Ahhhh, yes. The waiver wire…
Everyone’s favorite Fall version of the Casino that you can play while “stalling” on that next project at work or while avoiding conversation with
strangers in line to get a Pumpkin Spice latte (Marcus Whitebread). Or maybe
the waiver wire is where you go to get your gambling kicks at night after the
kids are in bed because, dammit, they never seem to take a break from demanding
more food, clothing, and attention.
We all have a love/hate
relationship with the well of opportunity and heartbreak. And we all overplay
our luck every now and again, even against our better judgment. It’s just SO
TEMPTING to spin the wheel. You know what I’m talking about. Like this
past Sunday, this is the rough sequence of thoughts that ran through my head…
· Sunday, 10:30 am. Crap.
NFL network just reported that Marques Colston is a scratch and will not be
starting this week. Whatever… that guy sucks anyways. He’s only scored ~1 point
each of the last three weeks.
· Sunday, 10:45 am. I
can’t decide who else to drop from my team, so I’m gonna drop that no-production
ass-clown Colston despite his name value. Hmmm…but there’s no good receivers
left on the waiver wire. Let’s take a flyer on this Jeremy Kerley guy. He’s the
Jets’ #1 receiver and his QB is actually good like every other week. He should
at least get 5 or 6 points.
· Sunday, 1:00 pm. WHAT?!
Kerley got injured in the second quarter and left the game with a grand total
of one yard!? WTF. What a dick. Just my luck, too.
· Sunday, 7:00 pm. I
KNEW I should’ve picked up Aaron Dobson instead of Kerley. His 25 points sure
would’ve been nice. He was a bye week replacement on my team a few weeks ago but
I let him go after he didn’t do anything. Apparently he can catch the ball and
his old man of a quarterback isn’t dead yet. You idiot, Dallas.
· Sunday, 10:00 pm.
Yeah, well, whatever. I’m over it.
I picked up Keenan Allen for free about a month ago and the analysts are saying
he’s now a top 15 WR rest of season and half the league is trying to trade for
him. Take that, Waiver wire gods.
And so goes the waiver wire
drama. You gotta love it. Or maybe hate it.
Now on to the real point of
this blog post – the mid-season Waiver Wire Evaluation. Yeah, laughing about
everyone’s ridiculous FAAB bids every week is a good time, but it really
doesn’t tell you much other than how good some of us are at Game Theory (i.e. I
better bid $3 dollars for this TE because waiver TEs are in high demand this
week with 2 top-10’s on bye, and I know those other guys who need a one-week
replacement will only want to bid $1 or $2…so I’m gonna outsmart them both by
bidding $3. Hahahahaha…suckers.)
The real question that we’re
trying to get to the bottom of here is: WHO IS GOOD AT CAPTURING FANTASY STARTER
VALUE FROM THE WAIVER WIRE? What follows
is a lightly researched and totally unscientific evaluation of players picked
up off the waiver wire. I mostly looked at guys that were purchased using FAAB
and ignored kickers and defenses but I’m sure there were some great free
pickups that I didn't bother to look up, so feel free to add them in the comments. Also, more banter
& criticism is strongly encouraged. Here we go.
· Joique Bell
(winning bid $13 by Nu Shu) – After much
promise as a split carry/goal line back in the first couple games & multiple
unsuccessful attempts at a trade with the Reggie Bush owner (Dallas), Joique is
largely a waste of FAAB dollars on the bench. Unless Reggie Bush goes down
permanently…
· Julian
Edelman (winning bid $38 by Jerks) – Jerks
really blew his wad early on this one, and she didn’t even get pregnant. You
gotta admit the theory behind this one was sound even if the bid came in over
the top – The Pats offense…Tom Brady at QB…Gronk, Hernandez, and really the
lack of ANY big-play receivers at the time, Edelman had the potential to be THE
GUY. After that first big game, I’m not really sure what happened. Only one
other game > 10 fantasy points. Last I heard, this guy was still around
somewhere. Just not on a legit fantasy roster.
· Knowshon
Moreno (winning bid $12) – Holy crap
this was an amazing pickup. At the beginning of the season the 3 Denver RBs
were literally playing Rock-Paper-Scissors to decide who got a goal line carry.
Some basic pass protection know-how from Moreno and *presto* he’s the main guy
on a high-octane Denver Bronco team and has AVERAGED 17 points/week since the September
11th pickup. Well done, Mr. Crapswell. If you’re looking for the
best FAAB pickup so far this season, you probably don’t have to read any
further.
· Julius
Thomas (winning bid $33) – This was
another high-profile FAAB bidding war after everyone’s eyes were opened week 1
to just how good the Broncos were going to be. Steep price tag at 1/3 of the
total yearly FAAB budget, but probably about right, maybe somewhat high, given
how he’s performed – solid Flex numbers, even if a bit hit/miss. If a trade to
someone in need of a decent TE could get done here more value could be
realized.
· BGE, Law
Firm (winning bid $10) – Probably
about fair price for a low-end flex option.
· DeAndre
Hopkins (winning bid $22) – After big
week 2 performance: Wow! This Hopkins kid is really good! Oh, but wait. His
quarterback throws TDs to the wrong team. This was a waste of good FAAB dollars
unless Case Keenam can learn to throw to someone with a name that’s not
Johnson.
