Monday Update: A Whole New Ballgame

Gentlemen,

Week 8 is basically in the books. There's a game tonight, but every game is basically over.

How do you feel about your team at this point? 

Before you answer that, let's look at this in another way... At the beginning of this season, before anything ever happened including the draft, we all wagered $100. Essentially, you were betting on yourself.


Fantasy sports at their core are really just competitions to see who knows more about sports. Those arguments we get into at a bar, Team A being better than Team B or taking Player X over Player Y, are played out in a elaborate wager where a winner is always quantified and awarded.

So in essence, that $100 is a bet that you know more about the NFL than your nine other leaguemates.

We are eight weeks into the season, and we know WAY more now than we did in August. And with that additional context, I ask you all again:

How do you feel about your team at this point?

Acutally, hold that thought one more time, while I ask another question:

If you could double-down on your team right now, throw down an additional $100 with everything paying out double, would you do it?

The answer to that question is likely tied to the first one. And if you are one of the people pocketing your $100, rather than doubling-up, it's time to do something with your team.

For the record, no one is doubling-up, so don't ask. But you have committed $100 to this - we all have. You have placed a $100 wager on yourself to be better than everyone else in our league. You have control here. Have you done everything in your power so far to win that bet, the bet you placed on yourself?

We're going to get to the standings further down, but the bottom line is this: EVERYONE has a chance  this year. No one is out of it, with 5 weeks to go. There's been teams with better luck or worse luck, but nothing about the past 8 weeks can be changed. All you have control over is the next 5 weeks.

So what are you going to do about it?

Power Rankings (Abridged Version)
I wanted to get a Power Rankings post on the blog last week, but ended up having a busy week and didn't get it completed. I intend to do one this week, but Week 8 data will skew it and I wanted to show you just how balanced our league has been this season.

Power Rankings

As a reminder with this grid... these are rankings by week for where each team scored relative to each other. So a 1 = top point scorer, 2 = 2nd highest point scorer ... 10 = lowest point scorer. Those are then averaged to give you the Power Rank.

I'm not going to review these too much other than this: The top rank (currently Ned) is averaging a 5.00. That's not a strong number for the #1 team in our Power Rankings. Traditionally, the top guys is somewhere in the 3.7-4.3 range, which may not sound like a lot, but statistically is a big difference.

Moreover, think about that number... 5.00. Averaging as the 5th highest scorer is good enough to be the best team in our league. The 5th highest scorer this week (week 8) may not score 90. WUT?

Now, here's where it gets really crazy: the last place person (Coconuts) is averaging 5.86.

So the difference between the best and worst teams is less than one place in average weekly scoring. An average of 5th highest scorer is good enough for #1, but averaging 6th highest scorer is last place.

It's nerdy, but statistically that is just crazy.

Strength of Schedule Against

Just if you're curious, these are the Strength of Schedule numbers. Basically, when the Power Rankings are as close as they are, the SOS is going to matter even more.

And no surprise, it's basically a reverse order of the standings going into Week 7.

The Games
Going to go through these quick as there isn't much drama for tonight...

Whitebread (151) vs. Kenni (79)

• Just a bananas week for Cracker. And Megatron's 36.9 points could have easily been over 50. 
• Starting Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory hasn't traditionally been a good FF play, and that trend continued this week for Kenni.

Cracker's reaction during the Ellington TD

Jerks (106) vs. Crabs (80)

• Not really sure how I got 100 points but I'll certainly take it. 
• Crabs high scorer was Mason Crosby. 

Crapswell (104) vs. Coconuts (79)

• Coconuts had a disappointing week, but I was most disappointed that he didn't update his team name after Andy's blog post last week. 
• Andy dropped 2 guys last week, and never picked anyone up to replace them. And still scored 100 points. He's so cool.

Ned (77) vs. Gow (68)

• If you reviewed the Strength of Schedule numbers above, you may have noticed how ridiculously easy Ned has had it. This week was no different. Teams continue to lay down against him.
• Michael Vick (starter) = -0.7 points. Colin Kaepernick (bench) = 27.96 pts. Good choice, Gow.

Dallus (84) vs. JoJo (69)

• What has happened to Bill's team? My god... 4 weeks ago, I thought he was a lock for the #1 seed.
• Dallus' team wasn't particularly impressive, other than Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of which, here's a conversation I had with Juan Coconuts last night about that Vikings-Packers abortion:

Early Standings

So unless there is some crazy comeback with Bill and his kicker vs. Dallus, this should be what the standings look like tomorrow.

Place	Team	Record
1st	Rod Jerks	6-2
2nd	Ned Titwarmer	6-2
3rd	Andy Crapswell	5-3
4th	Kenni Hana	5-3
5th	Marcus Whitebread	3-5
6th	Bill Fredricks	3-5
7th	Dick Dallus	3-5
8th	Ike Crabs	3-5
9th	Juan Coconuts	3-5
10th	NooShoo Gow	3-5

That's a tie all the way from 5th place to 10th - six teams fighting for 2 playoff spots. And oh by the way, if any of you can catch Kenni, you're going to beat him in total points. 

Let me reiterate my early point: EVERYONE has a chance this year. Eight weeks have past and you can't change what's happened. All you have control over is the next five weeks of the regular season. 

What are YOU going to do about it?

Tonight

I'm out!

If you're in, drink some beer for me. And if you can drink three pitchers without her leaving the table again, my tip of the cap to you.

Looking ahead to next week: Packers vs. Bears...

YOU SHUT UP!

Enjoy the game, boys.