about that for a second...
• He went on to lose 8 of his next 9, only to win the final game of the year. Against me, no less. Bastard...
• Whitey's draft had a mix of hits (RG3-$5, Reggie Wayne-$9, Mike Williams-$2) and misses (McCoy-$62, Fitzgerald-$32, Jermichael-$14). Overall, he left the draft with what looked like a good team once Ryan Mathews came back from preseason injury.
• BTW, kudos to him for Mike Williams. NO ONE saw that coming.
• Early on, the big question was what was he going to do with his two stud QB's (RG3 and Ryan). Well, he ended up trading Ryan and Mathews to me for Peyton and MJD. In what looks like such a weird trade now, he got what ended up being the better QB (as his backup) and we swapped stud RB's who have been barely relevant (one for injury, one for sucking ass) since that trade. 
• Yet, somehow since that trade, his team seems like it came off the rails. McCoy's season, which started slow, went in the tank and then he got injured. MJD's been out forever. Fitz absolutely became unstartable, and Whitey always seemed to start the wrong QB.
• And as the Power Rankings will show, he absolutely deserves this fate. He was the worst team in our league this season, and it really wasn't close.

New Titwarmer

• And for all the grief I just gave Whitebread, let's be sure we call this spade a spade as well: Ned's team absolutely sucked.
• Ned invested heavily in WR's in the draft with Roddy ($30), Andre Johnson ($30), DeSean Jackson ($12), and Bowe ($11). 
• This wouldn't look that bad if his starting RB's weren't Steven Jackson ($28) and BenJarvus ($18). Oof. And to back them up, he went with the "upside" of Kevin Smith ($10) and Ryan Williams ($9). 
• And waddya know... he started the season 1-7. Then somehow, with his season on the line already in Week 9, he beat the now #1 seed, Coconuts. Fantasy Football is a funny game.
• He boosted himself with a mid-season trade of Steven Jackson for Ahmad Bradshaw (Gow again), and I'm not sure what his opponent was thinking at the time. But it was a good trade for Ned.
• And in full-on desperation mode at the end of the season, he shipped out both Roddy and Andre for Alfred Morris. That led to him having to start Ryan Broyles and Justin Blackmon last week. In related news, Ed lost that matchup.
• Although Whitebread was dead last with a bullet (in Power Rankings), Ned was no doubt the 2nd-worst team of the year. But as you will also see, he did face the league's hardest schedule, and that was a runaway, as he took on a Top-3 scorer in 8 of the 13 weeks. 
• To put that in a broader context, Ned had THE HARDEST SCHEDULE since I started keeping record of this in 2009. He sucked, no doubt, but the deck was stacked against him more than any other team has faced in at least the past 4 seasons.
• To Ned's credit (and this is sincere and well-deserved), he never complained about his schedule (at least, not to me) and he never quit. His team was eliminated with 2 weeks to go, and he was still fighting to keep himself from ending up in last place all the way to the final MNF. Well done, Ned. 
• Now draft better next season.

The Vikings

Holy Hell, Ponder is awful. If I was wavering before - I'm done now. I'm done with Ponder. I'm sick of his stupid touch passes that get picked. I'm sick of him having to see a guy get open before he starts to throw (that's already too late, asshole). I'm sick of him scrambling out of the pocket, and into the pressure, rather than standing in there and stepping into a throw. I'm sick of hearing about how he has no WR's. Who the hell was RG3 throwing to this whole season while Garcon was out?? 

It makes me sick to think that winning that stupid game on Christmas Eve last year cost us RG3. You remember who won that game????

Joe Webb did. Because Ponder was benched. As he should have been on Sunday.

Put Webb in. Be done with Ponder. Unless we're playing for draft picks at this point. And who really cares? You just know we're ending up with stupid Manti Teo anyway...

Goddammit, we should have beat the Packers in Lambeau. How the fuck do you fuck up the game that fucking badly when AP was running the a fucking madman?

FUCK.

Not to sound like my dad here, but FIRE EVERYONE. 

Did you see any of that idiot Pondar Trying to play football today #TextsFromClark #Pondar #vikings
— Clark (@ClarkWisdom) December 3, 2012

The Gophers

I'm just permanently making this Cracker's home. No one cares what I think about the Gophers, including me.

