Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Weekly FAAB update

This is the week where we usually see a lot of high priced pickups and a lot pickups based on playoff schedules.

However, with both Kenni and Bob on a limited budget, they'll have to do most of their pickups the old fashioned way. Andy clinched a spot last week, so I was surprised he didn't go for a bigger splash to shore up his playoff rosters (or block others).

As for those who are sitting on the outside looking in, I was surprised there wasn't more overspending knowing your season could end if you don't win this week. Obviously, you all have more faith in your .500 or below team more than I do.


Player Cost Team Next Highest Bid Differential Pickup week
Benny Cunningham $13 Andy $10 $3 13
Dennis Johnson* $18 Kenni $0 $18 13
Bilal Powell $10 Ned $5 $5 13
Nate Burleson $15 Ned $0 $15 13
Julian Edelman $6 Andy $0 $6 13
Andy Dalton $3 Dallas $0 $3 13
Miami $2 Dallas $0 $2 13

Monday, November 25, 2013

Monday Update: Last Call


Gentlemen,

Late flight back to good ol' Minnesota yesterday, and I didn't work at all last night on the Update.

Thus, you get the info, but not the funnies today.

My apologies... I did have to get some work done.

The Games

Kenni Hana (79.58) vs. Bill Fredricks (53.70) 

  • Kenni continues to J his way to the top. He could very likely be alone in 1st place tomorrow, and at the very least will be tied for the top spot.
  • Between these 2 teams, they started a combined NINE players that scored less than 5 points. Yes someone gets to win. Of course it's Kenni.
  • Nice week, Bill.

Dick Dallus (92.80) vs. Ned Titwarmer (67.02)
  • Ned was riding high just a month ago, looking like a favorite for a playoff bye. After losing 4 in a row, he's now at risk of not making it in...
  • Meanwhile, someone break up Dallus! The newlywed is going to be fighting for that final spot next week, and he could very well knock Ned out to claim it.
  • Regarding the actual players, both of Ned's RBs scored negative points. I'm pretty sure that's never happened before and is likely to never be repeated. 
  • Dallus' team is red hot, scoring 6 TD's and he still has RG3 going tonight. He's the favorite for this week's Points Bonus.

Marcus Whitebread (100.96) vs. Ike Crabs (78.88)
  • It's pretty comical that this is one of Cracker's best teams in the past few seasons, and he still could legitimately finish last...
  • Meanwhile Crabs could have scored 139 points (with Davis still to play), and yet he sits there right now at 79... Rivers (28), Wallace (19), SJax (14), and Cardinal D (13) all on the bench.
  • Interesting match here... Crabs needs to win to keep any slim playoffs hope alive. He has a legit shot with Alf Mo and VDavis. Whitebread counters with 49ers D.
  • Whitebread is a 70% favorite, according to Yahoo.

Juan Coconuts (105.46) vs. NooShoo Gow (62.90)
  • Very important matchup here... coming into this week, these were the #6 and #7 teams in the standings, meaning only one of them would make it in, at that point.
  • Juan has put up one of his stronger scores of the year, but Gow is still in it...barely.
  • Gow is pushing for lots of SF scores tonight as he has both Kaepernick and Gore, and needs 43 points between the. 
  • Juan is an 80% favorite to win, but you know he'll be sweating if Kap throws a TD to Gore in the 1st Q.

Rod Jerks (86.68) vs. Andy Crapswell (78.22)
  • If you had told me last week, I'd be up 8 going into MNF, I'd have been thrilled. 
  • If you had told me yesterday at 7pm, I'd be up 8 going into MNF, I'd have asked 'How...unless Moreno gets 37 carries?' 
  • Oh.
  • FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK. 
  • God fucking dammit. Fuck you Welker, you fucking droptastic cuntbag. And Peyton too, you gimpy, spastic, suckass in the cold. Move the goddamn ball by passing once in a while.
  • My team wasn't particulary strong this week, but Andy's was ass-tastic until last night. And now he's favored to win with Garcon going. I'll explain shortly why this sucks even more than usual.
  • Andy is officially a 58% favorite to win. 

