Waiver Wire Roulette

Ahhhh, yes. The waiver wire… Everyone’s favorite Fall version of the Casino that you can play while “stalling” on that next project at work or while avoiding conversation with strangers in line to get a Pumpkin Spice latte (Marcus Whitebread). Or maybe the waiver wire is where you go to get your gambling kicks at night after the kids are in bed because, dammit, they never seem to take a break from demanding more food, clothing, and attention.

We all have a love/hate relationship with the well of opportunity and heartbreak. And we all overplay our luck every now and again, even against our better judgment. It’s just SO TEMPTING to spin the wheel. You know what I’m talking about. Like this past Sunday, this is the rough sequence of thoughts that ran through my head…

·       Sunday, 10:30 am. Crap. NFL network just reported that Marques Colston is a scratch and will not be starting this week. Whatever… that guy sucks anyways. He’s only scored ~1 point each of the last three weeks.

·       Sunday, 10:45 am. I can’t decide who else to drop from my team, so I’m gonna drop that no-production ass-clown Colston despite his name value. Hmmm…but there’s no good receivers left on the waiver wire. Let’s take a flyer on this Jeremy Kerley guy. He’s the Jets’ #1 receiver and his QB is actually good like every other week. He should at least get 5 or 6 points.

·       Sunday, 1:00 pm. WHAT?! Kerley got injured in the second quarter and left the game with a grand total of one yard!? WTF. What a dick. Just my luck, too.

·       Sunday, 7:00 pm. I KNEW I should’ve picked up Aaron Dobson instead of Kerley. His 25 points sure would’ve been nice. He was a bye week replacement on my team a few weeks ago but I let him go after he didn’t do anything. Apparently he can catch the ball and his old man of a quarterback isn’t dead yet. You idiot, Dallas.

·       Sunday, 10:00 pm.  Yeah, well, whatever. I’m over it. I picked up Keenan Allen for free about a month ago and the analysts are saying he’s now a top 15 WR rest of season and half the league is trying to trade for him. Take that, Waiver wire gods.

And so goes the waiver wire drama. You gotta love it. Or maybe hate it.

Now on to the real point of this blog post – the mid-season Waiver Wire Evaluation. Yeah, laughing about everyone’s ridiculous FAAB bids every week is a good time, but it really doesn’t tell you much other than how good some of us are at Game Theory (i.e. I better bid $3 dollars for this TE because waiver TEs are in high demand this week with 2 top-10’s on bye, and I know those other guys who need a one-week replacement will only want to bid $1 or $2…so I’m gonna outsmart them both by bidding $3. Hahahahaha…suckers.)

The real question that we’re trying to get to the bottom of here is: WHO IS GOOD AT CAPTURING FANTASY STARTER VALUE FROM THE WAIVER WIRE?  What follows is a lightly researched and totally unscientific evaluation of players picked up off the waiver wire. I mostly looked at guys that were purchased using FAAB and ignored kickers and defenses but I’m sure there were some great free pickups that I didn't bother to look up, so feel free to add them in the comments. Also, more banter & criticism is strongly encouraged. Here we go.

·       Joique Bell (winning bid $13 by Nu Shu) – After much promise as a split carry/goal line back in the first couple games & multiple unsuccessful attempts at a trade with the Reggie Bush owner (Dallas), Joique is largely a waste of FAAB dollars on the bench. Unless Reggie Bush goes down permanently…

·       Julian Edelman (winning bid $38 by Jerks) – Jerks really blew his wad early on this one, and she didn’t even get pregnant. You gotta admit the theory behind this one was sound even if the bid came in over the top – The Pats offense…Tom Brady at QB…Gronk, Hernandez, and really the lack of ANY big-play receivers at the time, Edelman had the potential to be THE GUY. After that first big game, I’m not really sure what happened. Only one other game > 10 fantasy points. Last I heard, this guy was still around somewhere. Just not on a legit fantasy roster.

·       Knowshon Moreno (winning bid $12) – Holy crap this was an amazing pickup. At the beginning of the season the 3 Denver RBs were literally playing Rock-Paper-Scissors to decide who got a goal line carry. Some basic pass protection know-how from Moreno and *presto* he’s the main guy on a high-octane Denver Bronco team and has AVERAGED 17 points/week since the September 11^th pickup. Well done, Mr. Crapswell. If you’re looking for the best FAAB pickup so far this season, you probably don’t have to read any further.

·       Julius Thomas (winning bid $33) – This was another high-profile FAAB bidding war after everyone’s eyes were opened week 1 to just how good the Broncos were going to be. Steep price tag at 1/3 of the total yearly FAAB budget, but probably about right, maybe somewhat high, given how he’s performed – solid Flex numbers, even if a bit hit/miss. If a trade to someone in need of a decent TE could get done here more value could be realized.

·       BGE, Law Firm (winning bid $10) – Probably about fair price for a low-end flex option.

·       DeAndre Hopkins (winning bid $22) – After big week 2 performance: Wow! This Hopkins kid is really good! Oh, but wait. His quarterback throws TDs to the wrong team. This was a waste of good FAAB dollars unless Case Keenam can learn to throw to someone with a name that’s not Johnson.