1. Meineke Car Care Bowl in Houston. Will you be attending?

Whether we're going is TBD.  I'm working on it but it will be an uphill climb to convince the future Mrs.  If we don't attend, the game is on a Friday night so it might be a good chance for a get together.  Just saying.

2. Texas Tech – do you have a scouting report? Of all the potential opponents we could have played, this might be our best chance at a win, yes?

Texas Tech looked good early and then as their schedule got more difficult they faded by losing 4 of their last 5 (with a win over the 1-11 Kansas Jayhawks).  They had wins over #5 West Virginia & #23 TCU that looked impressive at the time but as the season progressed and both teams ended up 7-5 the wins lost their luster.

Despite the Pirate no longer residing on the sideline, Texas Tech still runs the Air Raid offense.  They rank #2 nationally in pass offense and #88 in rushing offense.  The Gophers have struggled more with power running teams than passing offenses.  Like most of the Big 12, Texas Tech gives up a lot of points on defense.  Their defense ranks 93rd nationally giving up an average of 31.8 points per game.  Minnesota's offense ranks 99th nationally scoring only 21.3 point per game. So what is interesting is that we'll see their strength on strength (and I use that term loosely when referring to our defense) and weakness on weakness.

What could possibly go wrong against Texas Tech?

3. What other bowl games intrigue you, aside from the National Championship…?

Aside from the NCAA basketball tournament this is probably my second favorite sports event(s) of the season so I find a lot of bowls people don't care about interesting.  Holiday Bowl: Baylor/UCLA; Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia/Syracuse--this should be a shoot-out; Outback Bowl: South Carolina/Michigan; Chick-Fil-A bowl: LSU/Clemson; Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State/Oregon--3 weeks ago this would have been the BCS Championship

Public Service Announcement: Dallus is organizing a Bowl pick 'em pool. Not sure the $ and/or stipulations to them just yet. 

All I know is I did one of these last year where we only had to pick the winners and I went sub-.500. So this year, I'm going to go through and meticulously pick all my winners, and then change every single one of them to the other team. It's the Costanza "Do the opposite" routine.

4. Is Northern Illinois making a BCS Bowl validation for Coach Kill, or a knock on him since they’re doing better now than when he was there?

More than anything it is an indication that the resources are in place from the administration and that they have hired well.  But as far as reflection on Kill, I think it is always a positive for a coach to leave a program and to see continued success at that program.  Eighteen of the 22 starters were recruited by Kill's staff which gives some indication they could identify talent.   

As a corollary, Butch Jones picked up right where Brian Kelly left off at CMU by winning 2 MAC titles to Kelly's one and sharing two at Cincy matching Kelly's two Big East Titles but I don't think people are going to say that is a knock on Kelly who rebuilt the programs and now has his team in the BCS Championship.

5. Since we should have more Gophers in here, care to comment on the state of the basketball and/or hockey programs?

Hockey is muddling along and disappointing right now.  They split with Nebraska-Omaha this weekend and unfortunately since blowing out MSU the first weekend have not looked sharp or played up to expectations all season.  Hopefully we're just saving our peak for late in the year instead of doing it early. 

At 8-1 Basketball is looking really strong.  They are getting more production out of Rodney Williams who is average 14.1 ppg and seems to finally be developing an outside shooting touch (.333 from 3-point range).  Andre Hollins has been the real story though as he continues to build on his late season play from last season and is averaging 12.8 ppg and 3.8 assists per game including a 41-point showing against #19 Memphis in which he shot 12/16 from the field and 5/5 from three.  The polls haven't come out yet but the Gophers should climb in to the top 20 after wins at Florida State and against a North Florida team that is better than most people realize.

The ...sigh... Badgers
Goddammit motherfucking cocksucking buttfuckers.

I've spent quite a bit of time on the blog this year laughing at Bucky when they've lost (or nearly lost) and also discussing with Whitebread how to ensure Bucky didn't get to another fucking Rose Bowl.

Apparently they're fucking unstoppable. 70 points? In the B1G Championship game? Fuck you, Huskers. I knew I didn't like you.

And they're not even going to play Oregon, which is retarded. If Stanford loses to fucking Wisconsin, I am going to Palo Alto and pouring Roundup all over the drunk tree.