Looking Ahead

Here's a look at tomorrow's standings, assuming the favorites win:

Place Team Record
1st Kenni Hana 9-3
2nd Andy Crapswell 8-4
3rd Rod Jerks 8-4
4th Juan Coconuts 6-6
5th Ned Titwarmer 6-6
6th Bill Fredricks 5-7
7th Dick Dallus 5-7
8th NooShoo Gow 5-7
9th Marcus Whitebread 4-8
10th Ike Crabs 4-8

A loss to Andy suddenly knocks me out of a 1st Round bye position. We still have one week, left, but suddenly I'm on the outside-looking-in. I know no one cares about this, but it really pisses me off. All because of stupid Knowshon Moreno and his amazing career game.

Nice job, Del Rio. Way to give your injury-prone RB a million carries. Oh, whaddya know??? He fucking left the game on crutches. Great coaching, asshat.

If by some miracle, Garcon doesn't get Andy his 8 points tonight, Kenni and I would both be 9-3 and have 1st Round byes locked up. So Kenni, you should be rooting for me!!!

Going deeper into the standings, we see Juan Coconuts is all but assured a playoff spot, assuming his lead holds tonight. Given his point total, a whole lot would have to go wrong next week for him to not make it.

On the other hand, there is a legit scenario where Ned doesn't make it if he loses next week. Bill certainly has him beat in points, and Dallus also will after tonight. 

Whitebread is out of the basement, at least for this week. If he wins next week, he gets to officially save himself of L'Ass't place... that honor will go to Crabs.

Oh... and FUCK YOU KENNI.

Week 13 Schedule
  • Rod Jerks vs. Marcus Whitebread
  • Ned Titwarmer vs. Andy Crapswell
  • Dick Dallus vs. Kenni Hana
  • Juan Coconuts vs. Ike Crabs
  • Bill Fredricks vs. NooShoo Gow

That last matchup might be most crucial, certainly for the teams involved. Both Gow and Bill will (likely) be 5-7. Bill should earn a spot with a win. Gow will need win, plus some help.

Ned may need to be Andy to save his season. Andy will be fighting for a bye.

I'll be taking on the guy I've been ragging for weeks... You know, the one tied for last with the most points in the league. 

Dallus hasn't made the playoffs in quite some time. He'll have to avoid the Kenni J-ish luck to do so.

Juan plays Ike in a match that likely can't change the fate of either. Juan will be in. Ike will be out.

Tonight

I won't be there. I'll be on a dumbass conference call with my Management and Organizational Behavior group. 

And then I'll be watching intently, hoping/praying Pierre Garcon does not get 8 fantasy points. I don't root for injuries, but if he happened to get hurt, I'll probably look like this...


Enjoy the game, boys. See you next week. 

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Team name

No frills this week....

"We regret to inform you that the Department (or Office) of _____________ has denied your request for ______________".

Therefore you team name should have a minimum of two words. Examples include:

"Health / AIDS testing"
"Gays / More Rainbows"
"Transportation / Seatbelts"
"STD's / more sex"
"Army / more rapes"
"DD Cups / s Breast Reduction"

You get the idea. 

This is basically the one week Dallus is excused from doing anything FF related, so if he changes his name this week, you suck. On that note CONGRATULATIONS to you, sir. Wish you guys the best.
I can't tell if this was taken last decade or last week....




Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Weekly FAAB update

Slow week this week. Not sure if that's because people have given up, don't have any money left, are happy with their teams or there just aren't any good players out there right now. I'm going with the latter. I'll award myself the weekly prize for paying $12 for a guy I could have picked up for free.


Player Cost Team Next Highest Bid Differential Pickup week
Emmanual Sanders $12 NEd $0 $12 11
Michael Floyd $15 Marcus $4 $11 12
Chris Ogbonnaya $8 Gow $1 $7 12

Monday, November 18, 2013

Monday Update: Running Out of Time


Gentlemen,

There is only 2 weeks left of the Fantasy Football regular season. No matter how your team is doing, let that sink in...


Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Weekly FAAB Update

This week, we learned how a players perceived value can dramatically change from one week to the next. Case in point: Marques Colston. He was picked up last week for $2, then subsequently dropped. One big game, and he gets picked up for $10 this week.