· James Starks
(winning bid $28) – Most of us in the
league knew this one was bad when it went down. Starks proceeded to put up 5.5
points in week 3 before being replaced…Oops.
· Eddie Royal
(winning bid $17 by Dallas) – This is
another that goes in the “Oops” category. After the first 2 monster weeks with
5 total TDs, felt like I had to take a chance to see if this was for real. It
wasn’t. Royal proceeded to score between 0 and 4 points each of the next 4
weeks, but at least it led me to Keenan Allen once I realized that Old Man
Phillip Rivers is having something of a revival season. Last check: Royal
actually put up good points as a bye week replacement for Whitebread’s team
last week.
· Pierre
Thomas (winning bid $12) – Pretty
good value here as a Flex starter.
· Kansas City
D/ST (winning bid $3) – Great pickup
for the price, as the Kansas City defense is playing out of their minds. One of
the few D/STs you can just plug & play every week without a second thought.
· Greg Jennings
(winning bid $4) – If the Vikings are
a dumpster fire, Jennings is the double-walled, extra sturdy cardboard box you
purchased from Uhaul for $4 that is now inside of that dumpster.
· Rashad
Jennings (winning bid $22) – I think
Rashad Jennings and James Starks are twins! Although I think Jennings has a
real opportunity going forward and has once again been plucked off the waiver
wire…for free. This time it could turn out pretty well.
· Danny
Woodhead (winning bid $9) – Good
value pickup as a low-end RB2 or Flex starter. Has consistently put up 8-14
points each week since the pickup.
· St. Louis
D/ST (winning bid $3) – I assume this
turned out to be a good one-week replacement since they were playing
Jacksonville that weekend and put up 15 points.
· Jay Cutler
(winning bid $11) – A good pickup at
the time, as he was playing well, put up 20 points the week after pickup, but
that injury really hurt the next week. Now he’s come full-circle and is back
off waivers again. We’ll see if every NFL fan’s favorite pretty boy can get
back into the groove when he returns.
· Denarius
Moore (winning bid $16) – One nice
game against KC but “meh” since then. You probably overpaid.
· Joseph
Randle (winning bid $26) –
Fizzle…fizzle…fizzle...welcome back, DeMarco.
· Brandon
Jacobs (winning bid $24) –
Hahahahaha. AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Who would’ve guessed, an old fat guy that was
sitting on his couch watching football a few Sundays ago would come back as an
emergency fill-in and proceed to pull a hamstring.
· Chris Ivory
(winning bid $17) – Evaluation TBD.
After pickup, has had one game of 1 point and the following game with 20
points. I don’t know enough about his situation so I’ll withhold judgment for
others.
· Jarrett
Boykin (winning bid $28 by Jerks) – Well
look here who took Julian Edelman’s roster spot. Someone got a little too
excited again about a no-name WR who all of a sudden found himself stepping
into a big role on a pass-happy team with a stellar quarterback. I guess
everyone’s got their thing that they’re into, and that’s Jerks’ thing.
Unfortunately, neither of the two worked out this year. I think it’s pretty
clear at this point that Mr. Jerks will place near the top of this year’s worst
FAAB bidding/waiver wire performance.
· Jordan Reed
(winning bid $31) – Very average TE
performance of ~7 points/week in the two weeks after pickup. Lots of season
left, but tilting toward a bad pickup.
· Mike James
(winning bid $12) – This could turn
out to be a pretty dang good pickup if he keeps up the pace of 30 carries &
big yardage he got last week.
· Heath Miller
(winning bid $3) – It’s a little
known fact around the league that I picked up Heath Miller for the sole purpose
of blocking my week 8 opponent from picking him up & playing him that week.
It didn’t matter, since both Miller and the other guy that was played both only
scored ~2 points that week, but the fun of doing it was easily worth the $3 in
FAAB.
· Marvin Jones
(winning bid $22) – Is Marvin Jones
the mid-season version of Eddie Royal? After a few big weeks, his first week on
somebody’s roster netted 6.6 points, hardly worth 1/5 of a season’s FAAB
budget. This guy is a wildcard, and final evaluation is TBD.
· Kendall
Wright (winning bid $15) – Probably
overpaid for this low-end Flex guy that is a consistent 6-9 points.
· Emmanuel
Sanders (winning bid $19) – Two nice,
productive weeks in a row. I’m sure it would help if Big Ben could stay alive the
rest of the season.
· Alex Smith
(winning bid $8) – I’m not sure the
current King of Game Management actually belongs on a 10-team league fantasy
roster, as evidenced by his 5.6 point performance against the Buffalo Bills
last week. But, hey, good luck to you. As a side note, it’s really sad when you
long for an Alex Smith-type Game Manager of a quarterback rather than the crap
under center we currently have playing for the Vikings.
And that brings us to this
week’s pickups, who everybody massively overpaid for. Apparently most of the
league is satisfied with their team at this point in the season and no longer
interested in FAAB bidding. Let’s see it
- Nick Foles to Riley Cooper all weekend long! Whoo!! It’s getting late and I’m
running out of material, so continue the banter in comments below, especially
about free pickups. So long from Oklahoma!