Seriously... it looks like a Christmas ornament the Special Ed kid made in 1st Grade Art class

The wife asked me, during the Wisconsin demolition of Nebraska (prior to me permanently changing the channel to It's A Wonderful Life), if I hated Wisconsin or the Packers more.

I had to really think about that one. I ultimately decided that I hate Wisconsin more (and I may have been biased at that specific moment in time) because I hate Bucky fans just a little bit more.

Wisconsin fans just seem to carry themselves with more arrogance. Packer fans too, but at least they've won a Super Bowl. Bucky seems to take pride in being better than the Gophers, like it's some kind of a fucking accomplishment. I just hate them. They act so entitled. What say you guys?

Hot off the Press here (it was when I wrote this part): Looks like we won't have to deal with Bielema's smug face anymore.

He's probably part of the reason why I hate the Badgers so much. So much smug.

Mike McCarthy is annoying in his own way, but he's really just fat. He's nowhere near Bielema's smug level.

Similar to Ike Crabs, his hats never seem to fit his giant head quite right...

More news here... not sure how much validity there is, but some are speculating Jerry Kill could be next coach at Madison. Not sure how to feel about this... Need our UMN Insider, Cracker, to weigh in here.

BONUS! Cracker's College Football Corner
What do you think of the Bielema deal? I hate the guy, but UW fans seem to be rejoicing. I don’t get it.

I didn’t believe it when I first hear it until I realized it was Pat Forde reporting it so I knew it was credible.  My only reaction was to laugh.  I definitely didn’t see that coming.  My only question is whether it is about the money or the ego (and getting out of Barry’s shadow).  Other than the whole getting rich thing it is probably a bad career move.   Wisconsin was already built and has a built-in advantage by playing Minnesota instead of Michigan for the crossover game.

Bielema’s record while at Wisconsin: 68-24 (.739)

By component: 

•         Non-conference regular season record: 27-1 (.964) 

o   ranked opponents: 1 – #21 Fresno State

o   BCS AQ oppenents: 4 (Wash St., Oreg St x2, ASU)

•         Regular Season Conference Record: 37-19 (.660)

o   Vs. Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana & Purdue: 23-1 (.958)

o   Vs. the rest of the Big Ten: 14-18 (.438)

•         B1G Championship Game: 2-0 (1.000)

•         Bowl games: 2-4 (.333)

So basically he moves from the easy Big Ten division with a guaranteed match-up against the worst team from the Legends to the better of the two SEC divisions.  Whereas he used to have Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota & Purdue (cumulative 23-1 record against) he now gets just Ole Miss as a gimme win.  Nice move Bielema.

If you plan to bring Bielema up in the blog I’d use this picture to introduce him.

As far as Wisconsin fans acting happy…I think it is just a defense mechanism.  He is a Grade A douche which even people from Wisconsin recognize but they embraced him because he won.  Now, they’re getting ditched by their douche so to deal with getting dumped they try to convince themselves that they’ll be better off without him.

Also, heard on the radio this morning that Kill could be a guy to replace Bielema. I don’t even know how to react to that yet…

As far as any talk about Kill to Wiscy, Minnesotans are both scared because they’ve been dumped before (Holtz) and they like to convince themselves that they landed a good one so by bringing up that somebody else might want him they make themselves feel better.  I don’t see Alvarez hiring from within the Big Ten.  I think Wisconsin will look first at former DC turned NIU head coach turned NC State head coach Dave Doeren (do you think he is kicking himself for taking that job last week?) and former OC turned Pitt HC Paul Chryst.

Team Names
Thanks go out to JoJo for a fun topic last week. Let's review the options (with their supposed likeness in parentheses):

Mr. Potter (Whitebread)

Lex Luthor (Jerks)

Kevin Jonas (JoJo)

Zorg (Crapswell)

Random Task (Kenny)

Buffalo Bill (Coconuts)

Ursula (Crabs)

Bolo Yeung (Gow)

Jack Hanson (Titwarmer)

Walter Peck (Dallus)

These are great options, boys. Really well done all around.

***VOTE IN SIDEBAR***

BEST: I think we're naturally drawn towards the films we know better, thus I do love the Walter Peck name. Especially with the EPA tie-in now that Dallus shops at Whole Foods and wear clothes made of hemp.