The "Why the hell not?" award goes to Andy for his $22 pick up of Tavon Austin - creating the second largest $ differential this season (Edelman is still #1 at $27).



Player Cost Team Next Highest Bid Differential Pickup week
Jarret Boykin $11 Marcus $8 $3 11
Marques Colston $10 Juan $5 $5 11
Tavon Austin $22 Andy $0 $22 11
Brian Leonard $12 Bill $0 $12 11
Jerico Cotchery $7 Andy $0 $7 11
Colby Fleener $5 Marcus $0 $5 11
Nick Novak $2 Crabs $0 $2 11

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Tuesday Update: Power Ranks!


Gentlemen,

A brief explanation about the Power Rankings, since we've not been reviewed them yet this season...

I began doing these about 6-7 years ago - when I felt like every team I played had their best week against me - to determine when the luck of scheduling was removed, who was the best team.

I started tracking the scores each week to determine how we all fared in comparison with each other. Points Scored and Points Against can give you some idea of this info, but can be skewed by outlier weeks.

These are RANKINGS - they RANK us in comparison with each other. It doesn't matter if the top point scorer got 170 points one week, and the next top points scorer only got 100 - for the purposes of ranking against the other teams, they both earn a 1 for their respective weeks.

TOTAL POINTS SCORED











TOTAL POINTS AGAINST












The two grids above are simply Points Scored and Points Against by week for the whole season. This is simply the data used to determine the Power Rankings and also Strength of Schedule.

The Points Scored grid also denotes who has won the Points Bonus (Green) and Loser Bonus (Red) for each week. Totals for the season so far are:

Bill Fredricks  $45.00
Marcus Whitebread  $25.00
Rod Jerks  $20.00
Juan Coconuts  $20.00
Ike Crabs  $20.00
NooShoo Gow  $20.00
Andy Crapswell  $15.00
Kenni Hana  $15.00
Dick Dallus  $15.00
Ned Titwarmer  $5.00

Ok, let's get to the analysis...

POWER RANKINGS











I'm not particularly fond of my team, so this is a little bit surprising. If you want to rip me in the comments, feel free. The fact that I sit atop these rankings, to me, speaks more to how balanced the whole league is this season. The records bear that out.

It's worth noting that Teams 2-9 (which is actually a 3-way tie for 7th) are only separated by 0.5 - what that means is that those teams have all been very, very close.

To be honest, I did not expect to see Kenni sitting there tied for 2... I think the general belief with Kenni is that he is lucky and has no business being 7-3, but based on these metrics, he's performed well enough to have earn the record he has.

I was also surprised to see Crapswell as low as he is... I've personally thought he had one of the stronger teams this season, but much of my belief may have been based on his depth, not necessarily his starting lineup.

Gow's team has been pretty darn bad this year. He's been the lowest point scorer 4 times in just 10 weeks.

If you're interested in looking at these metrics in another way, here are hypothetical records of all teams, if we played every team each week:

Rod Jerks 54-36
Kenni Hana 47-43
Bill Fredricks 47-43
Ned Titwarmer 47-43
Juan Coconuts 46-44
Marcus Whitebread 45-45
Ike Crabs 42-48
Andy Crapswell 42-48
Dick Dallus 42-48
NooShoo Gow 38-52

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE











These are the same numbers as Power Rankings, but with how your Points Scored Against ranked amongst the other teams.

As you can see, no one has had it tougher this year than Whitebread. I like to give him grief about complaining, but the reality is he really has had it rough. Five times he's had to face the top point scorer in the league. FIVE. Out of TEN. He's currently on the bottom of our standings, but his team is definitely not the worst.

After Whitey, Dallus and Coconuts both have faced stiffer competition as well. Neither to the degree that Cracker has, but it's a big reason why both sit at 4-6 rather than 6-4.

Ned has had just about the easiest rode as we've ever seen. He's faced a team a bottom-four scorer 8 times out of 10 weeks. That's just insanely unfair.

Fun fact: Whitebread would be 7-2 if he had Ned's schedule (removing the week he played against himself).


Let me know if you guys still like this info. What else would you like to see? Is this pointless? Did I miss anything notable in my analysis?