·       James Starks (winning bid $28) – Most of us in the league knew this one was bad when it went down. Starks proceeded to put up 5.5 points in week 3 before being replaced…Oops.

·       Eddie Royal (winning bid $17 by Dallas) – This is another that goes in the “Oops” category. After the first 2 monster weeks with 5 total TDs, felt like I had to take a chance to see if this was for real. It wasn’t. Royal proceeded to score between 0 and 4 points each of the next 4 weeks, but at least it led me to Keenan Allen once I realized that Old Man Phillip Rivers is having something of a revival season. Last check: Royal actually put up good points as a bye week replacement for Whitebread’s team last week.

·       Pierre Thomas (winning bid $12) – Pretty good value here as a Flex starter.

·       Kansas City D/ST (winning bid $3) – Great pickup for the price, as the Kansas City defense is playing out of their minds. One of the few D/STs you can just plug & play every week without a second thought.

·       Greg Jennings (winning bid $4) – If the Vikings are a dumpster fire, Jennings is the double-walled, extra sturdy cardboard box you purchased from Uhaul for $4 that is now inside of that dumpster.

·       Rashad Jennings (winning bid $22) – I think Rashad Jennings and James Starks are twins! Although I think Jennings has a real opportunity going forward and has once again been plucked off the waiver wire…for free. This time it could turn out pretty well.

·       Danny Woodhead (winning bid $9) – Good value pickup as a low-end RB2 or Flex starter. Has consistently put up 8-14 points each week since the pickup.

·       St. Louis D/ST (winning bid $3) – I assume this turned out to be a good one-week replacement since they were playing Jacksonville that weekend and put up 15 points.

·       Jay Cutler (winning bid $11) – A good pickup at the time, as he was playing well, put up 20 points the week after pickup, but that injury really hurt the next week. Now he’s come full-circle and is back off waivers again. We’ll see if every NFL fan’s favorite pretty boy can get back into the groove when he returns.

·       Denarius Moore (winning bid $16) – One nice game against KC but “meh” since then. You probably overpaid.

·       Joseph Randle (winning bid $26) – Fizzle…fizzle…fizzle...welcome back, DeMarco.

·       Brandon Jacobs (winning bid $24) – Hahahahaha. AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Who would’ve guessed, an old fat guy that was sitting on his couch watching football a few Sundays ago would come back as an emergency fill-in and proceed to pull a hamstring.

·       Chris Ivory (winning bid $17) – Evaluation TBD. After pickup, has had one game of 1 point and the following game with 20 points. I don’t know enough about his situation so I’ll withhold judgment for others.

·       Jarrett Boykin (winning bid $28 by Jerks) – Well look here who took Julian Edelman’s roster spot. Someone got a little too excited again about a no-name WR who all of a sudden found himself stepping into a big role on a pass-happy team with a stellar quarterback. I guess everyone’s got their thing that they’re into, and that’s Jerks’ thing. Unfortunately, neither of the two worked out this year. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that Mr. Jerks will place near the top of this year’s worst FAAB bidding/waiver wire performance.

·       Jordan Reed (winning bid $31) – Very average TE performance of ~7 points/week in the two weeks after pickup. Lots of season left, but tilting toward a bad pickup.

·       Mike James (winning bid $12) – This could turn out to be a pretty dang good pickup if he keeps up the pace of 30 carries & big yardage he got last week.

·       Heath Miller (winning bid $3) – It’s a little known fact around the league that I picked up Heath Miller for the sole purpose of blocking my week 8 opponent from picking him up & playing him that week. It didn’t matter, since both Miller and the other guy that was played both only scored ~2 points that week, but the fun of doing it was easily worth the $3 in FAAB.

·       Marvin Jones (winning bid $22) – Is Marvin Jones the mid-season version of Eddie Royal? After a few big weeks, his first week on somebody’s roster netted 6.6 points, hardly worth 1/5 of a season’s FAAB budget. This guy is a wildcard, and final evaluation is TBD.

·       Kendall Wright (winning bid $15) – Probably overpaid for this low-end Flex guy that is a consistent 6-9 points.

·       Emmanuel Sanders (winning bid $19) – Two nice, productive weeks in a row. I’m sure it would help if Big Ben could stay alive the rest of the season.

·       Alex Smith (winning bid $8) – I’m not sure the current King of Game Management actually belongs on a 10-team league fantasy roster, as evidenced by his 5.6 point performance against the Buffalo Bills last week. But, hey, good luck to you. As a side note, it’s really sad when you long for an Alex Smith-type Game Manager of a quarterback rather than the crap under center we currently have playing for the Vikings.

And that brings us to this week’s pickups, who everybody massively overpaid for. Apparently most of the league is satisfied with their team at this point in the season and no longer interested in FAAB bidding.  Let’s see it - Nick Foles to Riley Cooper all weekend long! Whoo!! It’s getting late and I’m running out of material, so continue the banter in comments below, especially about free pickups. So long from Oklahoma!