But there is a clear winner here for me...above all the rest...

Buffalo Bill.

I mean... so perfect. All the lotion business fits Coconuts like a glove. And honestly, if we were to do an anonymous poll about who among us is mostly likely to have done the dick-tuck dance, it would probably be Coconuts.

Actually, I'd probably go Crapswell first, but Coconuts would be right behind him in the Dick Tuck Dance Power Rankings.

Awesome job, Kenny. Quite possibly your best team name ever.

Watch at your own risk

WORST: This was harder for me. I kinda wanted to go Kevin Jonas, because is he really a movie villain? Or even a villain? But that likeness really is uncanny...

I thought about Bolo Yeung, but I was a big Bloodsport fan, so it has a soft spot in my heart.

I'll go with Random Task. It doesn't look like Kenny (who isn't 100% Asian) at all, and there's nothing else that makes sense.

Did Scott Baio never play a bad guy?

Team Name Topic
I'm struggling for a topic this week, so I brainstormed (i.e. re-read what I've written so far) and decided I wanted you all to help pile on.

This week's topic (and this can be very broad): Worst Thing About Wisconsin.

The Games
I'm skipping this for the week. They're over. We all know what happened. We've moved on. And honestly they're wasn't anything too interesting that's even worth noting.

Power Rankings
Alright... I've kept these up on my own every single week, but I've only shared these with you all once, maybe twice this season. For that, I apologize. As I'm sure you've noticed with the lateness of this post, the blog is a little harder to find time for these days.

So let's roll. First up is Total Points, which should not be a surprise since it's on the front page of our site. The only notable thing here is the red and green highlights which denote Points Bonus and Loser Bonus.

Total Points Scored

Really not a whole lot that's notable here. You might see Dallus sitting there in the Top-5 and think he got j'd this year. Hold that thought until we get to the Power Rankings (I swear they're coming next).

Bonus Money
The Biggest Blowout Bonus went to your truly, with my utter domination of Gow in Week 5: 148.9-51.98. I won by 96.92 points. That record will likely stand for a while.

Coconuts takes home the narrowest loss award with his 1.4 heartbreaker to Titwarmer in Week 9. For about a day Dallus looked to be taking this award home for a less-than-one-point loss to Kenny in Week 12. But Yahoo stat corrections added a 9-yard catch to Mike Wallace the next day and bumped his loss margin to 1.62.

So with Coconuts and my additional $20, he's how all the bonus money pays out:

Thanks for playing, Whitebread.

Ok here we go. The truest measure that I know of defining who the best teams are and how they stack up against each other...

Power Rankings

That's right, Coconuts. Even with my late-season swoon and subsequent backing into a First Round Bye, I still narrowly maintained the top spot here.

To be honest, and I'll get to this in a bit, my team's performance lately makes me very nervous about the playoffs. I'm thankful I have a bye this week, because I'm not confident in how they're playing.

And for all the grief we've given Juan over the years about his shitty FF showings, he's come to play this year. Maybe not the flashiest team, but super solid and very consistent. His lowest score of the whole year was 89.6. That's impressive for anybody.

What I actually think is really interesting here is how our final standings almost match this to a T. Juan and I are flipped, but we're actually very close to each other. JoJo and Crabs are flipped at 3 and 4, but again not a big deal.

All top 6 teams are the ones making the playoffs. No one really got J'd this year and there was a lot of balance amongst everyone. Juan and I were together at the top, Whitebread was on an island at the bottom, Ned on another island next to the bottom, and then everyone else was very close.

Again, look at Dallus. Those first 7 weeks just killed his season... 9-1-9-3-9-10-9.

All-Play Record
This is the same measurement as the Power Rankings, just looking at it a different way. Again, this tracks what your record would be if you played every team every week.

Not to be a broken record here, but look at how close most of us were to each other. I was better than Coconuts by a single game. JoJo was better than Crabs by 1/2 game. And Crabs better than Gow by a single game.

And you could say the same thing about the Crapswell/Dallus/Kenny group as well, all of which were not far behind the 3-5 spots.

I'm telling you, most leagues are not like this. Most are not this balanced and parity is much harder to find. Yes, seasons like the one Whitebread had are going to happen - much of it was out of his control. But for those that play in other leagues, you know what I'm talking about.

We have a very good group here that continues to raise the bar each season. What's the phrase? Steel sharpens steel? We are all getting better at FF, because we are all getting better at FF. I know I geek out over this stuff too much, but as commissioner, I feel like a proud parent when I see numbers like this.

Bravo to you guys.

Total Points Against

Not sure if Points Against is interesting, but I track it to get the next grid.

Strength of Schedule

I mentioned it earlier and I'll say it again: Ned had the toughest schedule that our league has known, at least in the past 4 seasons.

But after Ned, a lot of balance this year. And this is really more luck-based. We can't control who we play and when. It just happens to be that we were mostly all in the same ballpark as each other. No one really had a cakewalk schedule.

Although, when you see Dallus sitting there on the bottom with league's easiest slate, you still wonder about what a missed opportunity this season was for him.

And Whitebread - second from the bottom. That explains how he can have such asstastic team, yet manage to escape the L'ass't place trophy.

Playoffs Preview
Since this is becoming sort of an all-encompassing post, it only seems right go through the same exercise with the playoff teams that I did earlier in the obituaries.

I'm going to run through them in reverse order of who I think should be the betting favorites to win. Without further ado...

6. Andy Crapswell

• Andy spent a good portion of the draft looking at Facebook.
• Per his usual method, Andy invested heavily into his starting lineup. His big spend was Aaron Rodgers for $54, but he also spent $20+ on Forte ($39), Doug Martin ($20), Greg Jennings ($27...ouch), and Welker ($28).
• Because of his top-heavy team, his bench was full of lots of flier types... and there are some good names here: Luck ($1), Malcom Floyd ($1), Denarius Moore ($4), Sidney Rice ($2). If he'd actually hung on to some of these guys, he possibly could have used them or traded them for something. But all of them were dropped and picked up by other teams throughout the season.
• He also took what we thought were two stud TE's in Davis ($6) and Hernandez ($10), but both proved to be dead weight on his team for most of the season. 
• Andy started the year 0-3, and was the worst point scorer in 2 of those 3 weeks. But he rebounded nicely winning 5 of the next 6 games. That happened to coincide with the Patriots finally using Welker, as opposed to whatever the fuck they were doing early one. Also, Rodgers pulled his head out of his ass and played like the league MVP again.
• He did sink $46 of FAAB recently into Knowshon Moreno. I guess if you have that much this late, what's the point of hanging on to it?
• No one is going to fear seeing Drew across the ledger, but he does have a nice little core of guys there... Rodgers/Forte/Martin/Welker/Hernandez/Jennings - you could do a lot worse. 

5. Ike Crabs

• Crabs is the #3 seed, so I could be undervaluing him. But at the same time... he's planning to start Vick Ballard this weekend. And LeShoure. And Maclin. I'm not saying those guys all suck, but they've been inconsistent this year, to say the least. Would it surprise you if they combined for less than 10 points?
• By most accounts, Crabs had a very solid draft. He came away with a lot of guys that many experts pegged as either underrated, breakouts, or sleepers. Some of them were great buys (AP-$28, Cruz -$22, Ridley-$13, Harvin-$20) while others were not (McFadden-$43, Hillis-$20, Maclin-$13, Antonio Brown-$13). 
• And AP deserves his own bullet. We've all seen him play this year and have heard the hyperbole living in MN. But for fantasy purposes, he's been one of the biggest success stories for the owners that took him. Remember, we didn't even know if he was going to play early on, yet he's been the best RB in the league this year, and I'm saying that not referring to FF points. Dude might run for 2,000 yards, after he tore his ACL on Chrismas. He looks even better than he did pre-injury, which is crazy. High risk pick turned into even higher reward.
• Crabs went cheap at QB and came away with Romo. Up until recently, this was looking like his downfall as Romo really struggled early on. Having had him in my dad's league, I can attest to the frustration of owning Romo. Crabs and I had our own weekly support group each Monday morning. But lately, combined with Dez finally realizing his potential, Romo's been on fire.
• Crabs was probably thankful when McFadden got hurt because he didn't feel like he had to start him anymore. Maybe I'm wrong... I'm a scorned DMC owner in my dad's league, as well.
• The biggest move for Crabs on the year was probably the 1-for-1 trade sending Ridley to Coconuts for Tony Gonzalez. It raised a lot of eyebrows at MNF as most of us didn't think Gonzo would keep his production up. We were wrong.
• At the same time, it'd be interesting to ask Crabs if he'd still do this trade, if he could go back in time. The dearth at TE this year only highlights Gonzo's value that much more. But at the same time, Ridley has been one of the most consistent and productive RB's all year.
• And let me remind you again, Crabs is starting Vick Ballard this weekend. In a playoff matchup.
• I find it very strange that Crabs' 2 best players (when healthy) are both from the Vikings. Doesn't seem like that should be possible, especially for a team in the playoffs.
• Ultimately, I think a lot of Crabs' postseason success will come down to Romo. He's a guy that can legit score you 25+, but also sink you with less than 10 pts. 

4. NooShoo Gow

• Gow took a strange approach at the draft. He seemed to over-think a few things, and also got a little too caught up in what other teams were doing. This is how you end up with Jake Locker ($1) aa your only QB, and spend $45 on 4 TE's (Graham-$30, Gates-$10, Rudolph-$3, Cook-$2). 
• I've not done a formal analysis of this, but I would wager heavily that Gow's team has the fewest number of drafted players still on roster. By my count, the only guys that remain are Ray Rice ($63), Nicks ($26), Graham ($30), and Houston D ($2). That's it.
• He was second in the league in # of transactions (28), but had the most trades (4). Let's review them:
• Traded Colston and Cook to me for Kendall Hunter and Kenny Britt. This, of all his trades, probably stings the most. Colston has hovered right around Top-10 status for most of the season since that point, while every else in the trade has done nothing.
• Traded Bradshaw to Ned for Steven Jackson. I haven't asked him, but I gotta believe he'd take this one back too, if he could. Jackson has looked better as of late, but so has Bradshaw. And with Andre Brown out for the year, as long as he stays healthy, Bradshaw could be a playoff beast.
• Traded Torrey Smith and Rudolph to Kenny for Jordy Nelson and Ben Tate. Gow loves his upside backup RB's. At the time of the trade, I thought Gow was the clear winner, but Jordy being unable to stay healthy has made this murkier. I don't know that he particularly misses either guy he gave up, but he really only got damaged goods in return, although Jordy had a couple big games
• Traded GB Def, Joe Flacco, and Gates for Cam Newton. By far his best trade of the season. An utter coup. Got his stud QB, who admittedly was sort of sucking early in the season, and basically gave up nothing. Flacco is the same as any guy on the waiver wire, and GB Def has been dropped and picked up numerous times since then. Without this trade, Gow probably doesn't make the playoffs.
• Ray Rice has looked off this year. He hasn't consistently got as much work as in years past, and he's not doing as much with the work he is getting. Still a very good RB that I know we'd all love to have, but not worth the price Gow paid for him on draft day.
• However... let us not fail to address maybe the biggest playoff wildcard player in the whole league: Bryce Brown. Holy Hell, he has been a beast. He's fumbled 3 times, but who cares? He's racked up points like Priest Holmes in his prime (albeit in 2 games). Gow has to be hoping and praying that McCoy is shut down for the season, because Brown has been a true difference maker. 
• In a month, we could easily be talking about how Brown carried Gow the championship...wouldn't surprise me at all. 

3. William "JoJo" Fredricks

• JoJo invested in 3 huge injury risks at RB during the draft: Charles ($31), Murray ($37), and Gore ($18). Those risks have paid massive dividends. Murray has been the only one to not meet his draft-day value, due to... injury. But Charles was coming off an ACL last season, and would be the best comeback stories of the year, if not for AP and Peyton. And I don't think anyone expected Gore to look this good, or stay healthy this long, after last season. 
• He also was the highest bidder after Week 1 on Alfred Morris, which has probably been the best FAAB bid of the year, considering how consistent and productive he's been for the entire season. As the guy who picked up Alf in the preseason, only to drop him 3 days before the first game, this angers me greatly.
• JoJo also took a risk, albeit low, on Jason Witten as his TE ($4). Remember there was some talk at draft time that had Witten out for half the season with his spleen thing. In a year with so much volatility at TE, Witten has been uber-consistent and is a very valuable asset for JoJo's team. 
• The big move that helped shape his current roster was shipping off the aforementioned Alf, for Roddy and Andre Johnson. I mentioned this in Ned's obit, but on paper, this has made JoJo's team very formidable. 
• JoJo had one of the tougher schedules in the league, especially early on as he faced a Top-3 point scorer in 4 of the first 6 weeks. This led to him having a 2-4 record and really stayed under the radar for most of the season. 
• He finished the year winning 5 of his last 7, and he's got a team that easily score a 100+ without his guys having crazy huge days.
• Seriously: Brees, Calvin, Roddy, Andre, Austin, Charles, Gore, Murray. JoJo's team is deep and has top-end talent. If I showed you this roster 2 seasons ago, you'd think it was a joke - it's that good. Some of the guys have had slower seasons and might be getting up there in age, but still. No one is going to be surprised if this team makes serious noise. 

2. Rod Jerks

• The draft was interesting for me... I really didn't plan for it to go the way it did. I wasn't surprised or worried at all when I got Foster ($63) because I actually thought that was a little low for him. However, when lots of people were bidding on MJD (who was holding out) and I said "$39" and the room stopped, I got a little more concerned. Uh oh. 
• I also thought Gow was going to keep going on Julio Jones, who I got for $36, and again I thought it was a good deal on draft day, but didn't have the money to be bidding the way I was. Not sure what to think now...
• And Vick... oy Vick. I knew the moment I said "$20", the back of my mind was saying "WHAT ARE YOU DOING?" I had already spent way too much of my budget, and I didn't really even want Vick. I was fucked.
• So I scrambled and had to find the deals that I could... and fortunately a couple paid off (Demaryius-$10, Spiller-$2, Peyton-$5). Oh, I had some misses too (Donald Brown-$9, Rashad Jennings-$6), but since I had spent most of my budget, I couldn't fuck things up too badly anymore. 
• Gow helped bail me out for my lack of depth with the aforementioned Colston Giveaway early in the season. Thank you, Shoo. 
• And I was wrong...or half wrong. I only have 4 guys rostered from Draft Day too: Foster, Demaryius, Julio, Spiller.
• I loved my trade with Cracker (MJD/Peyton for Ryan/Mathews) at the time because I thought Ryan was the best player in the deal, and Mathews had loads of upside that was about to be unlocked. It turns out Peyton was the best player in the deal, and the best part about it for me was shedding MJD before he got injured. If I could go back in time, I don't know if I'd do it again... With how dominant Manning has been, I'd probably hang on to him. Ryan has really regressed since the early season, and it's hurting my team.
• I began the season 7-1. I was the Top Point Scorer 4 of the first 8 weeks. I felt good. But I'm limping into the playoffs losing 4 of my last 5, lost my total points lead, and ultimately barely earned a first round bye. This has been due to a couple factors:
• Ryan isn't the guy he was at the beginning of the season. That offense looked wide open early on, but he's thrown 0 or 1 TD passes in 4 of the last 5 weeks (also coincided with my losses during that timeframe). 
• Foster... he's the dirty little secret about Arian Foster this year. He hasn't been that good. He's averaging less than 4 yards/carry. His FF numbers are strong only because of the volume he's gotten, but with that comes the risk of injury. And yes, he leads the league in TD's but that has simply offset his lack of production everywhere else. I watch a lot of his games, and he doesn't look fast or explosive. He looks tired. I'm very worried about Arian Foster.
• TE/Defense/Kicker - Many times, when our guys have bad weeks, we'll get big performances from our defense or kicker that bails us out. I haven't had any of those. Ten points out of a defense is a miracle for me. And trying to get a good TE has been like tracking down a Unicorn all season... have yet to find one.
• All that said, I'm poopoo-ing what ultimately is still a very good team. Most of you know I'm a big believer in Fantasy Karma and would never brag about my team in this space, for fear of jinxing anything. But I acknowledge that I'm being overly critical of a team that has performed well. I put myself in the #2 spot because I still believe my team has the potential finish strong, and with a 1st Round Bye, I'm already guaranteed a spot in the semis, whereas any of the previous teams can lose this weekend. 
• But I should not be the favorite... that belongs to this guy.

1. Juan Coconuts

• You know, the Mayans may ultimately end up being right. This is probably a sign of the apocalypse. Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine Juan Coconuts would sit atop the BOTT FF Standings heading into the playoffs. Not ever.
• Looking over his draft day results, Juan really didn't invest too much into any one player. He went with a more balanced approach and it served him well. The most he spent on a single guy was Fred Jackson ($31). 
• Michael Turner ($26) has looked old, slow, and pretty much terrible all year. But the box scores don't lie. He's been productive, mostly due to the TD's for Juan, who took him at a price I would never have paid on Draft Day.
• AJ Green, who could be the #1 WR pre-drafts next season, was an absolute steal for $27. He scored a TD in every single game from Weeks 2-11, and has been productive in every game of the year. High-level consistency - he's the current #1 fantasy WR. 
• Vincent Jackson has been another steal at $15. He's been a little hot-and-cold, but overall he sits as the #5 fantasy WR, so you don't have too much to complain about. He was another guy I was completely avoiding on draft day.
• And you know who's #6? Dez Bryant. The guy has woke up in the last month. He scored 59 total fantasy points from Weeks 1-9. But Weeks 10-13, he's got 79, including 20+ in each of the last 3 weeks. The guy has been ON FIRE and looks like another Calvin Johnson. That gives Juan 3 of the Top 6 fantasy WR's, and that's the biggest reason he sits in 1st place.
• Another very important factor getting him there was his draft day TE's: Gronk ($27) and Gonzo ($7). Gronk was the best TE in the league before he got hurt, and it wasn't close. And Gonzo allowed Juan to nab Ridley from Crabs, which is easily his most important transaction of the season. 
• Juan started the year going 0-2, and it looked like same ol' Coconuts. But then he rattled off 6 in a row before losing a classic Coconuts heartbreaker to Ed on MNF in Week 9. He finished the season winning his last 3 games and took over 1st Place and the lead in Total Points along the way. 
• If Juan has a weakness, it's probably at QB. Eli has been all over the board and has had some really atrocious games. Dalton is a very good backup, but is he really going to feel comfortable starting him in a playoff matchup? Like Romo, both QB's could score 25+ or could score less than 10, and neither outcome would surprise me. 
• But again, this is nitpicking. Neither Eli or Dalton are bad QB's, they just lack consistency. Juan only needs them to be good for 2 weeks and he's the likely champion. 
• And if he happens to get Gronk back, look out. Combine Gronk with those 3 WR, and his QB almost don't matter. He just needs mediocre production and he'll still put up huge scores. 
• I swear to God, this isn't a jinx. I believe Juan should be the favorite to win the league this year. That doesn't mean he will. But odds should definitely be most heavily-weighted towards him. 

And with that, let's all begin preparing for the apocalypse.

Tonight

I'm didn't make it. The Redskins won. There were 2 challenges in the 1st Quarter. Whitebread got drunk.

Let's talk about the upcoming events before the Holidays...

First, MNF on Dec 17th. I think we're all hoping to be there. Some are bringing their ladies, others are not. 

Second, the Friday Football Feast at the BWW in Lakeville on Dec 21st. The whole thing starts at 9am, but we're going to need to get there early to hold enough seats. At least by 8am, and probably earlier. Right now, I've heard all of the following are going:

• Me
• Ms. Jerks
• Crabs
• Gow
• Crapswell
• Dallus
• Ms. Coconuts (Mr. isn't going, but the wife is...you tell me who wears the pants)

That's all at the moment, but let me know if I missed anyone or if others are planning to go. It's one of the few remaining instances in our lives where it's socially acceptable to get drunk on a Friday morning. 

Ok, it's probably time to wrap this up. Please, please, please comment - this obviously occupied a lot of my time and having you all engage in the conversation below helps me validate it.

And with that, I'll leave you with this...

Hey, remember when Kenny brought home a homeless guy?

God, what a mess. Kenny and I go to HH and get drunk. Kenny talks to this dude on the bus and somehow invites him back. He made him a gin 'n juice, gave him the XXXL orange polo shirt, and the dude wouldn't leave.

Just look at us... Juan and Andy are both wearing necklaces they probably got on Spring Break, Orth is wearing jorts, and I'm flashing the "Rip 'Em" sign from the 80's classic No Holds Barred, starring Hulk Hogan. 

Enjoy the playoffs, boys.